Winter Storm Warning - Wednesday Dec 16 into Thursday Dec 17

Good points, all. My main reason is that, with 1.5 bad discs in my back, it’ll be easier to stay out of the emergency room by shoveling lighter loads. 


metaphysician said:

Good points, all. My main reason is that, with 1.5 bad discs in my back, it’ll be easier to stay out of the emergency room by shoveling lighter loads. 

 Do be careful.  It sounds like this will be heavy snow and it may be difficult to stay ahead of it!


If you can, maybe its a year to recruit/pay for some help.  You can also take it easy and slow even if you wait til storm is over.  My own view with a big snowfall is start by slowly creating one shovel-wide lane.  It's enough to let you and other people through.  If and when you have more energy, you can start clearing a wider path. 


Snow is overspreading our area now, although the cold dry air is still keeping it from reaching the ground, that will not last long. then snow will be steady, then heavy. The NAM model still has that nasty changeover around 8/9pm. If sleet happens then, that will tell the story for the next few hours, depressing snow depth. Winds pick up later, and either way precipitation continues overnight (changing back to all snow by midnight if sleeting occurred) and ends tomorrow morning.


It just started coming down in West Orange.


Nobody has mentioned my favorite kind of frozen precipitation yet.


FWIW the HRRR appears to be nailing this thus far.


Mr. Incredible, here you go:  May your days be filled with bucketfuls of Graupel.


mrincredible said:

Nobody has mentioned my favorite kind of frozen precipitation yet.

Frozen daiquiris, perhaps? 

If so, I’ll take a pineapple or passion fruit. 

Thanks, sac & bub. I’m pretty sure  we’ve got someone to plow us out, but why let them have all the fun? And I mostly push the snow. I never lift the snow until the very end and even then I try to just tip it sideways. 

I wish I could find that picture of me shoveling snow in shorts & Tshirt, back before I felt the cold. My demi-Canadian heritage used to protect me, but entropy took that away. Sigh...


metaphysician said:

mrincredible said:

Nobody has mentioned my favorite kind of frozen precipitation yet.

Frozen daiquiris, perhaps? 

If so, I’ll take a pineapple or passion fruit. 

Thanks, sac & bub. I’m pretty sure  we’ve got someone to plow us out, but why let them have all the fun? And I mostly push the snow. I never lift the snow until the very end and even then I try to just tip it sideways. 

I wish I could find that picture of me shoveling snow in shorts & Tshirt, back before I felt the cold. My demi-Canadian heritage used to protect me, but entropy took that away. Sigh...

 I remember that pic.


metaphysician said:

mrincredible said:

Nobody has mentioned my favorite kind of frozen precipitation yet.

I wish I could find that picture of me shoveling snow in shorts & Tshirt, back before I felt the cold. My demi-Canadian heritage used to protect me, but entropy took that away. Sigh...

 That and your oil excavation pic are a couple of MOL epics.


WxNut2.0 said:

FWIW the HRRR appears to be nailing this thus far.

 No sleet on the HRRR


max_weisenfeld said:

 No sleet on the HRRR

And what does the HRRR predict for a snowfall total?


max_weisenfeld said:

WxNut2.0 said:

FWIW the HRRR appears to be nailing this thus far.

 No sleet on the HRRR

 I wouldn't worry about that -- precip type is parameterized. It's getting this pretty much spot on. 


Steve said:

max_weisenfeld said:

 No sleet on the HRRR

And what does the HRRR predict for a snowfall total?

 About a foot


WxNut2.0 said:

 About a foot

 Thanks.


Per the Storm Prediction Center, an uptick in snowfall rates expected


Dry slot might be moving in...


That would be nice. It is a solid snowfall already so maybe you could call in a favor for us, huh?

Just hoping this won't be our fate tomorrow morning. It pays to do some pre-work, true, but the Muppet's needs do not wait.


shanabana said:

Is it over?
LOL
 

 Dont think it’s totally over but this dry slot is pretty stout. There’ll be a few more bursts overnight. This was definitely a concern. 


Actually nice out - just got back in from shoveling. 


I shoveled a few inches worth off my covered porch & front steps. It seems like pretty lightweight stuff. 

Edited to add: Finally found that old picture. It's from ten years and a hundred pounds ago. No wonder I get cold now!


looks like it's starting up again, though the snow is very fine this time.

Or maybe it's just blowing around.


Is this yet again a snowpocalypse that’s all talk and no precipitation?  I heard “grauple” (forgive me it might not be technically right, but such a good word) on my windows last night. 


looks like 3 or so inches in my yard. Is it all over or is this a slot?  I bet my kids with an over under of 7 inches. Once school closes the night before, we generally trend downward on totals. 

Jersey people doing a milk and eager reflexively, despite covid, sounds like a potential superspreader event, god forbid.  



Thursday morning update

Heaviest precipitation appears to have ended.

Snow showers may continue for several hours but expect less than another inch or so to accumulate. Winds will continue to die down over the next few hours as well, but this morning still expect 20+ mph gusts, so blowing/drifting snow may be an issue. Expect temps to remain below freezing today, and only slightly above for short periods Friday and Saturday, so snow will be here for awhile.


Pangur1 said:

Is this yet again a snowpocalypse that’s all talk and no precipitation?  I heard “grauple” (forgive me it might not be technically right, but such a good word) on my windows last night. 

looks like 3 or so inches in my yard. Is it all over or is this a slot?  I bet my kids with an over under of 7 inches. Once school closes the night before, we generally trend downward on totals. 

Jersey people doing a milk and eager reflexively, despite covid, sounds like a potential superspreader event, god forbid.  


 Lots of variation in depth here. Looks like it's maybe 4-5 inches next to my car based on how deep the tires are. In another spot I can only see "Biden" on our "Biden Harris" sign. The wind has pushed it around a lot already. But this was significant. 

Looks like I have lots of customers awaiting me at the bird feeders. I filled them yesterday but will need to do again.


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