Tropical Storm Warning ENDED for the Jersey Shore and Eastern Essex County: Tropical Storm Hermine

I know it's not good but don't cha just love the phrase "cone of uncertainty "

I'll be watching for your morning report, Max.

We're supposed to go to Tom's River for a relative's birthday in the afternoon/evening, and I hate driving in bad weather, and/or flooded roads.

This article is fascinating (and scary) for what it says about both this storm and the future...wondering what our weather hobbyists think. Reading it, I'd be getting far away from the shore.

We Haven’t Seen Many Storms Like Hermine | FiveThirtyEight

This morning, the guidance has come into good agreement on the next 24 - 36 hours.

Hermine should move very slowly northeast today, staying well offshore. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the shore and coastal areas. Tides and surge-prone areas will be effected.

For SOMA, today should have increasing cloudiness with a chance of showers late and breezy, but unlikely to see anything approaching storm conditions today.

Tomorrow through Wednesday, there is still quite some divergence in the models. All guidence agrees with there being a prolonged period of Hermine stalled off shore, wandering about and likely to grow in strength, possibly even back to hurricane levels. At this time, the Euro has Hermine moving off the fastest, staying out to sea. The UKMet shows a swing to the west, inland. The NOAA model, the GFS, shows a middle track and that is what the NWS has represented in the graphic (below).

Overall, chances of a significant effect inland have decreased with this forecast. Concerns about storm surge and tides at the shore remain intact. Chances of significant rain and wind have decreased but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast beyond 36 hours.

susan1014 said:

This article is fascinating (and scary) for what it says about both this storm and the future...wondering what our weather hobbyists think. Reading it, I'd be getting far away from the shore.

We Haven’t Seen Many Storms Like Hermine | FiveThirtyEight

He is right that this is an unusual storm, and a type we are likely to (1) see more often in the future, and (2) has catastrophic potential. It should not be news to anyone at this point that warmer oceans and higher sea levels are going to (not maybe, but are going to) have significant negative consequences.

Regarding this storm, he is right in that the models are having some difficulty coming into agreement. However, the ensemble track the NHC has been using has worked well so far, and while each individual element has vacilated, they have done so around a core track that is developing as forecast.

Tomorrow afternoon is when the rubber hits the road. If the storm and the high interact as forecast (and there is historical data, just not the single perfect example the mets would like), then Hermine will stay off shore, and the primary wind and rain with it. But there is enough potential energy in the interaction to grow the storm back to hurricane strength, and the storm will be close enough to shore, that a bad wobble over the next four days could mean heavy rain and winds on shore and even inland a ways.

It is not likely, but the consequences are significant enough that prudence demands they discuss it.

I also do not see the indecision he does in reporting responsibilities. The NHC and NWS have been very clear for two days now that the NHC will track and report the storm for its duration, unlike Sandy. Further, they already did this with Gaston, even though it was never, not for one instant, a threat to land (except Bermuda and, much later, the Azores).

He loses me near the end where he trots out a model, the North American Mesoscale (NAM), that is very short-range and volatile, and tweets it as showing the storm swinging onshore three days away. That's a weather weenie stunt, a pro met should know better.

max_weisenfeld said:

susan1014 said:

This article is fascinating (and scary) for what it says about both this storm and the future...wondering what our weather hobbyists think. Reading it, I'd be getting far away from the shore.

We Haven’t Seen Many Storms Like Hermine | FiveThirtyEight

He is right that this is an unusual storm, and a type we are likely to (1) see more often in the future, and (2) has catastrophic potential. It should not be news to anyone at this point that warmer oceans and higher sea levels are going to (not maybe, but are going to) have significant negative consequences.

Regarding this storm, he is right in that the models are having some difficulty coming into agreement. However, the ensemble track the NHC has been using has worked well so far, and while each individual element has vacilated, they have done so around a core track that is developing as forecast.

For decades, as the global warming created by human emissions caused land ice to melt and ocean water to expand, scientists warned that the accelerating rise of the sea would eventually imperil the United States’ coastline.
Now, those warnings are no longer theoretical: The inundation of the coast
has begun. The sea has crept up to the point that a high tide and a
brisk wind are all it takes to send water pouring into streets and
homes.

Federal scientists have documented a sharp jump in this nuisance flooding — often called “sunny-day
flooding” — along both the East Coast and the Gulf Coast in recent
years. The sea is now so near the brim in many places that they believe
the problem is likely to worsen quickly. Shifts in the Pacific Ocean
mean that the West Coast, partly spared over the past two decades, may
be hit hard, too.

These tidal floods are often just a foot or two deep, but they can stop
traffic, swamp basements, damage cars, kill lawns and forests, and
poison wells with salt. Moreover, the high seas interfere with the
drainage of storm water.

In coastal regions, that compounds the damage from the increasingly heavy rains plaguing the country, like those that recently caused extensive flooding in Louisiana. Scientists say these rains are also a consequence of human greenhouse emissions.

But the local leaders say they cannot tackle this problem alone. They are
pleading with state and federal governments for guidance and help,
including billions to pay for flood walls, pumps and road improvements
that would buy them time.

Yet Congress has largely ignored these pleas, and has even tried to block
plans by the military to head off future problems at the numerous bases
imperiled by a rising sea. A Republican congressman from Colorado, Ken
Buck, recently called one military proposal part of a “radical climate
change agenda.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/science/flooding-of-coast-caused-by-global-warming-has-already-begun.html

I wouldn't be surprised that in the future the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be accused of being part of the "radical climate agenda" followed with attempts to cut their funding.

Sad and very stupid.

So if your daughter was in margate for the weekend and called and said that it's sunny down there and she want s to stay till tomorrow, do you say yes, but come home early or come home today (Sunday)?

Tell her to stay, but heed all beach patrol warnings.

My wife is booked on a flight leaving Memphis, TN tomorrow morning, arriving at Newark at 12:30. Does it seem likely that this flight will be cancelled, given latest developments?

(Thanks for all this information!)

Jonathan.

jspjnc said:

My wife is booked on a flight leaving Memphis, TN tomorrow morning, arriving at Newark at 12:30. Does it seem likely that this flight will be cancelled, given latest developments?

(Thanks for all this information!)

Jonathan.

Which airline?

United 4411

I am not smart enough to forecast the actions of airlines

Fair enough!

judy3x said:

So if your daughter was in margate for the weekend and called and said that it's sunny down there and she want s to stay till tomorrow, do you say yes, but come home early or come home today (Sunday)?

Thanks max...DD will be happy!

ridski said:

jspjnc said:

My wife is booked on a flight leaving Memphis, TN tomorrow morning, arriving at Newark at 12:30. Does it seem likely that this flight will be cancelled, given latest developments?

(Thanks for all this information!)

Jonathan.

Which airline?

@jspjnc According to United, it's too early to know what Hermine's effects on domestic air travel will be for tomorrow morning. They said to keep an eye on this page for updates.

https://www.united.com/CMS/en-US/travel/news/Pages/travelnotices.aspx

Why thanks!

With this afternoon's update, the track continues to drift eastward and more out to sea. If this track/trend holds, we will have dodged the bullet.

That said, Hermine will be back to full hurricane strength by sometime tomorrow, something that is essentially unprecedented in the known history of modern weather forecasting. We are very lucky this did not track close to shore. Also, you might want to compare the track on this graphic from the one from Thursday afternoon. The storm center plots for Tuesday morning are within 50 miles of each other. Not bad forecasting for a storm that is unlike any in the database. Go NHC!

The storm is expected to track back towards land tomorrow and Tuesday, so expect the TV forecasters to start freaking out again (I hear the charlatan on PIX11 has already gone there). Nothing in the guidence indicates the storm making landfall, but tides and storm surges will keep beaches closed through midweek, and damage from flooding and erosion could still be substantial.

The 5 o'clock seems to remove the h from the future points.

Just returned from a day spent in Sussex County Just the type of day you remember.

Anyway, all the traffic advisory signs on Rt. 80 are loudly proclaiming" horrendous weather coming this way, be prepared"

Hoping they are wrong

This evening's guidence continues to track furter east.

ska said:

The 5 o'clock seems to remove the h from the future points.

Yes, as the center of the storm is now projected to spend more time in the colder waters beyond the gulf stream, and also the storm struggled to incorporate energy from this high pressure system that made today's weather so lovely.

If current trends continue, by tomorrow we should see warnings along the coast downgraded to watches, or perhaps even cancelled.

I am glad that we missed a destructive hurricane, but I am sorry we won't be getting a good day's worth of soaking rain. We need it so badly.

cody said:

I am glad that we missed a destructive hurricane, but I am sorry we won't be getting a good day's worth of soaking rain. We need it so badly.

Amen! Dry as Melba toast...

Storm warnings along the Jersey Shore, the city, and western Long Island have been lifted.

Hermine will be offshore now through Tuesday. High surf and tides will continue. Inland, little effect expected.

Have a great Labor Day!

Thanks, Max!

Thanks Max !! I always come here to read your weather reports and do not look at others ! Much appreciated!

down the shore, it looks as though we might get rain. In the forecast?

Check here:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.6429&lon=-74.1804#.V820qu8pCf0

I wonder how much business the jersey shore lost this weekend because of the storm that never came. Such a shame. It really was a nice weekend.

conandrob240 said:

I wonder how much business the jersey shore lost this weekend because of the storm that never came. Such a shame. It really was a nice weekend.

Perhaps our government would do well to spend more money on climate research.