Rain, more rain, and Joaquin.
Yes, but the models show possible tracks with landfall (as a tropical or subtropical storm) anywhere between DC and Boston.
Worst of this morning's rain has moved off to the north. Showers still likely throughout the day.
I'm physically restraining myself from asking if my flight out of Newark Saturday at 6am is likely to be delayed.
Whoops! Sorry about that.
deborahg said:
I'm physically restraining myself from asking if my flight out of Newark Saturday at 6am is likely to be delayed.
Whoops! Sorry about that.
You know the deal... first flights out are a safer bet since the plane you are on had to arrive the night before. So, as long as Saturday isn't a total disaster, you have a fighting chance of getting out on Sunday. That's the good news.
The bad news is that this particular Sunday may end up being an aviation nightmare. Some of my aviation forecasting buddies and I are looking at a scenario which has ENE winds at 30 kts for several days and gusting to 60+ in the early morning hours of Sunday (that's what the GFS model is currently showing). If that happens, you can kiss regular operations good-bye. 40kts if it goes due east is above the demonstrated crosswind capabilities of most of the aircraft (and outside the operating limitations of the individual airlines). In layman's terms, if that happens, you're completely and utterly screwed.
deborahg said:
Thanks! Leaving Saturday morning, not Sunday, so am hopeful.
I'm flying out Saturday am from EWR and fully expect to get out, given the current weather forecasts.
I have to run 10 miles this weekend. If I have to do it on a treadmill I might go bonkers.
1.57" AS OF 7:00 AM.
Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
**********************24 HOUR RAINFALL**********************
LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS/RAINFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
...ESSEX COUNTY...
NORTH CALDWELL 2.35 709 AM 9/30 CWOP
ESSEX FELLS 2.28 745 AM 9/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 E CANOE BROOK 2.12 745 AM 9/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 SSW WEST ORANGE 2.11 707 AM 9/30 CWOP
W CEDAR GROVE TWP 1.89 700 AM 9/30 COCORAHS
1 SE MAPLEWOOD TWP 1.57 700 AM 9/30 COCORAHS
1 NW NUTLEY 1.43 659 AM 9/30 CWOP
MONTCLAIR 1.41 708 AM 9/30 CWOP
NEWARK INTL AIRPORT 1.30 751 AM 9/30 ASOS
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-011000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
356 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK
TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING FLOODING CONCERNS. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST ON TROPICAL SYSTEM HURRICANE JOAQUIN THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.
roycer said:
When is the storm most likely to impact this area?
Thanks
My post was not meant as an answer to your questions.
I am looking at the forecast now and will do a more thorough update later this morning.
Curious too on day's most impacted. I have a Sunsay am flight I can change now if need be to Monday or Saturday if that would be better
We have a difficult and complex set up this week.
For now, the rain is mostly over for this morning and early afternoon as the cold front moves through the area. Rain could develop behind the front, which is expected to stall off the coast this evening, but nothing serious.
After tomorrow things get quite complex, with the continuing deep wet warm moisture flow (sounds like porn) from the tropics, a blocking high pressure over Canada, and Joaquin.
Friday could see some significant rainfall ahead of the hurricane. (Joaquin itself should not
get here before late Saturday at the earliest, see below). This might include some significant thunderstorm activity, but also might not. There is simply no way to tell at this time.
Beyond Saturday night, it would be completely speculative to make a prediction.
Regarding Joaquin, this is what the NWS is saying:
US National
Weather Service Eastern Region HQ
Wednesday, September 30 at 9:11am ·
Joaquin has been upgraded to a Hurricane this morning with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The current forecast is for some additional strengthening with Joaquin reaching Category 2 intensity by the end of the week.
There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the forecast track for Joaquin. Note how the uncertainty
cone in the forecast track graphic from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center covers a large portion of the East Coast.
Quite a bit of rain fell Tuesday evening and overnight from the Washington DC metro area north through the
Hudson Valley and into central New England where heavy rains continue to fall this morning. Regardless of the track of Joaquin, the feed of tropical moisture across the Eastern Seaboard will continue into early next week, resulting in more very heavy rains and increasing potential for flooding.
conandrob240 said:
Curious too on day's most impacted. I have a Sunday am flight I can change now if need be to Monday or Saturday if that would be better
So my best answer is, unfortunately, I don't know.
As always, max, thanks for the thoughtful and non-hyped analysis.
mrincredible said:
As always, max, thanks for the thoughtful and non-hyped analysis.
And the porn!
kthnry said:
mrincredible said:And the porn!
As always, max, thanks for the thoughtful and non-hyped analysis.
Hm. Weather-themed porn titles? Challenge accepted.
"Thunderhead"
Why Max and the NWS don't know:
"KEY MESSAGES:
1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.
2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.
3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/301458.shtml?
Next update @ 5:00 pm
The suspense is killing me. From what I'm seeing, the majority of the models are trending toward a direct hit on the North Carolina or Virginia coast; but the NHC is so far maintaining a track more to the east--translating to a direct hit on New Jersey--"out of respect" for certain models that take the storm much farther east and out to sea...
max_weisenfeld said: Note how the uncertainty cone in the forecast track graphic from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center covers a large portion of the East Coast.
Uncertainty cone?
We have an international flight late in the day on Friday ...looks like delays are possible
Major flooding near my sister-in-law's house in Roanoke VA. It could be much worse...