Warning Ends, Snow Showers now, and again on Wednesday

much relieved by that pronouncement, Max!

Newest estimate for our area is "only" 6-8". Crazy the big difference from the 4:00AM estimates to the 7:50AM estimated

That's fine. 6 inches is pretty. More than that is irritating.

That is actually 8 - 12" We are west of Newark on the map (by Newark NWS means the airport) in the darker yellow band. And the QPF forecast is unchanged, still 1.5" - 2". Same amount of water, denser snow.

Max, since people have stopped asking for your train/airport predictions, I figured I'd ask: Will my crocuses, which had just started flowering this week, survive?

drummerboy said:

there hasn't been one worth talking about in the last two years.

But Jasmo's right.

ridski said:

Jasmo said:

Nobody seems to object to calling the "Blizzard of '88" by that name. If people refer to an event by an abbreviated name, that subjectively is meaningful to most, even though perhaps scientifically inaccurate, I have no objections. Everyone knows that the next 24+ hours is going to be a huge and disruptive snow event around here, and if the nickname for it is Stella, it's simply easier to refer to and remember. It's simply a label for a happening, rather than a scientific explanation. I think it is a positive development and hope it continues.

Name one winter storm from the last two years.

Not even the blizzard that dropped 29 inches on us in January 2016?

ridski said:

drummerboy said:

there hasn't been one worth talking about in the last two years.

But Jasmo's right.

ridski said:

Jasmo said:

Nobody seems to object to calling the "Blizzard of '88" by that name. If people refer to an event by an abbreviated name, that subjectively is meaningful to most, even though perhaps scientifically inaccurate, I have no objections. Everyone knows that the next 24+ hours is going to be a huge and disruptive snow event around here, and if the nickname for it is Stella, it's simply easier to refer to and remember. It's simply a label for a happening, rather than a scientific explanation. I think it is a positive development and hope it continues.

Name one winter storm from the last two years.

Not even the blizzard that dropped 29 inches on us in January 2016?

Huge bust. Sad.

max_weisenfeld said:

That is actually 8 - 12" We are west of Newark on the map (by Newark NWS means the airport) in the darker yellow band. And the QPF forecast is unchanged, still 1.5" - 2". Same amount of water, denser snow.

That's what happens when I try to do your job.

Current condition Cumberland Road, South Orange

Large flakes, many leaf-sized, are coming down now.

the larger the flakes the lower the acccumulation

Rain snow sleet mix now, switching among the three. Plays havoc with accumulation amounts, and is not going to be at all fun to clear.

Oh, right. The 7:30 measurement, 3 1/4 inches of snow, melted to 0.51" of QPF (water).

That's a yield of 6.4:1. A more normal yield of 10:1 would have been 5", or 12:1 = 6"

Given that we have a good covering, more than enough snow for sledding and snow man making, can someone explain to me why people are bemoaning the loss of a back breaking additional 10 inches? Do all of these folks have a snow shoveling service on call?

Me, with my old shovel and bad back, I see nothing but up side in a lower total.

2 year old granddaughter is heartbroken - they live in Brielle and they're just getting rain. Big brothers are just happy that there isn't school since that was called last night. I'm just hoping this ice goes away so South Orange Lord will be able to use the snowblower.

GoSlugs said:

Given that we have a good covering, more than enough snow for sledding and snow man making, can someone explain to me why people are bemoaning the loss of a back breaking additional 10 inches? Do all of these folks have a snow shoveling service on call?

Me, with my old shovel and bad back, I see nothing but up side in a lower total.

A foot of powder is less back breaking than four inches of heavy wet stuff with an ice layer.

We are still on track for 11-17" up here in Motown. I'll take that over the 20-24" that Mt Holly hinted at yesterday. And if it stays all snow I am down with that. Wet slush shoveling is the worst.

Right now it is coming down in microbursts that are very heavy followed by lulls when it is still falling but at a more moderate rate. Wind gusts make it parallel at times.

ridski said:

drummerboy said:

there hasn't been one worth talking about in the last two years.

But Jasmo's right.

ridski said:

Jasmo said:

Nobody seems to object to calling the "Blizzard of '88" by that name. If people refer to an event by an abbreviated name, that subjectively is meaningful to most, even though perhaps scientifically inaccurate, I have no objections. Everyone knows that the next 24+ hours is going to be a huge and disruptive snow event around here, and if the nickname for it is Stella, it's simply easier to refer to and remember. It's simply a label for a happening, rather than a scientific explanation. I think it is a positive development and hope it continues.

Name one winter storm from the last two years.

Not even the blizzard that dropped 29 inches on us in January 2016?

I know the face, but I can't place the name.

Love the pic with the bench, Tom!

Tom_Vilardi said:

Current condition Cumberland Road, South Orange

DaveSchmidt said:

ridski said:

drummerboy said:

there hasn't been one worth talking about in the last two years.

But Jasmo's right.

ridski said:

Jasmo said:

Nobody seems to object to calling the "Blizzard of '88" by that name. If people refer to an event by an abbreviated name, that subjectively is meaningful to most, even though perhaps scientifically inaccurate, I have no objections. Everyone knows that the next 24+ hours is going to be a huge and disruptive snow event around here, and if the nickname for it is Stella, it's simply easier to refer to and remember. It's simply a label for a happening, rather than a scientific explanation. I think it is a positive development and hope it continues.

Name one winter storm from the last two years.

Not even the blizzard that dropped 29 inches on us in January 2016?

I know the face, but I can't place the name.

Jonas? Snowie? Sowpocalypse? Make Winter Great Again?

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/01/whats-the-name-of-the-2016-blizzard/426696/

GoSlugs said:
Me, with my old shovel and bad back, I see nothing but up side in a lower total.

max_weisenfeld said:

...our totals are ranged from 12 - 24" now (we are right on the line between two zones on the map). But QPF (that's weatherspeak for "water that falls from the sky") is still in the 1.5 - 2" range.
...
and
---
...the QPF forecast is unchanged, still 1.5" - 2". Same amount of water, denser snow.

I'm no physicist, but I think the 2" of water weighs the same when you shovel your sidewalks, whether it is a light and fluffy 24" high, or a dense and grouply 16" with an ice sheet on top.

The latter would feel heavier if you take the same visual amount (cubic area) of snow on your shovel per scoop, while the fluffy stuff gives you a larger margin of error of how large an amounts of snow can go on your shovel before you throw out your back.

That said, snow that is easy-off from the sidewalks vs. iced onto the sidewalks (or iced on top) can make a shovel-effort difference; and the fluffy vs. cloggy snow can make a snowblower-effort difference.

Personally, I think this just sucks. It is just as heavy as it would have been as snow, more dangerous to powerlines, ices the steps, and is not pretty to look at. I see no upside.

That's my point!! Who remembers a storm that way? There's no way to conveniently slot it into your memory.

If it was called Fred, we'd all have remembered it!

ridski said:

drummerboy said:

there hasn't been one worth talking about in the last two years.

But Jasmo's right.

ridski said:

Jasmo said:

Nobody seems to object to calling the "Blizzard of '88" by that name. If people refer to an event by an abbreviated name, that subjectively is meaningful to most, even though perhaps scientifically inaccurate, I have no objections. Everyone knows that the next 24+ hours is going to be a huge and disruptive snow event around here, and if the nickname for it is Stella, it's simply easier to refer to and remember. It's simply a label for a happening, rather than a scientific explanation. I think it is a positive development and hope it continues.

Name one winter storm from the last two years.

Not even the blizzard that dropped 29 inches on us in January 2016?

Here in Andover township in Sussex Co, we have about 12" thus far, no rain in sight. Just finished the first snowblower run.

My name for that 2016 storm is "the Saturday snowstorm that was so huge that school was closed on Monday and we could barely make it to the Apollo Theater on Tuesday." Which I think is as relevant to most people as the name given by the Weather Channel ;-)

The storm continues to track faster and farther inland than expected. The only model that showed this track was the NAM. The others all had a consensus on a more offshore track. As a result of the speed in particular and the westerly shift of track in general more warm air is mixing in aloft, which is what is causing the ice and sleet. Because the band we are in is narrow, and the models have been wrong, I have little confidence in predicting precipitation mix for us for the next few hours. Right now, we are stuck between the rain and snow. What ought to happen is snow mixed with a bit of sleet, changing to all snow this afternoon. But given that, right now, what ought to be happening and what is actually happening diverge, I am going to go get a good book, make a fire in the fireplace, and just deal with this when it is over.

drummerboy said:

That's my point!! Who remembers a storm that way? There's no way to conveniently slot it into your memory.

If it was called Fred, we'd all have remembered it!

Drat. The one storm the Weather Channel didn't give a name since 2015, and it was the 29-incher.

It was given a name, DB, just like this one. The point is that even though it was, nobody remembers "Winter Storm Jonas."

EBennett's mnemonic is much more effective.

Max! When is this over? The sleet is pounding my windows and the noise is deafening

Lightening and thundersleet reported in the city. Multiple reports.

Re storm names/descriptors, we could call this one the 'Pi Day Blizzard'. However, with what the precipitation is doing, we may have much less polite terms for it before it is all over.