Final snow total, 6.3" here, 15"+ on Long Island

NWS updated map

I have a flight scheduled to land Newark Airport at 7 PM Thursday. Is there any chance it WON'T be cancelled (i.e. should I switch to a flight today)?

Reflecting further, I'm guessing that the inability of planes getting out of Newark earlier in the day will prevent planes from coming in even if things are clear-ish in the evening...

lanky said:

I have a flight scheduled to land Newark Airport at 7 PM Thursday. Is there any chance it WON'T be cancelled (i.e. should I switch to a flight today)?

Max got a storm for his birthday!

should I go to Shoprite right now?

drummerboy said:

should I go to Shoprite right now?

Too late, lines around the block. Suggest you make hotel reservations through the weekend. [ETA, this was intended to be humorous. No actual idea about the situation at Shoprite].

Dropped a neighbor at the airport first thing this morning, stopped at ShopRite in Springfield on my way back. Was just doing regular shopping, but the shelves were full and the store fairly empty of customers.

Happy birthday, Max! Enjoy your storm!

Feels like Florida outside now! Doesn't feel real that snow it on the way.

I'm going to wait for more data before I commit but a couple of the models are trending towards higher snow numbers than we forecast.

If there is any way you can be prepared to not leave the house tomorrow, you should. Not ready to say, stay home, quite yet, but bring home the laptop and charge your phone, folks, Thursday is not going to be a good day to be out in the morning.

I also suppose this is as good a time as any for my annual disclaimer.

I am not a meteorologist, and almost all the information I use and share comes from the National Weather service: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Maplewood&state=NJ&site=OKX&textField1=40.7331&textField2=-74.2719&e=0

Now more than ever, with science under attack at the federal level, please support your National Weather Service.

Please refer to the NWS for up-to-date information on watches and warnings, and take them seriously.

I hope they make the call on school in timely manner.

The schools tend to call us at 5-6am with the closures or delayed opening.

What I'm worried about is my work, as they have had issues with providing timely or consistent messages when communicating work attendance/travel expectations on days of inclement weather.

Happy Birthday, Max, and thanks for keeping us all up to date on the weather front! I hate snow, but if it makes you happy for your birthday, I can live with it!

REVISED FORECAST

With the afternoon models, the system is coming more into focus and we have a couple of changes.

The NWS is pushing the changeover out to 3:00 - 5:00am. This means a longer period of rain and more likelihood of sleet. It also means that in the morning the situation may not look as serious as the forecast. Do not be deceived.

The snowfall projections have been increased to 10 - 13" for our area after the changeover. There may be a period in the morning where snowfall could reach 2 - 3" an hour. This rate of snowfall will overwhelm the ability of roadcrews to keep up. If you are out during this period, there is a good possibility you will be stranded.

There is still some divergence in the models on timing. The arrival is between 2:00 and 4:00am, the changeover anywhere between 3:00 and 6:00, with general agreement that the peak will be from about 6:00 - noon or 1:00, and a tapering off that clears the area in the early evening.

Thursday morning commute will be a mess, and Thursday evening commute will likely be affected by residual clean-up issues.

ugh! At least we've have a fairly easy winter so far. What were our snow totals as of this time last year?

I just hope the powers that make the decision on whether to close will realize that heavy snowfall mid morning part. REALLY don't want to get stuck at work...

bets said:

I just hope the powers that make the decision on whether to close will realize that heavy snowfall mid morning part. REALLY don't want to get stuck at work...

Agreed Bets. I mean once the models get run this afternoon/this evening, they should be able to make the call. We know it's happening. Call it. Other districts already have.

I'm talking about a certain university in Morris county, but I really hope SOMA makes the call tonight!

mammabear said:

bets said:

I just hope the powers that make the decision on whether to close will realize that heavy snowfall mid morning part. REALLY don't want to get stuck at work...

Agreed Bets. I mean once the models get run this afternoon/this evening, they should be able to make the call. We know it's happening. Call it. Other districts already have.

Rutgers has called it: All campuses closed tomorrow:

http://www.rutgers.edu/

Millburn just called it.

I read NYC, Livingston, WO I think?

Models continue to verify the forecast: 10 - 12", changeover before the morning rush, done by late afternoon.

Luckily, this is a fast-moving system, with nothing out east of us to block it. As it is, we will be getting between 3/4 and 1 inch of water in just over 12 hours. If the temps are near freezing, that's 8 - 10" of heavy wet snow. At 25, it is 11 - 15" of fluffy powder. If the storm were to stall, which is very unlikely, add 1 - 2" per hour it sits.

Call your boss, tell her you will be working from home tomorrow.

Fancy NWS map

SOMSD called it now, too.

SOMSD closed per email

Crap, I have a doctor's appointment tomorrow at 11. And he's usually booked for weeks in advance and I know my tsh level off and my synthroid needs to be adjusted. Ugh.

jamie said:

ugh! At least we've have a fairly easy winter so far. What were our snow totals as of this time last year?

20.1" at my house. Almost all fell on 1/24/16 and 1/25/16

HAPPY BIRTHDAY MAX!!!

spontaneous said:

Crap, I have a doctor's appointment tomorrow at 11. And he's usually booked for weeks in advance and I know my tsh level off and my synthroid needs to be adjusted. Ugh.

Did you get your blood work done? If so, he can look at it and adjust without your coming in the office. Might not be until Friday though.