What does Putin want (and whatabout it)

nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

Glad that my post generated so much interest in Andrew Latham. But surprised (or maybe not) that no interest has been expressed in the same post's quote of Gen Petraeus, a hawk, that suggests a shift in military thinking toward acknowledging that Ukraine may have to give up territory to end the war.

Nobody's actually interested in Andrew Latham's views, but your reliance on one of his old columns prompted other people here to do the background reading that you didn't do.

Yes, Petraeus said something. Unlike yourself, others here don't take everything he says on any topic as Gospel.

"Petraeus said something". Wow. Are you sure?

Edited to add: If you do your "research" on Petraeus, you'll find that you agree with him on Ukraine far more than I do. His quote is especially important as a "statement against interest". In other words, it would be like @nohero acknowledging that Ukraine may have to give up territory.


Steve said:

paulsurovell said:

Glad that my post generated so much interest in Andrew Latham. But surprised (or maybe not) that no interest has been expressed in the same post's quote of Gen Petraeus, a hawk, that suggests a shift in military thinking toward acknowledging that Ukraine may have to give up territory to end the war.

You do realize that Petraeus said that Russia needs to get punched in the face a few more times until it realizes that it needs to negotiate a resolution.  What he didn't say - and what everyone here has been saying - is that Russia is ready, willing, and able to negotiate a settlement now that leaves Ukraine an independent nation.

He did say Russia needs to get punched in the face, but he also said Ukraine may have to give up territory. The punched-in-the-face is old Petraeus news. The give-up-territory is new Petraeus news.


nohero said:

Scott Ritter is going to be there with the other Raging Phonies Hating Ukraine, and it promises to be absolutely disgusting. 

Yeah, this is bad tendency of Scott Ritter. And I agree it's hateful. He could and actually should, be kicked off Twitter for this. Too bad, because most of what he says is valid and vital to understand what's going on in the war. Going on Twitter now..


paulsurovell said:

nohero said:

Scott Ritter is going to be there with the other Raging Phonies Hating Ukraine, and it promises to be absolutely disgusting. 

Yeah, this is bad tendency of Scott Ritter. And I agree it's hateful. He could and actually should, be kicked off Twitter for this. Too bad, because most of what he says is valid and vital to understand what's going on in the war. Going on Twitter now..

Sorry, Paul, but if Ritter says it, it's the same as if you said it.

I don't make the rules, these are what you say the rules are. 

paulsurovell said:

"Petraeus said something". Wow. Are you sure?

Edited to add: If you do your "research" on Petraeus, you'll find that you agree with him on Ukraine far more than I do. His quote is especially important as a "statement against interest". In other words, it would be like @nohero acknowledging that Ukraine may have to give up territory.


nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

nohero said:

Scott Ritter is going to be there with the other Raging Phonies Hating Ukraine, and it promises to be absolutely disgusting. 

Yeah, this is bad tendency of Scott Ritter. And I agree it's hateful. He could and actually should, be kicked off Twitter for this. Too bad, because most of what he says is valid and vital to understand what's going on in the war. Going on Twitter now..

Sorry, Paul, but if Ritter says it, it's the same as if you said it.

I don't make the rules, these are what you say the rules are. 

Sorry, but that attempted comparison with what I said is a fail.

YOU: Yes, Petraeus said something. Unlike yourself, others here don't take everything he says on any topic as Gospel.

ME: If you do your "research" on Petraeus, you'll find that you agree with him on Ukraine far more than I do. His quote is especially important as a "statement against interest". In other words, it would be like @nohero acknowledging that Ukraine may have to give up territory.



I have never cited Petraeus as support for anything.

Ritter said out loud what you want to be kept quiet, we get it.


nohero said:

nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

The Code Pink women are lead organizers of the DC rally that you included in your post, so you smeared them along with Aaron and Max.

If they're "lead organizers" then they're smearing themselves by assembling this group. It's like Hedley Lamarr putting together his army in "Blazing Saddles".

Code Pink is no longer on the list of the "coalition" for the Raging Against Ukraine rally on February 19.

Maybe Paul can let us know what happened with that.

Rage Against the War Machine (rageagainstwar.com)

Not only is Code Pink no longer on the list of the "coalition" of the "Raging Hatred of Ukrainians" rally on February 19, but Medea Benjamin is no longer on the speaker list.

But with Scott Ritter, Tulsi Gabbard, and Jimmy Dore, why would she stay away from them?

https://rageagainstwar.com/#Speakers


nohero said:

I have never cited Petraeus as support for anything.

Ritter said out loud what you want to be kept quiet, we get it.

I didn't say you cited Petraeus I said your views are much closer to his than mine are. And you know that.

Ritter made a reprehensible statement that shouldn't be said or kept quiet. That's my view. And you know that.


nohero said:

nohero said:

nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

The Code Pink women are lead organizers of the DC rally that you included in your post, so you smeared them along with Aaron and Max.

If they're "lead organizers" then they're smearing themselves by assembling this group. It's like Hedley Lamarr putting together his army in "Blazing Saddles".

Code Pink is no longer on the list of the "coalition" for the Raging Against Ukraine rally on February 19.

Maybe Paul can let us know what happened with that.

Rage Against the War Machine (rageagainstwar.com)

Not only is Code Pink no longer on the list of the "coalition" of the "Raging Hatred of Ukrainians" rally on February 19, but Medea Benjamin is no longer on the speaker list.

But with Scott Ritter, Tulsi Gabbard, and Jimmy Dore, why would she stay away from them?

https://rageagainstwar.com/#Speakers

Please include Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Hedges, Anne Wright, David Swanson and Wyatt Reed, in future references to the speakers list.

Before you go off on Ron Paul, please don't forget to mention that he collaborated with Barney Frank, and many other Democrats in the House on many occasions.


paulsurovell said:

nohero said:

nohero said:

nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

The Code Pink women are lead organizers of the DC rally that you included in your post, so you smeared them along with Aaron and Max.

If they're "lead organizers" then they're smearing themselves by assembling this group. It's like Hedley Lamarr putting together his army in "Blazing Saddles".

Code Pink is no longer on the list of the "coalition" for the Raging Against Ukraine rally on February 19.

Maybe Paul can let us know what happened with that.

Rage Against the War Machine (rageagainstwar.com)

Not only is Code Pink no longer on the list of the "coalition" of the "Raging Hatred of Ukrainians" rally on February 19, but Medea Benjamin is no longer on the speaker list.

But with Scott Ritter, Tulsi Gabbard, and Jimmy Dore, why would she stay away from them?

https://rageagainstwar.com/#Speakers

Please include Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Hedges, Anne Wright, David Swanson and Wyatt Reed, in future references to the speakers list.

Before you go off on Ron Paul, please don't forget to mention that he collaborated with Barney Frank, and many other Democrats in the House on many occasions.

whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout whatabout


paulsurovell said:

He did say Russia needs to get punched in the face, but he also said Ukraine may have to give up territory. The punched-in-the-face is old Petraeus news. The give-up-territory is new Petraeus news.

But what he said is that Russia is not currently willing to negotiate anything.  We've been pointing that out to you for nearly a year now and you still either don't get or won't acknowledge that fact.  Furthermore, it's not said what Petraeus thinks Ukraine would have to give up.  I'm fairly certain it's not nearly what you think it is in terms of land mass or population.


I'd guess most people, if they had to guess, think ultimately Ukraine will end up with less territory than in held in 2013. But most people also realize that how much territory Ukraine ends up holding will be decided by Ukrainian force of arms, because Russia is certainly not going to give Ukraine anything, and never was interested in doing so.

Ukraine's certainly surprised most people (including me) with how effective their military has been. While recovering all of their territory still seems like a long shot, it's no longer the completely implausible goal it seemed before. Still, given Russia's unrelenting aggression, I think we're quite far from being able to glimpse what any final settlement will look like.

Ukraine continues to enhance its forces with more sophisticated western equipment. Russia is countering with sheer numbers, but so far they've been spending half a year getting an incredible number of Russians killed to try and take Bakhmut. Probably they'll eventually capture it, but that's a pretty poor showing for the number of lives and other resources devoted to that; I can't see that as a sustainable strategy. If that's the extent of what overwhelming numbers can get Russia, that doesn't bode well for their overall war aims.


Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennet reports that the US, France, Germany and UK blocked a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine, choosing instead to keep "striking Putin," during negotiations that Bennet was mediating.

Below are excerpts from a 4-hour interview at the following link. You can select the entire transcript under "Share" and "English subtitles" under "Setting" if they don't come up from this link. There is an extensive discussion about Bennet's visits to Russia and his talks with Putin.

2:56:51

we can divide the spectrum of leaders, who's tending more towards

"now we have to fight Putin."

2:56:58

Because we mustn't reward

the bad guys. –Right. And who says, "forget war,

everyone loses."-Right.

2:57:05

Boris Johnson adopted

the aggressive line.

2:57:12

Macron and Scholz

were more pragmatic

2:57:18

and Biden was both. And… that's it.

2:57:25

Then I return to Israel

and a negotiations marathon of drafts begins.

2:57:31

Now…

-Your office deals with this? Not the foreign ministry or…

-The NSC.

2:57:37

And I do everything vis a vis…

2:57:43

the NSC and… with Shimrit. I update…

[ . . . ]

2:59:28

It went back and forth and then…

2:59:34

I'll say this in the broad sense, I think there was

a legitimate decision by the West

2:59:43

to keep striking Putin

and not...

2:59:51

"Strike Putin?"

Putin was striking Ukraine. Hold on, yes, but given… I mean the more aggressive approach.

I'll tell you something?

2:59:59

I can't say if they were wrong. Maybe other thugs in the world

would see it. My position at the time…

3:00:07

in this regard,

it's not a national Israeli interest. Unlike the consulate or Iran,

3:00:12

when I'm concerned about Israel,

I stand firm. –Yes. Here, I don’t have a say. I'm just the mediator,

3:00:19

but I turn to America

in this regard, I don’t do as I please.

3:00:25

Anything I did was coordinated

down to the last detail with the US, Germany and France.

3:00:32

So they blocked it?

-Basically, yes. They blocked it and I thought they're wrong.

3:00:40

In retrospect,

it's too soon to know. The advantages

and disadvantages:

3:00:47

The downside of the war going on is the casualties

in Ukraine and Russia,

3:00:57

it's a very harsh blow

to Ukraine, the country. There will have to be

a huge restoration of the infrastructures,


paulsurovell said:

Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennet reports that the US, France, Germany and UK blocked a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine, choosing instead to keep "striking Putin," during negotiations that Bennet was mediating.


Below are excerpts from a 4-hour interview at the following link. You can select the entire transcript under "Share" and "English subtitles" under "Setting" if they don't come up from this link. There is an extensive discussion about Bennet's visits to Russia and his talks with Putin.

The article at the "Bennet was mediating" link is from March 25.

This is what the situation was on March 25 -
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-25-22

I don't know what "potential agreement" anyone thought was possible on that date, but since then Ukraine has pushed Russia back and out of substantial areas that Russian forces were in. 

I don't think Bennet is saying that, but for the U.S., there would have been a peace settlement at that time. In fact, given the situation at that time, it would be ridiculous to blame any country other than Russia.


paulsurovell said:

nohero said:

Not only is Code Pink no longer on the list of the "coalition" of the "Raging Hatred of Ukrainians" rally on February 19, but Medea Benjamin is no longer on the speaker list.

But with Scott Ritter, Tulsi Gabbard, and Jimmy Dore, why would she stay away from them?

https://rageagainstwar.com/#Speakers

Please include Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Hedges, Anne Wright, David Swanson and Wyatt Reed, in future references to the speakers list.

Before you go off on Ron Paul, please don't forget to mention that he collaborated with Barney Frank, and many other Democrats in the House on many occasions.

Ron Paul and Barney Frank collaborated on pot: Ron Paul, Barney Frank: Legalize it - POLITICO

It's only tangentially relevant, since all the Ragers Hating on Ukraine must all be high as they dream up why the U.S. is more responsible than Russia for Ukraine being invaded.

I included the link to the speakers list.  Since Medea Benjamin and Code Pink have apparently disassociated themselves from that group, who knows when it may be a final list?

I don't know if you have any insights on why someone you relied on to defend the event, now doesn't want to be part of it.

You left off other names, by the way, but I'm not going to quibble.


paulsurovell said:

nohero said:

Scott Ritter is going to be there with the other Raging Phonies Hating Ukraine, and it promises to be absolutely disgusting. 

Yeah, this is bad tendency of Scott Ritter. And I agree it's hateful. He could and actually should, be kicked off Twitter for this. Too bad, because most of what he says is valid and vital to understand what's going on in the war. Going on Twitter now..

Telling Scott Ritter that he shouldn't talk about genociding all the Ukrainians, just the bad ones, was quite the spanking.


paulsurovell said:

Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennet reports that the US, France, Germany and UK blocked a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine, choosing instead to keep "striking Putin," during negotiations that Bennet was mediating.


Below are excerpts from a 4-hour interview at the following link. You can select the entire transcript under "Share" and "English subtitles" under "Setting" if they don't come up from this link. There is an extensive discussion about Bennet's visits to Russia and his talks with Putin.



Fact check from the Twitter about the video - 

"The video has been edited to omit some context, and the tweet further misrepresents what was said. In the full video Bennett says:

- Further effort to negotiate was stopped
- Decision was legitimate
- He is unsure the deal would have been reached
- Deal had serious risks"

[Edited to remove duplicate text from quoted post]


nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennet reports that the US, France, Germany and UK blocked a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine, choosing instead to keep "striking Putin," during negotiations that Bennet was mediating.


Below are excerpts from a 4-hour interview at the following link. You can select the entire transcript under "Share" and "English subtitles" under "Setting" if they don't come up from this link. There is an extensive discussion about Bennet's visits to Russia and his talks with Putin.



Fact check from the Twitter about the video - 

"The video has been edited to omit some context, and the tweet further misrepresents what was said. In the full video Bennett says:

- Further effort to negotiate was stopped
- Decision was legitimate
- He is unsure the deal would have been reached
- Deal had serious risks"

[Edited to remove duplicate text from quoted post]

I posted the full, unedited video, which confirms what Katchanovski says. The language in the transcript is that the negotiations were "blocked" by the West. Because they wanted to keep "striking Putin". Consistent with the reports about Boris Johnson's trip to Kyiv to stop Ukraine-Russian talks.


nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

nohero said:

Scott Ritter is going to be there with the other Raging Phonies Hating Ukraine, and it promises to be absolutely disgusting. 

Yeah, this is bad tendency of Scott Ritter. And I agree it's hateful. He could and actually should, be kicked off Twitter for this. Too bad, because most of what he says is valid and vital to understand what's going on in the war. Going on Twitter now..

Telling Scott Ritter that he shouldn't talk about genociding all the Ukrainians, just the bad ones, was quite the spanking.

Wrong. Genocide doesn't exclude sections of the population.


paulsurovell said:

I sent you the full, unedited video, which confirms what Katchanovski says. The language in the transcript is that the negotiations were "blocked" by the West. Because they wanted to keep "striking Putin". Consistent with the reports about Boris Johnson's trip to Kyiv to stop Ukraine-Russian talks.

Sheesh, Paul, I rely on Elon’s Twitter fact check and now you tell me to ignore it!


nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

nohero said:

Not only is Code Pink no longer on the list of the "coalition" of the "Raging Hatred of Ukrainians" rally on February 19, but Medea Benjamin is no longer on the speaker list.

But with Scott Ritter, Tulsi Gabbard, and Jimmy Dore, why would she stay away from them?

https://rageagainstwar.com/#Speakers

Please include Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Hedges, Anne Wright, David Swanson and Wyatt Reed, in future references to the speakers list.

Before you go off on Ron Paul, please don't forget to mention that he collaborated with Barney Frank, and many other Democrats in the House on many occasions.

Ron Paul and Barney Frank collaborated on pot: Ron Paul, Barney Frank: Legalize it - POLITICO

It's only tangentially relevant, since all the Ragers Hating on Ukraine must all be high as they dream up why the U.S. is more responsible than Russia for Ukraine being invaded.

I included the link to the speakers list.  Since Medea Benjamin and Code Pink have apparently disassociated themselves from that group, who knows when it may be a final list?

I don't know if you have any insights on why someone you relied on to defend the event, now doesn't want to be part of it.

You left off other names, by the way, but I'm not going to quibble.

Medea Benjamin, like Scott Ritter, is a great American patriot. They both oppose the war in Ukraine and advocate a cease fire. Scott supports a cease-fire but supports Russia's decision to invade and its war objectives. Medea does not. My position is similar to Medea's. Beyond my disagreement with Scott on the invasion and prosecution of the war, Scott committed a reprehensible transgression that reflects badly on him but not on others. I don't know why Code Pink dropped off the list, but I'm sure that won't lessen your hostility to them for their challenge to the pro-war narrative.

On collaboration between Barney Frank (and many other Dems) and Ron Paul, you are simply ignorant. See headline below.

Tell @drummerboy not to read the last line of your post.


nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

I sent you the full, unedited video, which confirms what Katchanovski says. The language in the transcript is that the negotiations were "blocked" by the West. Because they wanted to keep "striking Putin". Consistent with the reports about Boris Johnson's trip to Kyiv to stop Ukraine-Russian talks.

Sheesh, Paul, I rely on Elon’s Twitter fact check and now you tell me to ignore it!

The Twitter fact check doesn't contradict what I said.


nohero said:

paulsurovell said:

Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennet reports that the US, France, Germany and UK blocked a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine, choosing instead to keep "striking Putin," during negotiations that Bennet was mediating.


Below are excerpts from a 4-hour interview at the following link. You can select the entire transcript under "Share" and "English subtitles" under "Setting" if they don't come up from this link. There is an extensive discussion about Bennet's visits to Russia and his talks with Putin.

The article at the "Bennet was mediating" link is from March 25.

This is what the situation was on March 25 -
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-25-22

I don't know what "potential agreement" anyone thought was possible on that date, but since then Ukraine has pushed Russia back and out of substantial areas that Russian forces were in. 

I don't think Bennet is saying that, but for the U.S., there would have been a peace settlement at that time. In fact, given the situation at that time, it would be ridiculous to blame any country other than Russia.

Are you saying that Bennet did NOT say that the West blocked his mediation efforts?


paulsurovell said:

The Twitter fact check doesn't contradict what I said.

It gives more details, which make it more accurate. 


paulsurovell said:

Medea Benjamin, like Scott Ritter, is a great American patriot. They both oppose the war in Ukraine and advocate a cease fire. Scott supports a cease-fire but supports Russia's decision to invade and its war objectives. Medea does not. My position is similar to Medea's. Beyond my disagreement with Scott on the invasion and prosecution of the war, Scott committed a reprehensible transgression that reflects badly on him but not on others. I don't know why Code Pink dropped off the list, but I'm sure that won't lessen your hostility to them for their challenge to the pro-war narrative.

On collaboration between Barney Frank (and many other Dems) and Ron Paul, you are simply ignorant. See headline below.

Tell @drummerboy not to read the last line of your post.

I would think you would have more curiosity about why Medea and her organization are disassociating.

And it’s not “simply ignorant” to miss your vague allusion to a headline that you didn’t bother to provide when you first made a comment based on it. 


https://twitter.com/realscottritter/status/1622564327973613569?s=46&t=MAwjLFVX50j13J6BfZjV2g

This is the real Real Scott Ritter, not the fake one, pushing Putin’s line and disagreeing with King’s plea. 




paulsurovell said:

Are you saying that Bennet did NOT say that the West blocked his mediation efforts?

It's always interesting and worthwhile to hear from people directly involved in events, so I appreciate the link to Bennett's interview (esp since it had transcripts -- read those, didn't watch). But no, I don't think Bennett was giving a definitive claim there, but conveying his impression.

For instance, earlier on, he says "The Bucha massacre -once that happened I said, it's over."

And speaking how how hopeful he was about the negotiations, his interviewer asks "What odds did you give it," and he replies "50%." So far from a certain thing, even if he was very optimistic here. Later on, he notes "I have one claim, I claim there was a good chance of reaching a ceasefire." Again -- a chance, not a certainty.

So yes, Bennett comes across as thinking there was a real chance at reaching a ceasefire, but it's also clear that these are his impressions -- he's not making the kind of definitive claim you say he is. And we, as outside observers, who have been able to read not just Bennett's account, but the accounts of others involved in Ukraine as well, and who have been able to observe Russia's actions, can form our own conclusions as to whether we think Bennett's impressions were accurate.

To me, they come across as extremely optimistic, for reasons I've laid out repeatedly on this thread -- first and foremost that time and again, it's Putin who's been the one to initiate and escalate violence, and time and again he's taken any lull's in violence as an opportunity to prepare for a renewed round of aggression and not as a means of reaching any lasting agreement. So in that context, I can't say that I agree with Bennett's optimistic view.


To add a bit more to the above -- do I think Bennett was right to try? Yes, of course. While I think he was overly optimistic about the odds, I certainly think the effort was well worth it. But where I get the sense that Paul believes the choice is between negotiations and backing Ukraine, I think both have to happen. It's certainly possible that Putin realizes things are going badly and would take an unexpected chance at reaching a true ceasefire. Unlikely -- highly unlikely -- but possible. And so of course any real chance at ending the slaughter should be seized.

But weighed against that slim chance is the present reality that Russia is engaged in a brutal war of imperial aggression. To say that Ukraine should unilaterally stop fighting (which is Paul's position -- unless he has some concessions he believes Putin has offered? No? Because a position where one side makes concession and the other doesn't is the definition of unilateral) is obviously an impossible and irresponsible demand (assuming one isn't actually advocating for the Belarusification of Ukraine, in which case urging Ukraine to surrender makes sense, but also would mean one needs to trade the "anti-anti-" Putin prefix for the straightforward "pro-").

By all means lets all hope for some unexpected diplomatic breakthrough -- but make sure Ukraine is getting as much aid as possible in defending itself in the meantime.


It's starting to look like the carefully calibrated aid to Ukraine is not so well calibrated after all.  We should have started delivery of tanks and IFVs six months ago.


PVW said:

paulsurovell said:

Are you saying that Bennet did NOT say that the West blocked his mediation efforts?

It's always interesting and worthwhile to hear from people directly involved in events, so I appreciate the link to Bennett's interview (esp since it had transcripts -- read those, didn't watch). But no, I don't think Bennett was giving a definitive claim there, but conveying his impression.

For instance, earlier on, he says "The Bucha massacre -once that happened I said, it's over."

Thanks for reading more of the transcript.  That's an important detail.


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