Lamb - Saccone Woo Hoo, Did the Dems actually do this?

Kornacki says the recount margin is .5%. Right now its .4%

We are in hanging chad territory. By the time we know who won here, it won't be a district any more.

peaceinourtime said:

Both CNN and MSNBC are making the point that absentee ballots in PA went to Clinton by a 4% margin, in 2016.

Not a very good point, IMO, since that would have been statewide and this is a heavily Republican-leaning district.

True, but they are talking about absentee ballots in Allegheny county. 

DaveSchmidt said:

peaceinourtime said:

Both CNN and MSNBC are making the point that absentee ballots in PA went to Clinton by a 4% margin, in 2016.

Not a very good point, IMO, since that would have been statewide and this is a heavily Republican-leaning district.

Mr. I. had the better point, I think: Whether Lamb wins by tenths of a percentage point or Saccone does, it doesn’t really affect the bigger picture, however one wants to frame it.

peaceinourtime said:

True, but they are talking about absentee ballots in Allegheny county. 

Doesn’t seem to make much sense, either, to talk about absentees from only part of the district.

DaveSchmidt said:

Mr. I. had the better point, I think: Whether Lamb wins by tenths of a percentage point or Saccone does, it doesn’t really affect the bigger picture, however one wants to frame it.

I like Brian Williams' word for it...a barn burner, 95 vote difference.

DaveSchmidt said:

Mr. I. had the better point, I think: Whether Lamb wins by tenths of a percentage point or Saccone does, it doesn’t really affect the bigger picture, however one wants to frame it.

I like Brian Williams' word for it...a barn burner, 95 vote difference. Allegheny County has 3500 absentee ballots, other counties have a total of 3100 or so, so absentee ballots will be split. It will be a recount if the difference is 0.5% or less.

i call a recount. Full stop.

I wonder who the votes for the Independent effected.

We won't know the outcome until.tomorrow at the earliest. My bet is Republicans will squeak.it out, because they often do.

Morganna said:

I wonder who the votes for the Independent effected.

Libertarian. So ...

Noowww, Lamb needs to get 0.2% more of an edge out of about 1400 absentee ballots. He  has had at least a sliver over Saccone, if not a significant advantage. John King says Saccone would have to get 70% of the remaining 1400 absentee ballots to be anywhere near catching up to or overtaking Lamb, and "judging from the way things have been going at the ballotbox today, i wouldn't bet on it!" The 0.5% has to be the difference between the two candidates' votes. Lamb is saying he won, but no news agencies are doing that. GO CONOR!!!

peaceinourtime said:

It will be a recount if the difference is 0.5% or less.

There is no automatic recount provision for congressional races in Pennsylvania.

hmm, Lamb claims victory - seems too close to do this.

Saccone can't win. There arent enough military ballots. He can't get enough absentees, he definitely won't get as many provisionals as Lamb will, Lamb has 579 election day ballots more than Saccone, so Saccone can't wrap this up without a major miracle (for him.) Time for Republicans to go back to the proverbial drawing board.

.

Conor Lamb just emailed to claim victory and thank me for my support. I sure hope he's right.

kthnry said:

Conor Lamb just emailed to claim victory and thank me for my support. I sure hope he's right.

Congratulations!!! And thank you!!!

Hah!! Yes. The pundits said Saccone would have to pay for a recount if he insists on it and if he's within that 0.5% range.

DaveSchmidt said:

peaceinourtime said:

It will be a recount if the difference is 0.5% or less.

There is no automatic recount provision for congressional races in Pennsylvania.

The Washington County absentee ballots came in after an agonizing wait and Lamb actually gained a few votes, so he's leading by more than the margin of absentees in the one remaining county. So unless a recount finds a big problem somewhere, Lamb has it won.

It's not even certain that Saccone wants to give the effort to try again for an eight-month seat that's changing due to redistricting. Someone said, he's already thinking of filing for one of the new district races that wouldn't be against Lamb.

Both here and in Alabama, the president knew there was an opportunity for a humiliating loss and had every chance to avoid getting involved, yet he can't help himself.

It looks like Trump almost pulled it off for Saccone so you can't dispute the sense of him getting involved there.  Moore, on the other hand, was a different story.  Moore was so toxic and destructive that his win might have been worse for Trump than his loss.   

Stoughton said:



Both here and in Alabama, the president knew there was an opportunity for a humiliating loss and had every chance to avoid getting involved, yet he can't help himself.

Win or lose at this point it is a clear message, but that's all it is with the redistricting.

Pulled what off exactly, sir bub?  Trump won this district by 20 points and now if Saccone wins it's a squeaker.  A nail-biter.  The skin of his teeth. 

I scoff at your assertion, sirrah.  With a high degree of scoffitude. 

Looks like its final. Lamb is ahead by 500+. In order to win, Saccone would need 70% of the outstanding military absentee votes --- if all are even submitted.

A nation-wide 20 point swing is going to be painful for Republicans.

No need to get scoffy.  I was rooting for Lamb all the way. 

Winning matters. That's the ultimate aim of all this stuff - win, govern, enact your agenda etc.  Yes, the fact that its a nail biter shows that Democrats have become energized and some Trump voters are disillusioned but that doesn't mean, if your Trump or the GOP, you don't do everything you can to win a winnable seat.

  mrincredible said:

Pulled what off exactly, sir bub?  Trump won this district by 20 points and now if Saccone wins it's a squeaker.  A nail-biter.  The skin of his teeth. 

I scoff at your assertion, sirrah.  With a high degree of scoffitude. 

NBC has declared him the winner. 

bub said:

No need to get scoffy.  I was rooting for Lamb all the way. 


Winning matters. That's the ultimate aim of all this stuff - win, govern, enact your agenda etc.  Yes, the fact that its a nail biter shows that Democrats have become energized and some Trump voters are disillusioned but that doesn't mean, if your Trump or the GOP, you don't do everything you can to win a winnable seat.

  mrincredible said:

Pulled what off exactly, sir bub?  Trump won this district by 20 points and now if Saccone wins it's a squeaker.  A nail-biter.  The skin of his teeth. 

I scoff at your assertion, sirrah.  With a high degree of scoffitude. 

Showing up to a campaign rally with some kind of coherent focused message to support Saccone would have been helpful. It might have gotten 700 more Republican voters to show up at the polls. But instead they were treated to another rambling tirade about whatever gremlins are pushing buttons under that hairpiece. This should have been a winnable Republican seat fo shizzle.

Nevertheless I'll return my scoff to the scoff cabinet. 

"whatever gremlins are pushing buttons under that hairpiece" OK Mr. I. now that is an image I will never get out of my head.