Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine

PVW said:

nan said:

The US is the big driver behind all of this and our government does not give a crap if Europe freezes.  Neither, evidently, do their politicians. 

I remember you saying that it might be a good thing since it would decrease their dependence on fossil fuel. Recently you said it was good if they got away from Russian oil.  You don't seem to be too worried. 

Yeah, your cartoon and your interpretation still make no sense. The US doesn't care and yet is sending gas?

As for your second point, I do think cheap and easy access to Russian fossil fuels has made it easier for Europe to slow their transition to a post-carbon economy. This isn't the way anyone would choose to break that dependence, but given that it's happening, yes I do think ending reliance on Russian gas is a silver lining. Similarly on the geo-strategic level, Europe is finding itself economically vulnerable to Russia and, while again this is not the way anyone would want to fix that, Europe will be far more economically,y resilient if it can get through this challenge.

Russia, on the other hand, is going to be facing mounting challenges going forward. They're losing a major market, the infrastructure to sell their gas to other countries isn't as developed, sanctions will make it hard for them to build up that infrastructure, and as the world accelerates its transition to a post-carbon economy Russia's going to see its economic base erode and have a hard time diversifying. This winter might be difficult for Europe; OTOH, maybe it won't be as bad as feared. Europe's not going into this unprepared after all, and has already made a lot of progress finding ways to offset the loss of Russian gas. And after that, Russia's lost most of its leverage over Europe.

Destroying Europe has a silver lining?  I doubt you would be so sanguine if that was what we were facing here. 

Here is a thought:  what if instead of believing in NATOs cartoon Putin we actually tried to get along with Russia?  There would not have been an invasion.  The cheap Russian gas would still flow until we had an alternative energy source.  Europe would still be a fun place to visit and would not get wiped out.  You do understand that Europe with no energy means no economy, right?  This is not the 1964 blackout (which I remember--hope I got the year right).  It's projected to last five to ten years.  

What progress have they made to offset Russian gas?  I don't see a real plan. I see that woman in Germany saying she does not care that she was elected by Germans--she only cares about Ukraine.  Scary. 

Russia is doing fine. They are making new friends everyday.  Some of them used to be our friends.  We are just a small part of the world and our empire is sinking. 



nan said:

PVW said:

nan said:

The US is the big driver behind all of this and our government does not give a crap if Europe freezes.  Neither, evidently, do their politicians. 

I remember you saying that it might be a good thing since it would decrease their dependence on fossil fuel. Recently you said it was good if they got away from Russian oil.  You don't seem to be too worried. 

Yeah, your cartoon and your interpretation still make no sense. The US doesn't care and yet is sending gas?

As for your second point, I do think cheap and easy access to Russian fossil fuels has made it easier for Europe to slow their transition to a post-carbon economy. This isn't the way anyone would choose to break that dependence, but given that it's happening, yes I do think ending reliance on Russian gas is a silver lining. Similarly on the geo-strategic level, Europe is finding itself economically vulnerable to Russia and, while again this is not the way anyone would want to fix that, Europe will be far more economically,y resilient if it can get through this challenge.

Russia, on the other hand, is going to be facing mounting challenges going forward. They're losing a major market, the infrastructure to sell their gas to other countries isn't as developed, sanctions will make it hard for them to build up that infrastructure, and as the world accelerates its transition to a post-carbon economy Russia's going to see its economic base erode and have a hard time diversifying. This winter might be difficult for Europe; OTOH, maybe it won't be as bad as feared. Europe's not going into this unprepared after all, and has already made a lot of progress finding ways to offset the loss of Russian gas. And after that, Russia's lost most of its leverage over Europe.

Destroying Europe has a silver lining?  I doubt you would be so sanguine if that was what we were facing here. 

Here is a thought:  what if instead of believing in NATOs cartoon Putin we actually tried to get along with Russia?  There would not have been an invasion.  The cheap Russian gas would still flow until we had an alternative energy source.  Europe would still be a fun place to visit and would not get wiped out.  You do understand that Europe with no energy means no economy, right?  This is not the 1964 blackout (which I remember--hope I got the year right).  It's projected to last five to ten years.  

What progress have they made to offset Russian gas?  I don't see a real plan. I see that woman in Germany saying she does not care that she was elected by Germans--she only cares about Ukraine.  Scary. 

Russia is doing fine. They are making new friends everyday.  Some of them used to be our friends.  We are just a small part of the world and our empire is sinking. 

Russia is making new friends every day?   Does that include the ones flying out windows?


sbenois said:

Russia is making new friends every day?   Does that include the ones flying out windows?

That was pretty good, I have to admit. 


This unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is somewhat similar to the invasion of Afghanistan by the Russians. Russia seems to be a nation that suffers from paranoia and an obsession with controlling what their neighbors do, and who they’re talking to. First Russia signed a friendship treaty with Afghanistan, to “help” them become more leftist, and became upset when the Afghan president started talking to Pakistan and other countries that weren’t communist. Sounds familiar? He was overthrown by members of his own communist party, so Russia decided to “help” these communists who couldn’t seem to get this communism authoritarian thingy right…

Within days Russia had taken Kabul…and installed a “real” leader more in line with their Schizophrenic behaviors.  This same mental illness is what gave birth to the Afghan resistance and created what eventually became the most dangerous terrorist organizations. 
After ten years and thousands of soldiers dead, the Russians crossed the border back into their dysfunctional society, which eventually collapsed under the weight of their own failures. Gorbachev was probably the only Russian leader who was not afflicted with this malady…the man who could save Russia from its demons. Notice Putin didn’t even find the time to pay his respects to the man even in death.
Just like Brezhnev (who ironically was Ukrainian), Putin is heading down the same path of destruction, he couldn’t take Kyiv in a few days like Brezhnev did in Kabul, and he sure as hell will eventually lose more soldiers as the Ukrainian resistance will fight them for years, just like the Mujahideen did… and this too could be the other collapse of the Russian empire. 

Mental illness is real 


nan said:

Destroying Europe has a silver lining?  I doubt you would be so sanguine if that was what we were facing here. 

Here is a thought:  what if instead of believing in NATOs cartoon Putin we actually tried to get along with Russia?  There would not have been an invasion.  The cheap Russian gas would still flow until we had an alternative energy source.  Europe would still be a fun place to visit and would not get wiped out.  You do understand that Europe with no energy means no economy, right?  This is not the 1964 blackout (which I remember--hope I got the year right).  It's projected to last five to ten years.  

What progress have they made to offset Russian gas?  I don't see a real plan. I see that woman in Germany saying she does not care that she was elected by Germans--she only cares about Ukraine.  Scary. 

Russia is doing fine. They are making new friends everyday.  Some of them used to be our friends.  We are just a small part of the world and our empire is sinking. 

If the sources you are reading are telling you that Europe has no energy, and won't for 5 -10 years, then you need better sources.


Within 2 years or less, Europe will be free of any dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Russia will be selling fuels at discounted prices to China and India. Who knows. Maybe Putin always wanted to be China’s bitch. Meanwhile I think their will soon be a massive push to decarbonize the world as Mother Nature makes clear the consequences of global warming. Thanks to Putin, Russia will be left in the dust hawking fossil fuels in a shrinking market. 


nan said:

nohero said:

A couple of things -

First, the guy at the podium did not say any of those things about the Russians saving the group from the Ukrainians, that was in the question. The guy at the podium gave a very diplomatic response about governments doing whatever they have to, in order to protect the inspectors.

Second, this is actually the guy in charge of the team of inspectors, and this was his message - 

He also retweeted this -

As the inspectors were arriving there was a Ukrainian military unit who tried to raid the power plant and take control.  That is what the question is about.  He refers to them as "sabotours."  The Western media is not saying much about this since it was a failed raid and they were wiped out.  The guy speaking --  a UN official does say what it says in the quotes: 

"I'm glad the Russian military did what they had to do to keep our inspectors safe,"

He speaks in English--there is no translation issues. The question was about the specific attack but he responds in general--typical for a spokesperson.  But, he is saying something  positive about the Russians.  You will have to live with that. 

Please read what I wrote, because that's what I said - he was diplomatic in response to the question that included the Russian claims. I didn't say that his statement wasn't "positive about the Russians", and I showed that the actual leader of the team was being diplomatic about both sides.

Since that was days ago, there are now more news stories and statements, and you should read them.


nan said:

PVW said:

nan said:

I did not think it was about that at all.  Are you sure that's the cartoon I posted?  The cartoon I posted was just snarky sarcasm. 

The cartoon has the European saying "I don't mind freezing to death this winter if it helps Ukraine," and the American saying "Funnily enough, I don't mind you freezing to death either."

That makes no sense if the American is actually sending gas to try and stop the European from freezing to death. If the American really didn't mind, why would she be trying to prevent the European from freezing?

The US is the big driver behind all of this and our government does not give a crap if Europe freezes.  Neither, evidently, do their politicians. 

I remember you saying that it might be a good thing since it would decrease their dependence on fossil fuel. Recently you said it was good if they got away from Russian oil.  You don't seem to be too worried. 

I have never seen a sign of an impending societal collapse more foreboding than unheated swimming pools.

Europe is surely doomed. Russia has won.


nan said:

drummerboy said:

What's your source that Ukraine was shelling the plant while the inspectors were there?

The Duran covered it multiple times.  There appears to be a Western media blackout. Also not much media on the failed Kherson offensive.   I'm sure you will say this one was made up but we will see eventually.  It sounds too wacky to be true, but truth is often stranger than fiction. 

In this video it is reported while it was happening yesterday.  @7:49

This one was done this morning.  He tries to google it in the media.  Also has some more updates on the reasons behind it.  

@5:05

The Duran guy is in a park somewhere, holding a selfie-stick and reading from a Russian Military press release. So the "source" is a Russian Military press release.

"He tries to google it in the media" and reports on his success.  This is like watching someone play video games on Twitch. Maybe he's bad at using the Google, or maybe all of those reporters whom the Russians claim they gave full access to, didn't come up with anything to report about that.


nan said:

sbenois said:

Well thank God you care!

If only you cared about the millions of Ukrainians who have been displaced, maimed or murdered by your friend Putin.

You're disgusting.

Last time I checked I was not Boris Johnson.  That's who you should be mad at.  And all your like-minded friends who supported a war over diplomacy and who wanted to fight to the last Ukrainian. 

Everyone was at the negotiating table, then Vlad stood up, walked out, and ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, coming in from Russia and Belarus.

Enough with the attempted gaslighting that anyone other than the Russians "supported a war over diplomacy".


nohero said:

The Duran guy is in a park somewhere, holding a selfie-stick and reading from a Russian Military press release. So the "source" is a Russian Military press release.

"He tries to google it in the media" and reports on his success.  This is like watching someone play video games on Twitch. Maybe he's bad at using the Google, or maybe all of those reporters whom the Russians claim they gave full access to, didn't come up with anything to report about that.

The Russian Ministry of Defense was cited as the source in nan's original post on this subject too, by that guy sitting in a chair with the black shirt.

So in nan's calculation, she believes Russia, while at the same time believing that the entirety of western media has decided to cover up this story.

nan just has no clue when she's being propagandized.


nan said:

What progress have they made to offset Russian gas?  I don't see a real plan. I see that woman in Germany saying she does not care that she was elected by Germans--she only cares about Ukraine.  Scary. 

Russia is doing fine. They are making new friends everyday.  Some of them used to be our friends.  We are just a small part of the world and our empire is sinking. 

It's idiotic to base any conclusions on "Janice Kortcamp's" description. You probably didn't even listen to the abbreviated clip, where her actual point still manages to be heard.

Let's not rely on an Assad-supporting propagandist who writes things like, "Sure, Trump was bad but Biden's worse". 


nohero said:

nan said:

What progress have they made to offset Russian gas?  I don't see a real plan. I see that woman in Germany saying she does not care that she was elected by Germans--she only cares about Ukraine.  Scary. 

Russia is doing fine. They are making new friends everyday.  Some of them used to be our friends.  We are just a small part of the world and our empire is sinking. 

It's idiotic to base any conclusions on "Janice Kortcamp's" description. You probably didn't even listen to the abbreviated clip, where her actual point still manages to be heard.

Let's not rely on an Assad-supporting propagandist who writes things like, "Sure, Trump was bad but Biden's worse". 

You have to admit though that in that clip Trump was mostly spot on.


From everything I read about Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in his visit to Ukraine has been diplomatic. He never said who was shelling the plant. 
It appears Ukrainian military tried to retake the plant with a commando unit and the Russians were firing on them from helicopters. Grossi never said the Russians saved them from Ukrainian attack.  


The anti-Ukraine people really have to agree on a theme and stay with it.
They're just throwing mud against the wall and seeing what sticks.


tjohn said:

Within 2 years or less, Europe will be free of any dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Russia will be selling fuels at discounted prices to China and India. Who knows. Maybe Putin always wanted to be China’s bitch. Meanwhile I think their will soon be a massive push to decarbonize the world as Mother Nature makes clear the consequences of global warming. Thanks to Putin, Russia will be left in the dust hawking fossil fuels in a shrinking market. 

The thing about economic links is that they go both directions. Europe finds itself vulnerable to a cut off of Russian gas and oil, but Russia is vulnerable to losing a valuable market. It's been interesting watching Europe threaten to cut off all use of Russian fossil fuels, and Russia in turn threatening to essentially sanction itself and cut off all exports of fossil fuels. Neither side can actually follow through on a full cut-off.

In this standoff, I'd certainly rather be the more economically diverse and resilient EU, with multiple options for adapting its economy, than the Russian petro-state who has little choice but to try to extract as high a price as it can now knowing it's leverage and options will only shrink going forward. Europe faces pain now as its forced to adapt much sooner and quicker than it planned for, but it can and will adapt. Russia faces pain now, and more pain later, because it's busy burning all its possible bridges to the future.


PVW said:

nan said:

Destroying Europe has a silver lining?  I doubt you would be so sanguine if that was what we were facing here. 

Here is a thought:  what if instead of believing in NATOs cartoon Putin we actually tried to get along with Russia?  There would not have been an invasion.  The cheap Russian gas would still flow until we had an alternative energy source.  Europe would still be a fun place to visit and would not get wiped out.  You do understand that Europe with no energy means no economy, right?  This is not the 1964 blackout (which I remember--hope I got the year right).  It's projected to last five to ten years.  

What progress have they made to offset Russian gas?  I don't see a real plan. I see that woman in Germany saying she does not care that she was elected by Germans--she only cares about Ukraine.  Scary. 

Russia is doing fine. They are making new friends everyday.  Some of them used to be our friends.  We are just a small part of the world and our empire is sinking. 

If the sources you are reading are telling you that Europe has no energy, and won't for 5 -10 years, then you need better sources.

My source was the Belgian Prime Minister.  What's a more appropriate source?  tjohn? 

So, I guess this is like calling the IRS.  If you don't get the answer you want, you just keep calling until the person tells you more of what you want to hear?

Europe is in for 5 to 10 'difficult' winters as energy prices soar, Belgian prime minister says

https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-difficult-winters-ahead-belgian-pm-2022-8 


nohero said:

The anti-Ukraine people really have to agree on a theme and stay with it.
They're just throwing mud against the wall and seeing what sticks.









mud?… it smells like the stables at Belmont racetrack…






"Difficult" is pretty far from "destroyed, " "wiped out," or "no energy." So maybe you don't need different sources, so much paying more attention to what sources are actually saying?

And PM or no, it's ridiculous to make economic predictions for 10 years. Even five years is hardly reliable. 


drummerboy said:

nan said:

PVW said:

nan said:

I did not think it was about that at all.  Are you sure that's the cartoon I posted?  The cartoon I posted was just snarky sarcasm. 

The cartoon has the European saying "I don't mind freezing to death this winter if it helps Ukraine," and the American saying "Funnily enough, I don't mind you freezing to death either."

That makes no sense if the American is actually sending gas to try and stop the European from freezing to death. If the American really didn't mind, why would she be trying to prevent the European from freezing?

The US is the big driver behind all of this and our government does not give a crap if Europe freezes.  Neither, evidently, do their politicians. 

I remember you saying that it might be a good thing since it would decrease their dependence on fossil fuel. Recently you said it was good if they got away from Russian oil.  You don't seem to be too worried. 

I have never seen a sign of an impending societal collapse more foreboding than unheated swimming pools.

Europe is surely doomed. Russia has won.

Three-day-a-week school is bad, and I'm sure you are aware what the effect of astronomically energy bills will be on individuals, small business and even big business.  

But, sure, focus on the swimming pools.  That's probably what the "experts" focused on so people who don't have heated swimming pools would not panic.  


nohero said:

The anti-Ukraine people really have to agree on a theme and stay with it.
They're just throwing mud against the wall and seeing what sticks.

Time for a reminder that there real, non-antisemitic ways to criticize Soros and Zelensky.  


PVW said:

"Difficult" is pretty far from "destroyed, " "wiped out," or "no energy." So maybe you don't need different sources, so much paying more attention to what sources are actually saying?

And PM or no, it's ridiculous to make economic predictions for 10 years. Even five years is hardly reliable. 

OK, then.  We shall see what happens.  I'm on Team Belgium and you are on Team tjohn.  Good Luck. 


nan said:

PVW said:

"Difficult" is pretty far from "destroyed, " "wiped out," or "no energy." So maybe you don't need different sources, so much paying more attention to what sources are actually saying?

And PM or no, it's ridiculous to make economic predictions for 10 years. Even five years is hardly reliable. 

OK, then.  We shall see what happens.  I'm on Team Belgium and you are on Team tjohn.  Good Luck. 

The only team that you are on is The Warmonger Alliance.   Don't ever forget that.


nan said:

Time for a reminder that there real, non-antisemitic ways to criticize Soros and Zelensky.  

jewkraine…as used by the people who are responding on that Twitter? What did you lace your coffee with today?


sbenois said:

The only team that you are on is The Warmonger Alliance.   Don't ever forget that.

No, that's your bailiwick. I wanted peace.  You got what you wanted.  You are on Team Boris J. 


nan said:

My source was the Belgian Prime Minister.  What's a more appropriate source?  tjohn? 

So, I guess this is like calling the IRS.  If you don't get the answer you want, you just keep calling until the person tells you more of what you want to hear?

Europe is in for 5 to 10 'difficult' winters as energy prices soar, Belgian prime minister says

https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-difficult-winters-ahead-belgian-pm-2022-8 

wholesale gas prices dropped 20% from Wednesday to yesterday. The Germans will figure it out pretty quickly the reliance on cheap Russian gas has become an issue of National security. Not just Germany, but the rest of Europe. Seems they are willing to make the sacrifices needed for the collective good of the entire continent. It’s the negative war mongering group you let fill your mind with their ideas, that’s your downfall. 


nan said:

sbenois said:

The only team that you are on is The Warmonger Alliance.   Don't ever forget that.

No, that's your bailiwick. I wanted peace.  You got what you wanted.  You are on Team Boris J. 

You could have had peace.  All you needed to do was tap your friend Vladi on the shoulder and tell him to stop his invasion.  Instead, you kept eating your caviar and crackers in between hitting the play button on yet another Jimmy Dore video that you made Putin watch.   The biggest surprise over the last six months is that you weren't tossed out of a Moscow hospital window by his bodyguards.


nan said:

Time for a reminder that there real, non-antisemitic ways to criticize Soros and Zelensky.  

And also a reminder that the Soros critics keep falling back on the antisemitic ones.


So, when things are bad, what does the US government do?  Answer:  make them worse.  Discussion in the video below--I am summarizing what is said--not exact wording.

The G7, has decided to put a price cap on Russian oil.  Very bad move.  This is an admission of defeat and the response is always to double down.  They are constantly looking for some way out.  The US treasury said it was a bad idea to ban Russian oil (Janet Yellen very much opposed) that came by ship but the Europeans did it anyway. Yellen came up with this idea to re-balance the oil market in some way by imposing this oil price cap and using the insurance market to enforce it. 90% of the oil from Russia imported into the EU comes by ship.  It's going to blow up in their faces. 

They are trying to get Russia to keep exporting oil but at a lower price.   They are trying to impose a price cap but it is not going to succeed. 

It is based on the assumption that China and India will play along.  Also, that they won't be able to get insurance services, which is nonsense.  The time of the world when London provided all the insurance services is gone.  

This is going to lead to major instability. The secondary markets are going to be loving this. Europe is already buying LNG from China which originated in Russia.  This is an oil smuggler's charter.

This is going to boomerang back and affect the collective west.  It's going to create oil shortages in an already tight market. Oil prices are going to rise. 

One thing they are not willing to do is to give up on the attrition war because all their credibility is not invested in it. This is the Kherson Offensive of the economic attrition.  The military experts in Ukraine said the Kherson offensive was a bad idea but we had it anyway.  Same with the oil price cap. 

Yellen made it clear that doing this ban would push the price of oil up but the hardliners won as they always do. The people who want the most idiotic sanctions always get their way. There is going to be a huge crisis come winter because by that point there is going to be accumulating oil shortages, massive imbalances in the oil market because we are going to find there is no oil from Russia coming to Europe, there is not enough oil coming from the Gulf to make that up. We are going to have a cascade effect on oil prices in the United States which is a very sensitive issue which are going to start rising as well.

So, Yellen says that instead of having the oil banned let's try to bring down the price by imposing this price cap on Russian oil.  It does not solve the problem.  Also, the previous import ban is not being lifted.  They are just adding this on to the other thing.  It creates more complexities.  It is disrupting the efficient working of the oil market. 

Oil will not be able to move smoothly around the world economy.  It will result in higher oil prices.  The Saudi's said not to do this.  They said the market is tight and Saudi Arabia is at the limits of what it can produce. All the big oil producers have said the same.  Every economist and oil industry specialist said it was a bad idea.  BUT, they are going to do it anyway.  

Saudi Arabia is probably looking at this and thinking, "Let's get into BRICS."  The leadership in the West are a bunch of Bozos.  

The more this fails and the more they press on with it -- think of Annalena Baerbock's comments (German politician who said Ukraine matters more than German voters--I've posted her comments twice), who says "I don't care about Germany.  We are just going to carry on with this thing until eventually we win."  Also that we are going to face down protests in Germany.  This is a deeply authoritarian response.  We also have the US President increasingly talking about the dangers to Democracy from the Republicans. The worse things get, the more these people are going to try to clamp down.  That is the dynamic that we are now seeing. They are going to double down on their anti-Russian policy and they are going to double down on anyone within their own societies who says "This is wrong."


nan said:

drummerboy said:

nan said:

PVW said:

nan said:

I did not think it was about that at all.  Are you sure that's the cartoon I posted?  The cartoon I posted was just snarky sarcasm. 

The cartoon has the European saying "I don't mind freezing to death this winter if it helps Ukraine," and the American saying "Funnily enough, I don't mind you freezing to death either."

That makes no sense if the American is actually sending gas to try and stop the European from freezing to death. If the American really didn't mind, why would she be trying to prevent the European from freezing?

The US is the big driver behind all of this and our government does not give a crap if Europe freezes.  Neither, evidently, do their politicians. 

I remember you saying that it might be a good thing since it would decrease their dependence on fossil fuel. Recently you said it was good if they got away from Russian oil.  You don't seem to be too worried. 

I have never seen a sign of an impending societal collapse more foreboding than unheated swimming pools.

Europe is surely doomed. Russia has won.

Three-day-a-week school is bad, and I'm sure you are aware what the effect of astronomically energy bills will be on individuals, small business and even big business.  

But, sure, focus on the swimming pools.  That's probably what the "experts" focused on so people who don't have heated swimming pools would not panic.  

focus on the swimming pools?

It's you who felt it was important enough to post about, not me. Or were you really more concerned with the change in pub hours?


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