Will driverless cars ever actually be a thing?

drummerboy said:

Buses seem problematic. How does it know when to stop to pick up passengers? Does it just make every stop? How does it know when all passengers for a stop have embarked/disembarked?

I dunno. Driverless car technology seems to be a solution in search of a problem. The only thing I see plausible at this point is long haul trucking on the highway, with maybe live drivers doing the first/last mile. But even there, is it going to be so financially advantageous to be worth the effort? Especially thinking about how much it will cost when the first, inevitable, deadly collision occurs.

Seems like more tractable problems to solve than private self-driving cars, with a much larger public-good payoff for solving them? Less profit to be made of course, which is why we're figuring out how to help Musk build bitcoin-powered personal Mars rovers instead.

"The streetcar is a mode of public transportation that is having a major comeback. It involves running short electric trains along tracks in the roadway. Some operate by connecting to an electric cable overhead. While popular in the early 1900s in the US, streetcars' popularity faded by midcentury. However, after 2000, the streetcar experienced a resurgence in the US, with dozens of cities building and planning new streetcar systems."

https://www.vox.com/2018/7/13/17570156/us-streetcar-trend-public-transportation

The one reason I'm not sure you get traction with something like a minibus rideshare, even if it was door-to-door, is we're coming out of a pandemic right now. People aren't as keen to get in an enclosed space with strangers for any length of time. But a variety of solutions is what's needed, I think. 

mrincredible said:

The one reason I'm not sure you get traction with something like a minibus rideshare, even if it was door-to-door, is we're coming out of a pandemic right now. People aren't as keen to get in an enclosed space with strangers for any length of time. But a variety of solutions is what's needed, I think. 

 Well yes -- I assume our bright future of autonomous transit encompasses a somewhat longer time scale than the ongoing pandemic ;-)

drummerboy said:

wedjet said:

Tesla driverless car in the news.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/2-killed-in-driverless-tesla-car-crash-officials-say/ar-BB1fMSwV?ocid=ob-fb-enus-280&fbclid=IwAR36gZZbA9RTApXBMOlv73yvPJQ_t7fSr7I_SVi9hMetTcXt3fiVq5oix54

 You read my mind.

Tesla has two major problems.

1) How to make the driverless option reliable.

2) How to keep its cars from bursting into flames.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/apr/19/two-die-in-tesla-crash-no-one-in-drivers-seat-police

Two men died after a Tesla vehicle, which was believed to be operating without anyone in the driver’s seat, crashed into a tree north of Houston, authorities said.

“There was no one in the driver’s seat,” Sgt Cinthya Umanzor of the Harris County Constable Precinct 4 said of the crash on Saturday night.

The 2019 Tesla Model S was traveling at high speed when it failed to negotiate a curve and went off the roadway, crashing to a tree and bursting into flames, local television station KHOU-TV said.

After the fire was extinguished, authorities located two passengers, with one in the front passenger seat while the other was in the back seat of the Tesla, the report said, citing Harris County Precinct 4 police officer Mark Herman.

Tesla and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The accident came amid growing scrutiny over Tesla’s semi-automated driving system following recent accidents and as it is preparing to launch its updated “full self-driving” software to more customers.

The US auto safety agency said in March it has opened 27 investigations into crashes of Tesla vehicles. At least three of the crashes occurred recently.

The Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, said in January that he expects huge profits from its full self-driving software, saying he is “highly confident the car will be able to drive itself with reliability in excess of human this year”.

The self-driving technology must overcome safety and regulatory hurdles to achieve commercial success.

Umanzor said the two crash victims were born in 1962 and 1951.

I wonder how Dominos will get away with driverless vehicles? 

https://www.usatoday.com/videos/money/2021/04/12/dominos-pizza-delivery-robots-undergo-driverless-test-runs/7195381002/

Here they are testing the concept in 2017:

This thread is kind of funny in that I'll bet the average age of the posters is over 65, and you are all so certain that this technology is useless and unnecessary.  There is a possibility that a lot of people disagree with you, and they may be the ones who will actually live with the technology.

FilmCarp said:

This thread is kind of funny in that I'll bet the average age of the posters is over 65, and you are all so certain that this technology is useless and unnecessary.  There is a possibility that a lot of people disagree with you, and they may be the ones who will actually live with the technology.

 Nope. Try again.

FilmCarp said:

This thread is kind of funny in that I'll bet the average age of the posters is over 65, and you are all so certain that this technology is useless and unnecessary.  There is a possibility that a lot of people disagree with you, and they may be the ones who will actually live with the technology.

 Having watched the internet, a truly amazing leap forward in communication technology, go from promising a profound social revolution to instead becoming in many ways a dangerous accelerant of pre-existing pathologies and divisions, I'm hoping for a more thoughtful, grounded relationship with technology. Seeing how self-driving AI is currently being marketed and directed, I'm just not too excited at what looks like, in the end, an unimaginative doubling down on the mistake of tech revolutions past. Is the ability to seal ourselves off into individual pods where we can be free from having to pay the least bit of attention to the world as it flashes by outside really the best way forward?

Elon Musk tweeted that the Autopilot was not enabled. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/elon-musk-autopilot-not-used-in-texas-tesla-crash.html

Not sure what our age has to do with it. Wisdom is wisdom. 

cramer said:

Elon Musk tweeted that the Autopilot was not enabled. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/elon-musk-autopilot-not-used-in-texas-tesla-crash.html

Not sure what to do with that.  Musk is an idiot for not realizing autopilot needs to be fool proof.

Look at all of the crashes due to poor driving that occur every day.  But the one due to autopilot is what you talk about.  In my opinion Tesla is not the place to look here.  Musk is a self promoting showman, and a good one.  But every main stream automaker is adding sensors and technology towards eventually reaching that goal.  Right now it is smart cruise control, lane assist stuff, and self parking.  Eventually it will arrive.  It may be some company like Subaru that actually makes it work.  Who knows.

I'm a relative oldster yet I look at this thread, and this tech, and think "this is already here" notwithstanding the obvious kinks that have to be worked out.  This is the way tech evolves, with trial and error and leaps and setbacks.  Probably two years ago a good friend was telling me about a German business acquaintance who traveled across Europe in a self-driving car.  This is not science fiction.

cramer said:

Elon Musk tweeted that the Autopilot was not enabled. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/elon-musk-autopilot-not-used-in-texas-tesla-crash.html

 Well according to a first responder, there was no one in the drivers seat. Who was driving? Casper?

Wasn't looking for it but just noticed this article:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/04/who-will-win-the-self-driving-race-here-are-8-possibilities/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

I'm still not clear on what problem driverless cars are trying to solve. Most disruptive technologies have a clear purpose and benefit - what's this one?

drummerboy said:

I'm still not clear on what problem driverless cars are trying to solve. Most disruptive technologies have a clear purpose and benefit - what's this one?

 Ultimately, they should be safer and more efficient.

Steve said:

drummerboy said:

I'm still not clear on what problem driverless cars are trying to solve. Most disruptive technologies have a clear purpose and benefit - what's this one?

 Ultimately, they should be safer and more efficient.

I guess, but that's been the trajectory of vehicle technology anyway. And as for safer, it's kind of like herd immunity - what percentage of cars need to be autonomous before, for example, the number of traffic deaths come down significantly?

Cars have gotten so much safer, but the great weakness is the driver.  That's the problem that they are trying to fix.

drummerboy said:

I guess, but that's been the trajectory of vehicle technology anyway. And as for safer, it's kind of like herd immunity - what percentage of cars need to be autonomous before, for example, the number of traffic deaths come down significantly?

Even adding in current features like crash detection/avoidance and the back up sensors are helping already.

Steve said:

drummerboy said:

I guess, but that's been the trajectory of vehicle technology anyway. And as for safer, it's kind of like herd immunity - what percentage of cars need to be autonomous before, for example, the number of traffic deaths come down significantly?

Even adding in current features like crash detection/avoidance and the back up sensors are helping already.

 Agreed.

FilmCarp said:

Cars have gotten so much safer, but the great weakness is the driver.  That's the problem that they are trying to fix.

 You mean like the drivers who text, program their GPS, look up phone numbers, eat, put on make-up, etc. etc.?

My all time favorite, was the commercial truck driver who reported an SVU driven by a man with a cell phone in his ear, and a laptop balanced on the steering wheel, while driving on I80.

tomcat said:

FilmCarp said:

Cars have gotten so much safer, but the great weakness is the driver.  That's the problem that they are trying to fix.

 You mean like the drivers who text, program their GPS, look up phone numbers, eat, put on make-up, etc. etc.?

My all time favorite, was the commercial truck driver who reported an SVU driven by a man with a cell phone in his ear, and a laptop balanced on the steering wheel, while driving on I80.

 And let's not forget the drinking.  And falling asleep at the wheel. Driverless cars won't do that.

Aside from potential safety improvements, I think there are advantages for seniors who want to age in place without relying on a family member for Mobility. Like I was saying before, either privately owned or Rideshare capable autonomous electric cars for local transport could be a huge help to someone who is aging. 

an autonomous vehicle whizzing down the highway at 70 miles an hour certainly Garners headlines, but I don't think it's as practical as something a lot more local and unsexy.

mrincredible said:

Aside from potential safety improvements, I think there are advantages for seniors who want to age in place without relying on a family member for Mobility. Like I was saying before, either privately owned or Rideshare capable autonomous electric cars for local transport could be a huge help to someone who is aging. 

an autonomous vehicle whizzing down the highway at 70 miles an hour certainly Garners headlines, but I don't think it's as practical as something a lot more local and unsexy.

 I think from a technical point of view it will be far easier to get self driving cars working effectively on interstates and other limited access roads.  Local driving is very difficult for autonomous cars.  And in any case, the driver has to be prepared to take over so I don't think transportation for elderly folks is going to be high on the list.

It's hard for us to envision the progress that will be made in any given technology.  I think of those comic montage films of goofy looking pre-Wright brothers planes crashing immediately or never getting off the ground.  Looking at Tesla's screw ups and saying "this will never work" is like looking at those planes and saying we will never fly.

bub said:

It's hard for us to envision the progress that will be made in any given technology.  I think of those comic montage films of goofy looking pre-Wright brothers planes crashing immediately or never getting off the ground.  Looking at Tesla's screw ups and saying "this will never work" is like looking at those planes and saying we will never fly.

 Oh, I totally believe autonomous vehicles will happen. My criticism is really twofold.

First, I think many autonomous vehicle proponents, and Musk in particular, are being irresponsible with safety. I don't think the great potential this technology offers suddenly makes it ok to be callous with peoples' lives.

Second, I feel we just have a general failure of imagination here. Human drivers are prone to error and distraction, and this is part of what makes cars dangerous, but what's most dangerous about cars the actual cars. Let me give a non-self-driving vehicle example to illustrate what I mean. I recently got a survey around making West Orange streets safer. The questions were pretty dumb - basically around making sure people know about laws like making sure pedestrians only cross at crosswalks, not using your phone when driving or crossing the street, etc. And sure, I guess those kinds of rules help at the margins, and in a future where cars are self-driving those rules become more effective, but what really makes West Orange streets unsafe is that many of them are outright hostile to any use beyond private vehicles. Sidewalks don't exist, or abruptly stop on one side of a busy street, or just disappear entirely. Where crosswalks exist they often are over wide roads at weird angles where you're always having to look over your shoulder to double check no one is about to turn into you. Things like that. Our streets are unsafe because they're meant for machines, not people.

What do self-driving cars, on their own, do to make streets less hostile to humans? Not much. We just assume that our current built environment of atomized individuals encased in self-contained pods is the ideal, and that the problem we need to solve is how to further optimize that paradigm. But revolutionary technologies present us with an opportunity to think bigger. What kind of future do we actually want?

FilmCarp said:

 I think from a technical point of view it will be far easier to get self driving cars working effectively on interstates and other limited access roads.  Local driving is very difficult for autonomous cars.  And in any case, the driver has to be prepared to take over so I don't think transportation for elderly folks is going to be high on the list.

Fair enough. I'm seeing the situation though my own lens of having a 87-year-old dad who has to be driven to dialysis thrice a week. My mom still drives but it's a lot to put on her. That's the problem that hits me personally. Maybe the autonomous solution I'm looking for is too far away for me.

PVW said:

 What do self-driving cars, on their own, do to make streets less hostile to humans? Not much. We just assume that our current built environment of atomized individuals encased in self-contained pods is the ideal, and that the problem we need to solve is how to further optimize that paradigm. But revolutionary technologies present us with an opportunity to think bigger. What kind of future do we actually want?

While I agree with you that the roads are designed for vehicles and not pedestrians, bicycles, or others, autonomous vehicles should be better and more efficient at detecting and avoiding pedestrians, etc.