It's Time Again for the Hot Stove League!

McCutcheon signed by Phillies for three years at $50MM, plus a fourth option year (I think a team option, not player--no word on buy out cost).  On the surface it seems like a lot of money and term for a 32 year old whose base running--long a major part of his game--has tanked the last two years.  But he still can hit dingers--probably a lock for 20-25 for the next year or two.  And he has a good enough OBP to bat leadoff for both the Giants and Yankees last year.

The signing does allow them to move Hoskins to first base where his atrocious glove will not hurt them as much.  

The big question is whether this takes the Phillies out of the Harper sweepstakes?  I don't think so.  They can have Harper at one corner, and McCutcheon at the other (in a semi-platoon to save his legs), and trade three or four of their other outfielders who are on the roster or MLB ready.  The signing does lessen the hurt of losing out on Harper and is a signal to Boras that the Phillies will not wait for him to drag out the Harper circus into February or March.

Are  the Red Sox messing with everyone's heads by saying they are open to talks on Porcello, Boegarts, and Bradley, Jr.?  First they let that leak into the media, and then Dombrowski says it ain't so.

I think Dombrowski is serious about it, and he is preparing the fan base to be ready in advance.  Porcello is in his last year (at $21MM).  Boegarts is in his last year of arbitration.  In 2020 he is facing Sale and JD hitting FA and someone has to figure out what to do with Betts, arguably the second best player in MLB right now.  Betts is arbitration eligible for 2019 and 2020, then hits FA.

Signing Eovaldi and Price makes it more feasible to trade Porcello now for some value, although I love the guy's combative make-up.  Boegarts has gotten better with the glove, is up and down with the bat, has a weak arm, but in general is a solid player who still can be replaced without too much loss of productivity.  Bradley, Jr is a super contributor with his glove and his attitude, but not so much with the bat--which means he also may not bring much back in trade value.

Dombrowski says that he is not managing to the luxury cap, but he may be managing towards 2020 and 2021 when he will try to perhaps re-sign Sale and/or JD, and certainly Mookie.

mfpark said:
McCutcheon signed by Phillies for three years at $50MM ... 

Perfect post.

ETA: Whoops, almost. McCutchen. Noted only because I need the reminder myself.

This is happy news. When I lived away from the Philadelphia area after college, a colleague and I would read Jayson’s Sunday column on the news wire every weekend, laughing and marveling over the quirks and arcana he brought to light. I was lucky enough to copy-edit his column every now and then back in Philly before he left for ESPN, and he was as genial in person as he was on the page. Well deserved.

Jayson Stark Wins 2018 Spink Award

Looks like JA Happ will be back in pinstripes.  The Yankees apparently were the first (and perhaps only) team to go for three guaranteed years.

P.S.  I don't believe a word Cashman says about Harper.  I bet he would wet himself to have a murderer's row of Judge-Stanton-Harper-Sanchez.  That would be a lineup to rival the original from 1927.

My expectation: Harper and Machado will use the Phillies’ deep pockets and interest to up the offers from other teams, then sign where they’ve already decided they want to go even if the Phillies offer is higher.

There's talk that the Mets can get Realmuto by offering Rosario and probably someone else. They really want Rosario. I bet they'll get him without giving up Thor. Andres Gimenez is highly regarded and may get a chance to stick with the club if they trade Rosario.

It's pitchers' day!

Familia re-signs with the Mets and slots as the set-up man for Dias.  Guess Familia really likes Queens because I bet he could have gotten a closer deal elsewhere.  Good signing for Mets fans as the back of the bullpen is now pretty solid.

The Rays signed Morton to a two year deal for $30MM.  Big money for the Rays, although middle of the road money for starters these days in general.  Morton is older, so a 2 year deal makes sense, and he has seemed to do better with age.  Suddenly the Rays have three real starters, meaning they will go to the "opener" followed by a committee only two times each rotation this year.  With the bevvy of young players who did really well in the field last year and now with three solid starters, the Rays may be a challenge to the Yankees and Red Sox if those teams experience injuries or the flame out of some of their stars.

The Yankees reached a final deal with Happ, and now have a damned solid starting rotation assuming they all stay healthy.

The Dodgers signed Joe Kelly as their set up man.  Kelly has been uneven last few years, but he was solid down the stretch in 2018 for the Red Sox and he is a proven winner.  He also eats up innings.  As a Sox fan, I am sorry to see him go.

The Rangers are close to a three year deal with Lance Lynn, which seems about two years more than he is worth.  He stunk it up with Minnesota last year, but did okay with his late-season rental for the Yankees so perhaps that impressed Texas.  Still, his stats have been sinking every year since his Cardinals days and I just do not see three years for his 31 year old arm.

Finally, the Nats traded Tanner Roarke to the Reds for reliever Tanner Rainey.  Kind of a "meh" deal for both teams.  Roarke will give the Reds innings, but he is a back of the rotation guy now and the Reds need front line starters.  Meanwhile Rainey throws hard--over 100 much of the time--but that does not work unless the ball has movement, and his fastball comes in straight--when it is near the plate.  He has given up lots of gopher balls per inning and lots of walks, although getting out of the tiny Reds' stadium might help keep the homers down.  And he really has no MLB experience so there may be upside.  If the Nats coaches can get him to harness the fastball and move it around, he might turn out to be a good acquisition.

I can only imagine what Jayson Stark would have done with a trade of two Tanners.

I think Familia is a bad signing.  Too much money for a set up man who only does well under some pressure.  And not too much pressure.  The pressure has to be just right.

I used to think Gerry DiPoto was a madman who made deals for the sake of making deals.  And at first blush I thought that again today.  Trading the recently-acquired Carlos Santana for Edwin Encarnacion?  Why even bother?  Both are sluggers who are on the downside of their careers and pretty damned expensive.

But when I look closer at the deal, it makes baseball and financial sense.  It is instructive of how deals need to be made when you are stuck with aging thumpers with big contracts and want to position yourself for future years.

Santana is owed $35MM through 2020; Encarnacion is owed $24MM for 2019.  So while Encarnacion is more expensive for one year, it is only one year.   The Mariners are sending $6M to Cleveland over two years but also get a Cleveland compensatory draft pick that could be reasonably high (right now about #77).  

Meanwhile, the Rays are in the deal as well, sending $5MM to Seattle and Jake Bauers to the Indians, and getting back from the Indians a nifty young corner infielder, Yandy Diaz, and a young arm, Cole Solser.

All this maneuvering makes sense for all three clubs.  The Mariners get a reasonably potent Encarnacion (likely DH, some 1B) for only one more year, freeing up a lot of cash for 2020, which is their goal (same reason they dumped Cano on the Mets, using Diaz as the incentive).  The $6MM to Cleveland to get them to take the two years on a rapidly declining Santana is offset by $5MM from the Rays--net $1MM cash from the Mariners (plus the $7MM higher pay for Encarnacion this year).  And you can bet that Encarnacion might be on the move again, as was the recently acquired Santana.  And they get a high draft pick.

Cleveland gets Bauers, a relatively highly rated Rays prospect who can play 1st, DH, and OF.  They have a log jam at first now, along with Alonso, who is cheap and controllable, so they likely will be trading Bauers or Alonso to create more value.  And they free up about $7MM payroll for 2019 to be able to sign some middle relievers that they need.

The Rays lose Bauers, but obviously they had come to see him as expendable given his low OBS last year.  They pick up the highly regarded Diaz, which plays into their strategy of stockpiling young talent.  They have only one first baseman on their active roster (Choi) so expect them to use their deep prospect pool to trade for one, or sign a mid-priced FA later this winter.

Cleveland sends Yonder Alonso to the Chisox for a mediocre minor league outfielder.  Alonso was their primary first baseman last year, but the Tribe picked up Sanatana and Bauers in trades last week so someone had to go.  Dumping Alonso was a salary move, saving $8MM.  They got almost nothing in return, and have lost much of their 2018 power to free agency and trades.

From the Chisox perspective it gives them some protection if Abreu is injured again.  Oh, right, and Alonso is Manny Machado's brother-in-law.  

Matt Harvey signs with the angels.  One year, 11 million.  I wish him the best.

FilmCarp said:
Matt Harvey signs with the angels.  One year, 11 million.  I wish him the best.

 wow. That's like Netflix money

ml1 said:

FilmCarp said:
Matt Harvey signs with the angels.  One year, 11 million.  I wish him the best.

 wow. That's like Netflix money

 I would have expected 4 or 5 million, but I'm happy for him.  He had his screw ups, but he blew past that 180 inning limit and helped the Mets get to the series.  People seem to forget that.

FilmCarp said:
Matt Harvey signs with the angels.  One year, 11 million.  I wish him the best.

 Solid signing for Angels and for Harvey.  The Angels need starters badly given that they lost their top three last year to Tommy John surgery and were not able to sign either Happ or Corbin.  Harvey needs to show that his second half with the Reds was indicative of a continuing strengthening of his arm.  The one year deal gets both to where they need to be right now.  And he is "cheap" enough that the Angels still have budget room for another higher-priced starter.

Meanwhile, Manny Machado is doing his best to imitate the Amazon HQ2 success story.  He had glitzy fashion shows in Chicago and Philadelphia to try to drive up the price of where he really wants to land, New York.  I wonder if Cashman will be smarter than "Amazon" Cuomo and "Can't Wait Until My Term Is Over" diBlasio?

By all accounts, Harvey truly was a jerk and disliked by most if not all of his teammates.  I hope he fails.  

Andrew Miller about to sign with the Cardinals.  If he stays healthy he is one of the best relievers in baseball.  Last year he was injured much of the year, and his numbers suffered.  But if he is healthy and returns to form he will be a huge addition to their bullpen--and not just against lefties.  

Miller signing means Zach Britton is the last lefty relief specialist on the market, so his stock just shot up.

The Mets are still in the chase for David Robertson, but he may wind up with the Red Sox instead.  Another aging but seemingly limitless arm, he is not Kimbrel, but he is also a lot cheaper.  

Kimbrel may have overreached in seeking a six year deal at his age.  He will be 31 this season and it seems like the best he will get is four years with an option.  

Daniel Murphy signs with the Rockies, who now have a really scary lineup.  Their top four will go Blackmon, Story, Arenado, Murphy with 81 games in thin atmosphere.  Yikes!

But they want to play him at first base, so he'd better hit enough to offset the extra baserunners.

FilmCarp said:
But they want to play him at first base, so he'd better hit enough to offset the extra baserunners.

 Ha, better at first than at second given his bad wheels.  He would be best as a DH, but he seems to like the NL.

I think the Cincinnati/LA deal is good for both teams.  Harper is bound to end up in LA now.

FilmCarp said:
I think the Cincinnati/LA deal is good for both teams.  Harper is bound to end up in LA now.

 Agreed.  Cincy just got a whole lot better too...or improved for 2020 with midyear deals.  

jeffl said:

FilmCarp said:
I think the Cincinnati/LA deal is good for both teams.  Harper is bound to end up in LA now.

 Agreed.  Cincy just got a whole lot better too...or improved for 2020 with midyear deals.  

 Yup, a good deal for both teams.  Wood is a quality arm, albeit in his last year of arbitration.  Puig is a lunatic, but a fine fielder and pretty good hitter, although also in his last year of arbitration.  Kemp has one more year to go and then his massive contract is over.  But as he showed early last year, he still provides a strong bat at times.  So the Reds got a whole lot better for one more year at a slightly higher payroll overall.

Meanwhile the Dodgers cleared out a ton of cap room and picked up two highly regarded, if very young, prospects.  Homer Bailey is going to be cut loose and LA will eat the rest of his contract, but they can absorb that. 

Does this mean that Harper will definitely wind up in LA?  They certainly have cap room and two corner outfield positions open, a great manager, and a prime market in which to live and play.  The Dodgers certainly are in a position now to give the Yankees and Phillies and White Sox a run for their money--and it will all come down to money, after all.

Cap room?

Train_of_Thought said:
Cap room?

room under the luxury tax threshold?

Even with that, LA doesn't have enough space to sign Harper to the deal he'd want and avoid the tax. 

The Cubbies are supposedly in on the Harper sweepstakes but my money is still on the Dodgers.  

If it is pure dollars versus luxury tax, of the teams said to be chasing Harper the White Sox are in great position.  They have the 28th ranked qualifying payroll ($35.5MM).  For comparison, the Phillies are the 17th ranked ($82.7MM) and still below the MLB average ($88.55MM); the Dodgers are ranked 4th ($148.29MM); the Cubs 2nd ($168.54MM).  

Of course, as the Red Sox (#1 at $169.11MM) have shown recently, and the Yankees in the recent past, some teams do not care much about the luxury tax.

Twins sign Nelson Cruz to a one year deal.  What a great signing for them, and a nice landing for Cruz where he teams up with his old GM from the Rangers days.

Cruz joins the newly acquired C.J. Cron and returning Miguel Sano to provide a lot of right handed pop in the middle of the lineup.  With Mauer recently retired and Morrison allowed to walk, the Twins had a need for more power and a DH, and they had payroll room to sign both Cruz and Cron.  Cron was picked up on waivers, is eligible for arbitration in 2020, and becomes a Free Agent in 2021.  Sano is arbitration eligible with his first FA year being 2022.

Yes, Cruz is relatively old at 38, but he has been darned consistent over the last six years and hardly seems to be slowing down with his bat (his running is another thing).  DH is the perfect place to put him.

The Twins still have budget room to sign pitching, which they need.  If they can snag some decent middle of the rotation pitchers they could be a decent team in 2019.