It's Time Again for the Hot Stove League!

According to ESPN, White Sox just  made an offer for 8 years.  And guessing from what is going on, that might as good as it gets.  One report had said the Yankees discussed a 6 year contract with Manny (at over $30,000,00/year.  Bad timing for Manny and Bryce.  

Not much going on in the Hot Stove League this morning, so one site posted thoughts on Mike Trout and his free agency in 2021. 

Here is a link to Major League Leaderboards. 
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

When you look at the cold, hard numbers, Trout is far and away the best player in baseball the last decade.  If you are a fan of WAR, his WAR is 64.  The next closest player is Josh Donaldson at 36.8.  That is an astonishing gap.  For comparison, Harper is the 12th best at 30.7; Machado is 14th at 30.2.  (Goldschmidt is 4th at 35.7.  Cards fans hope he can keep this up in 2019!).

But even if you are a fan of the good old stats (average, HR, RBI, fielding) or even the moderately new stats (OBP and OPS), Trout is among the top five in almost every category over the last decade. 

The debate is, should the Angels sign him to an extension now or in 2020 if possible, and conversely, should Trout test the FA market in 2021 regardless?  He is already at $38.5MM this year, and the Harper and Machado experiences show that perhaps the very top tier is slowing down out there, even for 26 year old super stars.  For comparison, Trout will be 29 in 2021.

Trout is known to be a low key guy, so maybe he likes it in laid back California?  Maybe the Angels can commit to building a winner around him and he chooses to stay?  The Angels only have two contracts committed into 2021 (Pujols at $30MM, and Upton at $23MM), and "only" $110MM committed in 2020, so they have a lot of ability to bring in good players over the next two years to try to get Trout to the World Series.  

mfpark said:

Trout is known to be a low key guy, so maybe he likes it in laid back California?  

Point of order: Low key and laid back are two different attitudes. Low key (especially Quaker-influenced, Philly-area low key) can be pretty intense; laid back (especially Southern California laid back) can be pretty ostentatious.

Not that they don’t get along, or even coexist in the same person. (Oh, hello, Chase.) But if the SoCal show-offs start grating on you, Mike, you’re always welcome home.

I just can't see him in a Phillies' uniform.

Signed, a Mets Fan.

I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s fun looking back on walking my son and a few neighborhood kids to elementary school and hearing one of them talk about a first cousin in South Jersey who was a pretty good high school baseball player.

DaveSchmidt said:
I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s fun looking back on walking my son and a few neighborhood kids to elementary school and hearing one of them talk about a first cousin in South Jersey who was a pretty good high school baseball player.

that stuff is cool.

My son had an elementary school friend who, when he was 4 years old, batted whiffle balls off Adam Wainwright, who was his cousin's minor league roommate. The cousin was a pretty good player too -- Kelly Johnson.

Kelly Johnson--played for both the Mets and the Braves in 2015 and in 2016.  How often does that happen--same two teams two years in a row?

Yanks sign Ottavino.

Red Sox were in the hunt on him.  Increases likelihood that Kimbrel is resigned by Red Sox, but they also may be shut out of elite closers this year.

Red Sox already lost Kelly and did not sigh Ottavino, Robertson or Britton.  They still might be the best team in baseball but should make it more interesting.  

Yankees starting pitching improved but not sure it is enough, especially if Severino's season looks more like the second half of last year.  

Cody Allen signed by Angels. 

In Boston, Dombrowski is playing hardball with Kimbrel, saying he is happy to go with a closer by committee of Barnes, Brazier, Thornburgh, and Wright.  Um, right.

I can hear Kimbrel and his agent laughing right now.

I can see Kimbrel caving before Drombowski -- Kimbrel scared away a lot of potential teams with some of his shaky outings last sept and oct.  

closer is the most overrated role in all of sports.  The Yanks are recognizing this, and I expect them to use more than one guy in the 9th inning this season, depending on how games play out.

yeah.  Chapman is overrated....  So was Rivera.

Robert_Casotto said:
yeah.  Chapman is overrated....  So was Rivera.

that wasn't what I wrote of course.  (btw, do you ever post without being sarcastic?)

The ROLE of closer is indeed overrated.  Rivera was a great pitcher, no doubt.  But there are very good arguments to be made that over the years the Yankees would have won even more games if they had occasionally had him pitch a high leverage 7th inning instead of coming in to the 9th inning against the bottom of the order.  

and despite your sarcasm toward me, the smart guys who are paid to win baseball games are coming around to that idea.  Use your best reliever in the highest leverage late innings spot, not just in the 9th innning.

for everyone's reading pleasure:

Baseball Is Finally Realizing That The Save Is Dumb

If only they’d have put Rivera in before the Ninth in Games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS, we would’t all be talking with a Southie accent.

Resist, ml1. You'll never match wits.

DaveSchmidt said:
Resist, ml1. You'll never match wits.

I'm posting for the people who like to know stuff.  

Let’s say, hypothetically, of course.  Rivera gets caught in a random police sobriety checkpoint. Is he required to take the Field Sobriety check or can he refuse?

Markakis re-signs with Braves.  No shock there.  I think his market was pretty limited.  He got off to a hot start last year, but his second half was cold and I think that scared a lot of teams off.

Harper is sitting down with the Padres.  If he signs there you can forget his enshrinement in Cooperstown.  It will kill his career.  Has it really come to this for Harper?

Machado is still going nowhere.  There seem to be almost no rumors these days about him, except that I hear the Padres might be making an offer.

Kimbrel, Keuchel, and Moustakis are not even blips on the rumor radar.

This is the second year where a large number of star free agents may open Spring Training without a team.

So, is this Owner collusion once again? 

Or is it simply Owners getting tired of signing long term deals only to watch the stars age in place at very high annual salaries?

This is going to be a problem when the CBA is up.  The players are going to have to push for free agency after 2 or 3 years.

Perhaps we are reaching the point where the current model is unsustainable (but that has been said before and proven to not be true).

Owners make too much money.  Sorry, but it is a fact.  And players make too much money. That also is a fact. 

I know, the players have world class entertainment talent on a par with any movie star.  Well, I think they make too much, as well.

All the money at the top comes at the cost of others.  Minor leaguers play and coach for below minimum wage and live in rotten conditions (lousy hotels, lousy buses, etc).  Some of the riches from the MLB side should be used on the farm.  Cities and counties get jacked up by owners to build stadiums for teams, or at the very least forego tax revenues by floating bonds or foregoing taxes.  Again, the riches of the owners and players should actually be reduced to cover these costs.  It is not right for Amazon to do it, and it is not right for the Atlanta Braves to do it, either.

And tickets and concessions are so sky high in cost that only corporations and the wealthy can afford to attend a lot of games each season.  Live baseball is far from America's past time now, unless you are one of the gilded.  Lower salaries could mean lower ticket and concession prices, which would be good for fans and great for the game.

Allowing the system to go on as it is now will likely undermine fan support over time, alienating the fan base with bloated superstar contracts and bloated ticket costs.

mfpark said:
Lower salaries could mean lower ticket and concession prices, which would be good for fans and great for the game.

I agree with some of what you've written and I disagree with some it. But I disagree most with this statement. Any revenue not spent on salaries will almost certainly go straight into the owners' pockets. The price of tickets and concessions will continue to be whatever the market will bear. 

I agree with the idea of pushing more money into minor league salaries.  And raise the major league minimum salary while heavily loading pension payments early.  

  If management now feels that over 28 or 29 is done, they have to get their share earlier.

mfpark said:
Perhaps we are reaching the point where the current model is unsustainable (but that has been said before and proven to not be true). ...

This entire post is fun to read as if it were coming from your avatar.

DaveSchmidt said:

mfpark said:
Perhaps we are reaching the point where the current model is unsustainable (but that has been said before and proven to not be true). ...

This entire post is fun to read as if it were coming from your avatar.

 Exactly!  Rant rant rant rant rant.  It has been that kind of week.  I am on fire all over social media, at my job, at home.  I have becoming one of those ranting lunatics on the subway (albeit dressed in a suit and well-showered) and people hedge away from me on the seats while I defile the greedy bastards who are both Owners and Players!

Granderson signs with the Marlins.

The good news is that he brings a great clubhouse and veteran presence to a young and woeful team.  He is buds with his boss and former teammate--and age group peer--Derek Jeter.  He still has good at bats against right handed pitching.

The bad news is that he is a Dick Stuart-sized liability in the field and his splits against left-handed pitching have gotten even worse in the last few years.  

Man, the Marlins look to be a real mess again this year.

I think the issue for owners has been the length of the contracts.  the days of 10 year contracts are over.  I think both Machado and Harper would be getting 30 mill plus if they would accept a 5 or 6 year contract.   

Cashman has made it clear he has no interest in a 10 year contract.  Supposedly he discussed a 6 year contract with Machado who balked at anything less than 10 years.  

When one or more teams in professional sports goes bankrupt, we will then see real changes to the whole structure.  But for now, it makes no sense to go to a game with kids vs other entertainment. 

mikescott said:
But for now, it makes no sense to go to a game with kids vs other entertainment. 

Going to the ballpark as a family and cultivating a love of the game in our son has provided rewards that I wouldn’t trade for all the other entertainments in the world. 

He’s almost 20 now, but if I had a newborn I’d make the same choice today.