Rain, more rain, and Joaquin.

This tool is a lot of fun to watch. Unfortunately, it's only based on one of the underlying forecast models GFS), so it's not to be taken as the gospel. But it really helps to visualize the complex interactions between large systems in place over the coming days. If you zoom in at about Delaware to a medium scale you can watch Joaquin develop in Atlantic and come up the coast. Regardless of what exact track it takes, it definitely looks like we are in for several days of strong NNE flow (moist and windy).

https://www.windyty.com/

What do our weather gurus think about this fairly scary article? I don't think of Slate as one of the standard fear-mongers.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/09/30/hurricane_joaquin_sandy_like_possibilities_and_a_scary_forecast_for_washington.html

It concerns me. I'm doing a mental inventory of all the stuff we've amassed for Hurricane preparedness. I'm not going to panic and go buying a two-week supply of water, ramen noodles and ammunition, but I want to make sure we're in good shape for a potential power outage. I've got my two marine batteries and inverter, and my boiler is now connected to an outlet with a plug so I can get heat if needed. Looks like it's going to get chilly for a few days post-Joaquin.

The one thing that bugs me is the generator I bought in the aftermath of Sandy doesn't start, and I've been too lazy to get it serviced. The closest place that does this particular brand of propane-fueled generator is in Carlstadt. And getting it there is going to be a nuisance.

They are already putting in place a lot of preparations in South Jersey- draining lakes, building up dunes so they must have some decent indicators that this storm could be a real concern

Friday will have rain but models show Joaquin isn't due to make landfall until at least Sunday or Monday so I don't think Friday will be a problematic travel day (any more so than in typical rain storms)

catch22 said:
This tool is a lot of fun to watch. Unfortunately, it's only based on one of the underlying forecast models GFS), so it's not to be taken as the gospel. But it really helps to visualize the complex interactions between large systems in place over the coming days. If you zoom in at about Delaware to a medium scale you can watch Joaquin develop in Atlantic and come up the coast. Regardless of what exact track it takes, it definitely looks like we are in for several days of strong NNE flow (moist and windy).
https://www.windyty.com/

now that is just way cool

I love a good tool.

catch22 said:
This tool is a lot of fun to watch. Unfortunately, it's only based on one of the underlying forecast models GFS), so it's not to be taken as the gospel. But it really helps to visualize the complex interactions between large systems in place over the coming days. If you zoom in at about Delaware to a medium scale you can watch Joaquin develop in Atlantic and come up the coast. Regardless of what exact track it takes, it definitely looks like we are in for several days of strong NNE flow (moist and windy).
https://www.windyty.com/

The scary thing is this is kind of what happened with Sandy -- big uncertainly early -- then the closer it got, the worse it got. And since it had been a pretty long while since a big storm hit the east coast, folks (e. g. Bloomberg) were complacent and discounting the worst case scenario, esp. on the storm surge.

We won't have that complacency this time, but it is hard to figure where to be in the preparation uncertainty cone--between over-hyped and under prepared.

At least this storm is not as enormous as Sandy was.

(and yes, that windily tool is fabulous and gorgeous)

Good reminder to at least get the cars filled with gas on Friday. I'll be doing my grocery shopping over the weekend either way but may up the quotient of canned things.

I found and was re-reading a thread I started a few years ago about severe weather preparation. The last post was just as Sandy was starting.

There was a brief debate about the need to fill your car with gas. Interesting to read now.

A hurricane season can't be complete without this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxdmw4tJJ1Y

Bring it.

xavier67 said:
A hurricane season can't be complete without this:

I was thinking more like this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro

catch22 said:
This tool is a lot of fun to watch. Unfortunately, it's only based on one of the underlying forecast models GFS), so it's not to be taken as the gospel. But it really helps to visualize the complex interactions between large systems in place over the coming days. If you zoom in at about Delaware to a medium scale you can watch Joaquin develop in Atlantic and come up the coast. Regardless of what exact track it takes, it definitely looks like we are in for several days of strong NNE flow (moist and windy).
https://www.windyty.com/

Love this!

I don't know about Bloomberg, but most media outlets were fairly accurate about Sandy three and even four days out. The track was much simpler than this one and the storm hit land right where, and just as strong, as predicted. The lack of response afterwards by the State of New Jersey, and the continuing failure to deal with the damage from the storm three years later, is another story.

The models are beginning to come together on a solution for Joaquin, but there is still enough variability to keep us from making forecasts yet. Also, this 'coming together' has only happened in the last 12 hours, so I for one would like to see a couple of more runs with consistent results, especially considering we still have three or four days to go.

Regardless of whether we see a full blown hurricane or tropical storm, 3-4 straight days of ENE to ESE winds at the coast is a recipe for significant flooding and beach damage. Water is already piling up and we haven't had the second round of heavy rains yet. NWS has already highlighted this in their coastal forecasts.

When is the exciting part expected to begin? I'm still on the fence about crossing Long Island Sound tomorrow and Friday... Meanwhile, at least I have decided a good grocery run is in order, including bottled water (no generator, and we depend on electricity to keep water flowing).

But I am still very perplexed about what is supposed to happen when.

PeggyC said:

But I am still very perplexed about what is supposed to happen when.

So are the forecasters. By tomorrow morning we could have some clarity.

Wxnut told me last night at 1am that a cat 4 hitting nj is very possible.

sbenois said:
Wxnut told me last night at 1am that a cat 4 hitting nj is very possible.

That makes me unhappy. Please stop talking to Wxnut.

I'm not sure he would like that.

Well maybe I'll just bake for him

Well, I inventoried supplies and made an Amazon order to replace expired batteries and such. Extra water...will fill up the cars and bump up the thermostat if chilly..

@mrincredible, have you gotten a waterBOB? that was my newest emergency prep addition!

WaterBOB sounds great, but we have just the one bathtub in our house. No other place to take a shower!

sbenois said:
Wxnut told me last night at 1am that a cat 4 hitting nj is very possible.

I work with a bunch of guys with phds in meteorology, they're chatter is pretty far away from that and pretty close to what max is saying atm.

Well, I filled up all my gas cans, just in case I need the generator.

sbenois said:
Wxnut told me last night at 1am that a cat 4 hitting nj is very possible.

NO. NO.

Look, I just wanted a little rain....at the end of gardening season, I was getting a little lazy...just wanted some relief from the task of watering. I DIDN'T ask for this BS. Put the storm back out into the ocean and let the sharks deal with it!!

Ugh ugh ugh. Did I mention that I am flying out Saturday morning to Charlotte NC?

And that wind map? The trippiest thing since black light.