It's Time Again for the Hot Stove League!

Yanks sign Tulowitzki to a MLB minimum contract (the Blue Jays eat the rest of his big contract--$38MM over the next three years, including a buyout of his last year).

At first blush, it looks like a great move by Cashman.  While Tulowitzki has barely played the last two years due to injuries, if he comes back anywhere near his former self he is a cheap pick up with power who can cover shortstop until Gregorius returns.  And this has no impact on the chase for Machado since it is a MLB minimum contract.

BUT (of course), there are significant implications.  This is an MLB contract, which means the Yanks need to cut someone else from the 40 man roster to make room for Tulowitzki.   That makes it a far more expensive deal in terms of impact on the team.  If Tulo cannot come back well from injury and has to be cut, the Yanks have potentially lost a young player to Rule 5.   

Even if Tulo works out physically, once Didi comes back Tulo goes to the bench and is very limited.  They do not need a DH at all, with Stanton and Judge around, and Tulo has not played other positions in the infield.  Compare that to Ronald Torreyes whom they DFA'ed and then traded to the Cubs for the famous "player to be named later."  This happened because the Yanks claimed Parker Bridwell (who?) off waivers and had to trim the 40 man roster (and the Yankees then DFA'ed Bridwell to make room for Happ--Bridwell was then claimed by the Angels) . 

Torreyes could play three infield positions and had a lively bat and reasonable legs.  In effect, they gave up on the flexible and younger Torres for the inflexible and recently injured Tulo whom the Blue Jays thought so little of that they are eating his salary to make room on their own 40 man roster.  And now someone else has to be culled from the Yankees' roster.

One last comment.  I think it would be a mess for the Yankees to sign Machado at this point.  With Tulo on board and only able to play SS, and Didi coming back mid-year, Machado has to wind up at third base, which means trading Andujar.  That would be a huge mistake by the Yankees.

mfpark said:
Yanks sign Tulowitzki to a MLB minimum contract (the Blue Jays eat the rest of his big contract--$38MM over the next three years, including a buyout of his last year).

Brings back memories from way back in 2013 when we had a pretty long argument on the Mets fan thread about whether it made sense to trade for him.  I was dead set against it at the time, and it's funny how Tulo's deal ended up being even WORSE than I predicted, and I was pretty bearish.  This was from September, 2013.  Now I'm REALLY glad the Mets held on to Wheeler and passed on Tulowitski

ml1 said:
and one other intangible that doesn't get discussed. a lot of Mets fans will be insane if the Mets give up some good prospects for a guy making Tulowitski's dough, and he only plays 100-120 games a season. even before the 2006 Game 7 strikeout, the majority of Mets fans already hated, hated Carlos Beltran because he was injured so much of 2005. Then the injuries in 2009-10 sealed the deal for most fans with Beltran. imagine giving up Wheeler for Tulo, and he wins 17-18 games in Colorado and Tulowitski spends a 100 games on the DL. Mets fans will be beside themselves. I wouldn't not do a deal because half of my fan base is nuts, but again it would give me pause about giving up a potential ace pitcher.

You are missing part of the equation.  Didi is a free agent after this year.  If Tulo is really back from his injuries Didi loses his job and is replaced by a league minimum salary player.

FilmCarp said:
If Tulo is really back from his injuries 

 a big if.  David Wright played in more games than Tulo in 2018.

I think MF Park is spot on and really having a hard time understanding this move.  My guess is that the let Tulo go once Didi comes back assuming they get Machado and assuming Machada will play 3b.  Cashman is probably not too worried about resigning Didi and is probably confident he can do assuming Didi makes a full recovery.  

Yankee starting pitching staff is better than last season (not sure about the bullpen at this point) but probably still not good enough to go all the way.  

FilmCarp said:
You are missing part of the equation.  Didi is a free agent after this year.  If Tulo is really back from his injuries Didi loses his job and is replaced by a league minimum salary player.

 Man, I would rather go all in on Didi and Andujar than spend a dime on Harper or Machado if I were the Yankees.  

But there is no assurance that Didi is going to fully recover.

FilmCarp said:
But there is no assurance that Didi is going to fully recover.

 Still would not spend on Machado like that.  There are risk in all their moves, of course, but I would sooner count on Didi coming back strong than upset the whole apple cart--as well as the clubhouse--with Machado.

FilmCarp said:
But there is no assurance that Didi is going to fully recover.

 and Machado is younger than Didi.  If I was Cashman, I'd go after Machado before Harper.  And I'd let Didi walk after the season and keep Andujar.

ml1 said:

FilmCarp said:
But there is no assurance that Didi is going to fully recover.

 and Machado is younger than Didi.  If I was Cashman, I'd go after Machado before Harper.  And I'd let Didi walk after the season and keep Andujar.

 But you're not Cash, and a Met fan to boot. As a Yankee fan, I love this move, since it costs NOTHING, and may be the bridge we need to get back to Didi. I support signing Machado, even with his baggage, and play him at 3rd. Andujar should then be packaged to get a solid #2 starter, or even an ace (with Frazier and a couple of bags of balls.).

It's not because I'm a Mets fan.  It's because I'm not a fan of re-signing SSs who are going to be in their 30s for most of the duration of a deal.  Especially ones who are coming off TJ surgery.

And I think Andujar is going to be a perennial All-Star.

ml1 said:
It's not because I'm a Mets fan.  It's because I'm not a fan of re-signing SSs who are going to be in their 30s for most of the duration of a deal.  Especially ones who are coming off TJ surgery.
And I think Andujar is going to be a perennial All-Star.

 Except there is ZERO risk in signing Tulo. If he's healthy, it's an amazing deal. If not, cut him...we only committed to a $550k sallary. Andujar MAY become a star, but I would emphasize the MAY. His natural position is DH.

Dennis_Seelbach said:

ml1 said:
It's not because I'm a Mets fan.  It's because I'm not a fan of re-signing SSs who are going to be in their 30s for most of the duration of a deal.  Especially ones who are coming off TJ surgery.
And I think Andujar is going to be a perennial All-Star.

 Except there is ZERO risk in signing Tulo. If he's healthy, it's an amazing deal. If not, cut him...we only committed to a $550k sallary. Andujar MAY become a star, but I would emphasize the MAY. His natural position is DH.

 I think you're arguing with someone else. I'm not the one slamming the Tulo signing. 

I was against the Mets trading for him in 2013. 

Phillies sign David Robertson for two years.  That is not good for the rest of the NL East.  The guy is superb, and I wish the Red Sox could have snagged him.

Robertson ditched his agent and represented himself this time around, and it sounds like he really enjoyed it.  He said that the Phillies checked all his personal boxes--starting with $23MM over two years, of course.  But he also liked the stadium, their commitment on spending to win now, and their support of charity (neat that this was a prominent item for him).

Here is an interesting analysis of the Machado situation--and as a bonus, you get to recall the once great Sixto Lezcano and Zoilo Versalles!

By Matt Kelly, a reporter for MLB.com based in New York.

There's a reason why Manny Machado's free agency is one of the most anticipated in recent memory. Few players in the world are as skilled defensively as Machado at both shortstop and third base -- two of the most difficult positions on the diamond. At the plate, no hitter has put more hard-hit balls in play (a skill in which Machado is still improving), and only 21 players have matched his 128 league-adjusted wRC+ over the past four seasons. And oh, by the way, Machado is just now entering his age-26 season.

That's all the ingredients of an in-his-prime, top-of-the-line superstar, and it makes sense that Machado is seeking a contract that could top Alex Rodriguez's industry benchmark of 10 years and $275 million -- and perhaps Giancarlo Stanton's $325 million extension with the Marlins, too. It's an incredibly hefty investment that has already winnowed Machado's market, by all accounts, to just three competing clubs, and the front offices of the Phillies, White Sox and Yankees are likely all doing their best to project whether Machado's future performance will line up with his contract request.

While there's probably not a dead ringer for Machado in baseball history, MLB.com's senior data architect Tom Tango ran through the superstar's numbers thus far and attempted to find comparable players through this stage of Machado's career. For this exercise, Tango looked at players who lined up with Machado at age 26 in both their wins above replacement (WAR) progression over their prior four years (so in this case, five-plus WAR in their most recent season, nine-plus WAR over their two most recent seasons, 12-plus WAR over their last three seasons and 14-plus WAR over their last four seasons) and a weighted WAR close to Machado's 5.2 total in 2018. That process revealed the following list of 15 players, including some names you might have guessed, and some you might not:

Carlos Beltran; Eric Chavez; Rocky Colavito; Marquis Grissom; Barry Larkin; Sixto Lezcano; John Mayberry; Raul Mondesi; Manny Ramirez; Scott Rolen; Zoilo Versalles; Billy Williams; Matt Williams; Dave Winfield; Jim Wynn

It's a list that includes three Hall of Famers, and three more who could conceivably get into the Hall at some point in Beltran, Ramirez and Rolen. But there's also a few examples that Machado hopes to steer clear of, too. So, let's cull three of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the team that ultimately claims Machado for the foreseeable future.

Best-case scenarios

Manny Ramirez Ramirez, like Machado, was already a terrific hitter through the first half of his twenties, averaging 30 homers and 102 RBIs over his first three full-time seasons with the Indians. But if Machado elevates to Ramirez's historic level over the ensuing years, his next club is in for a huge windfall. Over the 10 years from Ramirez's age-26 season in 1998 to his last full-time Red Sox campaign in 2007, the slugger saw his OPS fall below .900 just once while ranking in the following slots among his peers with at least 5,000 plate appearances in that span:

HR: 381 (fourth) RBI: 1,232 (second) BA: .316 (fifth) OPS+: 160 (second)

Ramirez's pair of suspensions for performance-enhancing drugs must be mentioned, of course, but it's hard to argue against him being one of the more talented hitters to ever bring a bat to home plate. Machado might not be at that level -- yet -- but Ramirez sure represents a dream result for potential suitors. Plus, Machado is likely to contribute far, far more on the defensive side than Ramirez.

Barry Larkin If Machado -- who was four years younger than Lakin when he broke into the Majors -- can remain excellent into his mid-30s like his closest shortstop comparable, we're going to be talking about a very special career. Larkin helped the Reds win the 1990 World Series at age 26 and only got better from there, boosting his slugging by over 100 points the following year and morphing into the all-around star that captured the '95 National League MVP at age 31. The first six years of Larkin's 30s also included five All-Star selections, three Gold Glove Awards and four Silver Sluggers, with an overall slash line of .301/.397/.480 for a 127 OPS+. Though Larkin dealt with an assortment of injuries over the back half of his career, the Hall of Famer's 5.3 WAR annual average from ages 26-35 is certainly a great target for Machado to shoot for.

Billy Williams Williams didn't see all that much of the national spotlight playing for the woebegone Cubs, but his incredible consistency made him a Hall of Famer. Williams (124 OPS+) was not that far off from Machado (128) as a hitter from ages 23-25, though Machado was a much better defender at a more premium position. But Williams took off over the next five seasons (139 OPS+, 5.3 WAR) and went on to finish runner-up twice in NL MVP voting, including in 1972 when he paced the Senior Circuit in average (.333), slugging (.606) and total bases (348) at age 34.

In fact, Williams compiled the same 139 OPS+ from his age-26-through-29 seasons as he did from ages 30-35. If Machado can stay that consistent over the next decade, that's a scary thought for the rest of the league.

Worst-case scenarios

Zoilo Versalles Versalles put up a career year in his age-25 season, capturing the 1965 AL MVP with league-leading totals in runs, doubles, triples and total bases while helping the Twins claim the pennant. Minnesota rewarded Versalles with a raise, but unfortunately his career immediately took a turn for the worse, beginning with an 83 OPS+ in '66. Versalles kept struggling at the plate from there, which only accentuated his league-leading error totals at shortstop. The Twins traded Versalles to the Dodgers after the '67 campaign, and he was a part-time player by the following year before hanging up his spikes at age 31.

Sixto Lezcano Lezcano broke in early like Machado, and like Versalles he peaked at age 25 when he slashed .321/.414/.573 with 28 home runs and captured his only Gold Glove in right field. But Lezcano struggled to maintain that level over the ensuing years while he was involved in both the Rollie Fingers trade (which sent Lezcano to St. Louis) and the Ozzie Smith trade (which sent him to San Diego). The Puerto Rico native enjoyed a 6-WAR resurgence with the Padres in 1982, but eventually lost his right-field job to Tony Gwynn.

Eric Chavez Chavez was a similar two-way dual threat like Machado at third base, and like our other two worst-case scenarios he was at the peak in his age-26 season, when he posted a 134 OPS+ and claimed his fourth straight Gold Glove. This is really just a case of Machado hoping to avoid Chavez's unfortunate run-in with injuries, as the Oakland star topped 100 games in just one season from age 29 through his retirement at 36. Though Chavez can still boast an accomplished career and plenty of adoration in the Bay Area, that much time off the diamond would be disastrous for the club that could potentially make Machado the richest player in baseball history.

Matt Kelly is a reporter for MLB.com based in New York. Follow him on Twitter at @mattkellyMLB.

Brewers sign Grandal to a one year $18.5MM deal.  Fabulous deal for the Brewskis who get perhaps the best offensive catcher in all of baseball right now.  And on a one year deal.   He plugs into an already formidable lineup that won 96 games and the NL Central last year.  That lineup is almost unchanged, losing only Moustakas as a critical departure.

You may recall the Mets offered Gandal a four year $15MM+ per year deal that he turned down.  To have to take a one year deal is a come down for Grandal, although it gives him a strong incentive to have a really good year now.  The Brewers give up a middling draft pick to the Dodgers as compensation, and next year Grandal is a FA with no compensatory draft picks to hamper his market.

mfpark said:
Brewers sign Grandal to a one year $18.5MM deal.  Fabulous deal for the Brewskis who get perhaps the best offensive catcher in all of baseball right now.  And on a one year deal.   He plugs into an already formidable lineup that won 96 games and the NL Central last year.  That lineup is almost unchanged, losing only Moustakas as a critical departure.
You may recall the Mets offered Gandal a four year $15MM+ per year deal that he turned down.  To have to take a one year deal is a come down for Grandal, although it gives him a strong incentive to have a really good year now.  The Brewers give up a middling draft pick to the Dodgers as compensation, and next year Grandal is a FA with no compensatory draft picks to hamper his market.

I'm SO glad the Mets didn't sign Grandal.  The team is supposed to be built around pitching, and Grandal is at a Gary Sanchez level with PBs.  If you're Syndergaard, would you be able to throw your 90MPH slider with confidence to Grandal with a runner on 3rd?

the only active C on par with Grandal for PBs are Jason Castro and Josh Thole, who spent much of his career as R.A. Dickey's personal knuckleball catcher.  Most other Cs had to play twice as many seasons to match or surpass Grandal.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/PB_active.shtml

That said, his presence didn't seem to hurt the LA pitching staff too much.  But I also think the LA fans are less brutal than Mets fans.  Can you imagine what Citi Field would sound like if Grandal did this with the blue & orange:

Yasmani Grandal makes 2 errors, 2 PBs

I am very happy with Ramos, but would have been pretty happy with Grandal.  But not for four years.

mfpark said:
I am very happy with Ramos, but would have been pretty happy with Grandal.  But not for four years.

 Agreed.  A four year deal for a catcher sounds like a disaster in waiting.

FilmCarp said:

mfpark said:
I am very happy with Ramos, but would have been pretty happy with Grandal.  But not for four years.

 Agreed.  A four year deal for a catcher sounds like a disaster in waiting.

I'm going to keep a running tally on his PBs for the next four years.  Over/under is 30.

There won't be any runners on third base against Sydergaard this season. None. Nada. Zip.

(Someone please share my positivity with the keeper of that other notable baseball thread. I could use the good will, if not outright credit.    )

ml1 said:

FilmCarp said:

mfpark said:
I am very happy with Ramos, but would have been pretty happy with Grandal.  But not for four years.

 Agreed.  A four year deal for a catcher sounds like a disaster in waiting.

I'm going to keep a running tally on his PBs for the next four years.  Over/under is 30.

 By the third year he will be a first baseman or DH somewhere.

Yanks signing LeMahiue is a smart deal.  He can play third, second, and first.  If they want they can now trade Bird and keep Voit at first with LeMahiue as a backup.

Is everyone else as bored as I am with the Harper-Machado circus?

When first considering two 26 year old superstars hitting the market, it seemed really fun to wonder where they would land and how they would impact their new team.

But now it has dragged on so long that all I can think about are their negatives.  So, go ahead Philadelphia, overspend for Harper and watch his production drop and drop as it has the last few years.  And go ahead Chisox and lock down a head case for eight years while your payroll balloons and you still don't have a winning team.

Pheh.

I can't help but think Machado and Harper are just not getting the best advice from their agents.  

Cashman was never a fan of long term contracts.   It was one of  the reasons Cano went elsewhere.  And 10 year contracts rarely if ever have worked out for the team.  I was surprised they took on Stanton's contract and while way too early to see how  that works out, the first year was not a good sign.  Plus the Yankees will have to deal with signing Judge to a contract and I am sure that they will not want to give him a 10 year deal.

I think that neither guy will get the contract he wants.  Fewer years or less money or both, but the suitors are rapidly disappearing.

mfpark said:
Is everyone else as bored as I am with the Harper-Machado circus?

 No.

I don't think it's a "circus" at all.  There's not much happening, but in the age of ubiquitous media, an awful lot of people are writing and talking about it, even though there's nothing to report.

So in that sense, yes I'm bored with it.  But not because it's a circus.  Because it isn't.

the economics of baseball have changed.  whoever signs these guys is almost assured or ruining their teams for years.