Hurricane Maria

40% of the ECMWF ensembles have at least a glancing blow of a US landfall now.

When?

within the next 3-4 days

Yeah, not looking good for the outer banks again this morning.  Looking better for a sharp ots turn after that, though.  Good for us.

Models stayed the course today, which means most likely effects on CONUS would be some outer band outer banks action.  NHC has issued a trop storm watch for the outer banks.

Meanwhile, some storm images.

Photo is (was) the NWS NOAA radar at San Juan, PR.  NOAA radar towers are designed to survive cat 4 storms.  The last time a unit was completely distroyed like this was Miami's, 25 years ago in Andrew.  Note both the outer dome and the dish inside are gone.

Then a satellite image from this evening just to give an idea of the scale of the storm.

Maria weakened substantially overnight.