WHITHER THE REPUBLICAN PARTY

Smedley said:
I can’t tell if alex4855 is an irrationally exuberant MAGAer or some Russian bot lol. 
That said, while Trump’s 2020 re-election is hardly “assured”, i believe that he probably would win were the election held tomorrow. His first 17 months have not been disastrous in the national view, and as alluded to previously, there is no savior on the democratic side. At least not at this time.

 Doesn't it depend on his opponent. You can't beat someone with no one. But alex wants to put his money on someone whose popularity is under 50%.

LOST said:

Smedley said:
I can’t tell if alex4855 is an irrationally exuberant MAGAer or some Russian bot lol. 
That said, while Trump’s 2020 re-election is hardly “assured”, i believe that he probably would win were the election held tomorrow. His first 17 months have not been disastrous in the national view, and as alluded to previously, there is no savior on the democratic side. At least not at this time.

 Doesn't it depend on his opponent. You can't beat someone with no one. But alex wants to put his money on someone whose popularity is under 50%.

So were Reagan and Obama, according to polls, at this point in their first terms. It’s really not worth the bother, either way.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Smedley said:
I can’t tell if alex4855 is an irrationally exuberant MAGAer or some Russian bot lol. 
That said, while Trump’s 2020 re-election is hardly “assured”, i believe that he probably would win were the election held tomorrow. His first 17 months have not been disastrous in the national view, and as alluded to previously, there is no savior on the democratic side. At least not at this time.

 Neither, he's a troll.

DaveSchmidt said:

LOST said:

Smedley said:
I can’t tell if alex4855 is an irrationally exuberant MAGAer or some Russian bot lol. 
That said, while Trump’s 2020 re-election is hardly “assured”, i believe that he probably would win were the election held tomorrow. His first 17 months have not been disastrous in the national view, and as alluded to previously, there is no savior on the democratic side. At least not at this time.

 Doesn't it depend on his opponent. You can't beat someone with no one. But alex wants to put his money on someone whose popularity is under 50%.

So were Reagan and Obama, according to polls, at this point in their first terms. It’s really not worth the bother, either way.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

 A little of both, with a twist of champagne liberal when it suits me.   Opponent??- the Democrats will again conspire to  kill the better of their candidates to appease contributor interests (they are short $$$)- a little rich kid's club.  The Republicans will try to dump Trump, again failing- they can't help themselves.  Trump's getting re-elected is a very good bet.

https://predictit.org/Market/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

ridski said:

Smedley said:
I can’t tell if alex4855 is an irrationally exuberant MAGAer or some Russian bot lol. 
That said, while Trump’s 2020 re-election is hardly “assured”, i believe that he probably would win were the election held tomorrow. His first 17 months have not been disastrous in the national view, and as alluded to previously, there is no savior on the democratic side. At least not at this time.

 Neither, he's a troll.

   Name calling gets you nowhere, you bugaboo!

Alex,

I do not know who you are but will go on the assumption that you are a local and sincere in your beliefs, but really?

alex4855 said:

The Republicans will try to dump Trump, again failing- they can't help themselves. 

 What Republicans are you talking about? Trump has taken control of the Party and almost all of them are either supportive or afraid of him. A political party has not dumped an incumbent President since the mid 19th Century. Anyone who tries is crazy.

LOST said:
Alex,
I do not know who you are but will go on the assumption that you are a local and sincere in your beliefs, but really?

alex4855 said:

The Republicans will try to dump Trump, again failing- they can't help themselves. 

 What Republicans are you talking about? Trump has taken control of the Party and almost all of them are either supportive or afraid of him. A political party has not dumped an incumbent President since the mid 19th Century. Anyone who tries is crazy.

No names needed.  The party is full of non-Trumpers, and any effort resulting from a  real opportunity to shadow / isolate him will prove their demise.  If there is no blue wave this mid term season (and it looks doubtful), his re-election is sealed.

1st. There are hardly more than a few non-Trumpers in the Party and they have been marginalized.

2nd. A "blue wave" might end up helping him more than if the Republicans keep a Majority in the House. Whether there is a slight Dem majority or a slight GOP majority they will not be able to accomplish much of anything. If it's Dems Trump runs for re-election against the "do-nothing" Congress ala Truman in 1948. 

alex4855 said:

No names needed.  The party is full of non-Trumpers, and any effort resulting from a  real opportunity to shadow / isolate him will prove their demise.  If there is no blue wave this mid term season (and it looks doubtful), his re-election is sealed.

I know you like to troll folks here, but making definitive statements like this about 2020, without knowing if he will be challenged from within GOP, who his Democratic opponent it, what the results of the trade war is going to be, what the state of the economy is in 2020, how his health is going to be, what if anything comes out of the Russian probe, what legal trouble he will face, is somewhat, eh, unrealistic.

gerritn said:

alex4855 said:

No names needed.  The party is full of non-Trumpers, and any effort resulting from a  real opportunity to shadow / isolate him will prove their demise.  If there is no blue wave this mid term season (and it looks doubtful), his re-election is sealed.

I know you like to troll folks here, but making definitive statements like this about 2020, without knowing if he will be challenged from within GOP, who his Democratic opponent it, what the results of the trade war is going to be, what the state of the economy is in 2020, how his health is going to be, what if anything comes out of the Russian probe, what legal trouble he will face, is somewhat, eh, unrealistic.

I wonder how you invest.

LOST said:
1st. There are hardly more than a few non-Trumpers in the Party and they have been marginalized.
2nd. A "blue wave" might end up helping him more than if the Republicans keep a Majority in the House. Whether there is a slight Dem majority or a slight GOP majority they will not be able to accomplish much of anything. If it's Dems Trump runs for re-election against the "do-nothing" Congress ala Truman in 1948. 

 If Dems take the House, investigations continue with their finding being far more public. I think the depth of corruption revealed in the two years leading up to 2020 would put a serious dent in Trump's approval ratings. A Democratic House would be a serious threat to Trump's re-election.

PVW said:

 If Dems take the House, investigations continue with their finding being far more public. I think the depth of corruption revealed in the two years leading up to 2020 would put a serious dent in Trump's approval ratings. A Democratic House would be a serious threat to Trump's re-election.

 Maybe, and maybe the public will grow sick of the investigations. Trump supporters will, of course, consider it all fake news. Those of us on the other side already know how corrupt he is.

They key to defeating Trump is motivating those whose voting participation is usually low to come out and vote, namely racial minorities and youth. The Republicans did a post-mortem after 2012 and concluded that unless they increased their share of the Latino vote they were doomed. Trump turned that on its head by attacking Latinos and motivating those who feel threatened by them. The question is how long such a strategy can work.

alex4855 said:

gerritn said:

alex4855 said:

No names needed.  The party is full of non-Trumpers, and any effort resulting from a  real opportunity to shadow / isolate him will prove their demise.  If there is no blue wave this mid term season (and it looks doubtful), his re-election is sealed.

I know you like to troll folks here, but making definitive statements like this about 2020, without knowing if he will be challenged from within GOP, who his Democratic opponent it, what the results of the trade war is going to be, what the state of the economy is in 2020, how his health is going to be, what if anything comes out of the Russian probe, what legal trouble he will face, is somewhat, eh, unrealistic.

I wonder how you invest.

It's amazing what you can do with data these days, you should try it.

LOST said:

PVW said:

 If Dems take the House, investigations continue with their finding being far more public. I think the depth of corruption revealed in the two years leading up to 2020 would put a serious dent in Trump's approval ratings. A Democratic House would be a serious threat to Trump's re-election.

 Maybe, and maybe the public will grow sick of the investigations. Trump supporters will, of course, consider it all fake news. Those of us on the other side already know how corrupt he is.
They key to defeating Trump is motivating those whose voting participation is usually low to come out and vote, namely racial minorities and youth. The Republicans did a post-mortem after 2012 and concluded that unless they increased their share of the Latino vote they were doomed. Trump turned that on its head by attacking Latinos and motivating those who feel threatened by them. The question is how long such a strategy can work.

If I had to guess, the factor that has the biggest impact on Trump's re-election is the economy. What he should fear above anything else are rising inflation, rising unemployment, and declining economic growth. There is a small change for that to happen before mid terms, there is a much better chance for that to happen before 2020.

gerritn said:

LOST said:

PVW said:

 If Dems take the House, investigations continue with their finding being far more public. I think the depth of corruption revealed in the two years leading up to 2020 would put a serious dent in Trump's approval ratings. A Democratic House would be a serious threat to Trump's re-election.

 Maybe, and maybe the public will grow sick of the investigations. Trump supporters will, of course, consider it all fake news. Those of us on the other side already know how corrupt he is.
They key to defeating Trump is motivating those whose voting participation is usually low to come out and vote, namely racial minorities and youth. The Republicans did a post-mortem after 2012 and concluded that unless they increased their share of the Latino vote they were doomed. Trump turned that on its head by attacking Latinos and motivating those who feel threatened by them. The question is how long such a strategy can work.

If I had to guess, the factor that has the biggest impact on Trump's re-election is the economy. What he should fear above anything else are rising inflation, rising unemployment, and declining economic growth. There is a small change for that to happen before mid terms, there is a much better chance for that to happen before 2020.

Agree. The economy is cyclical and right now we are late in an expansion cycle. Maybe it stays strong til nov 2020, maybe it doesn’t. If there is a significant downturn, trump is probably toast. 

Just look at george h w Bush. I think he had like >80% approval rating in 1991 in the wake of Desert Storm. But the economy sh*t the bed late in his term and he lost to bubba in 92.

LOST said:

PVW said:

 If Dems take the House, investigations continue with their finding being far more public. I think the depth of corruption revealed in the two years leading up to 2020 would put a serious dent in Trump's approval ratings. A Democratic House would be a serious threat to Trump's re-election.

 Maybe, and maybe the public will grow sick of the investigations. Trump supporters will, of course, consider it all fake news. Those of us on the other side already know how corrupt he is.
They key to defeating Trump is motivating those whose voting participation is usually low to come out and vote, namely racial minorities and youth. The Republicans did a post-mortem after 2012 and concluded that unless they increased their share of the Latino vote they were doomed. Trump turned that on its head by attacking Latinos and motivating those who feel threatened by them. The question is how long such a strategy can work.

 Do you think Trump's base gets their news from Fox cable or Fox network? If cable, then of course it's Hannity and the Judge who wield influence. If Channel 5, then I imagine most of the topics we dissect are not even mentioned in the typical hour news show, squeezing in sports and the weather. I'm curious about the messaging.

I think Trump supporters get their "news" from Trump and Fox Cable.

And no matter how the economy is actually doing in 2020 Trump will say that it s doing great and any Trump supporter who isn't actually homeless or on a bread line will probably buy it. 

Or he'll blame the Democrats and his supporters will agree.

I'm worried about the Dems finding the right candidate. I say that because I have no clue who will make everyone happy. I had a variety of hopes last year. Told myself that Trump would get bored and leave office early, or that he would be impeached or that his base would find him to be a fraud. I'm not as confident now, and I'm hanging all of my hopes on the Dems finding a rock star of a candidate that will make us all wildly enthusiastic. I am staring at every congressional hearing and every guest on the news shows and looking for the magic. So far the genie is still in the bottle.

LOST said:
I think Trump supporters get their "news" from Trump and Fox Cable.
And no matter how the economy is actually doing in 2020 Trump will say that it s doing great and any Trump supporter who isn't actually homeless or on a bread line will probably buy it. 
Or he'll blame the Democrats and his supporters will agree.

 Trump will say whatever fits his narrative.  When good job numbers were reported under Obama, they were "fake news."  Now the good job numbers are "great news" and all because of Trump.

Morganna said:
I'm worried about the Dems finding the right candidate. I say that because I have no clue who will make everyone happy. I had a variety of hopes last year. Told myself that Trump would get bored and leave office early, or that he would be impeached or that his base would find him to be a fraud. I'm not as confident now, and I'm hanging all of my hopes on the Dems finding any rock star of a candidate that will make us all wildly enthusiastic. I am staring at every congressional hearing and every guest on the news shows and looking for the magic. So far the genie is still in the bottle.

 The Democratic Party has plenty of qualified candidates.  Once its leaders conspire to eliminate the better ones, your genie will emerge. 

alex4855 said:

Morganna said:
I'm worried about the Dems finding the right candidate. I say that because I have no clue who will make everyone happy. I had a variety of hopes last year. Told myself that Trump would get bored and leave office early, or that he would be impeached or that his base would find him to be a fraud. I'm not as confident now, and I'm hanging all of my hopes on the Dems finding any rock star of a candidate that will make us all wildly enthusiastic. I am staring at every congressional hearing and every guest on the news shows and looking for the magic. So far the genie is still in the bottle.

 The Democratic Party has plenty of qualified candidates.  Once its leaders conspire to eliminate the better ones, your genie will emerge. 

 I see people that I like but I'm not certain that the majority of Dems will chose them. I see a few that I feel would make good VP candidates that are not quite ready for the Presidential slot. For that matter I'm not certain that we all agree on who the leaders are. I hear age discussed frequently and if it is a main consideration it knocks  out a few popular qualified candidates.

Who do you think are the best qualified?

I usually  look at the candidates from both parties during the primaries and make my picks. I never miss a debate. Good thing that I don't gamble as I was completely surprised by the results. The Republicans that I knew agreed with me that Kasich would have been a good pick but again by the time NJ & NY got to vote he had dropped out. I thought Rubio might rise, with his pick Nikki Haley at his side but he got lost in the shuffle.

Who did you like among the GOP candidates?

alex4855 said:
 The Democratic Party has plenty of qualified candidates.  Once its leaders conspire to eliminate the better ones, your genie will emerge. 

 Oh great, it's Debbie Downer again

Bad day for the the snowflakes of Mapso....#MAGA

https://www.propublica.org/article/children-separated-from-parents-border-patrol-cbp-trump-immigration-policy

What a disgrace for America

Should the title of this thread be Whither or Wither?

.

I agree, what a disgrace. Not sure why Obama didn't do something about it when he had a chance.

ramsraymond72 said:
I agree, what a disgrace. Not sure why Obama didn't do something about it when he had a chance.

At the end of every possible argument remains the fact that the Trump Administration made a decision to make life hard for human beings attempting the cross the border including the monstrous policy of breaking up families.  They did not have to do this.

1. I notice you did not elude to the fact that Obama could have fixed the law. He kept the illegal immigrants in cages but you seem to have selective amnesia.

2. I notice that you don't use the word illegal when discussing this situation on the border.

3.Typical.

ramsraymond72 said:
1. I notice you did not elude to the fact that Obama could have fixed the law. He kept the illegal immigrants in cages but you seem to have selective amnesia.
2. I notice that you don't use the word illegal when discussing this situation on the border.
3.Typical.

 Stop the nonsense. Neither Obama or Bush enforced the law in this manner. Further Bush tried to reform immigration laws and his own Party stopped him. They certainly would have stopped Obama. In fact they might stop Trump.