It's Time Again for the Hot Stove League!
Reports are the Phillies are actively chasing Arrieta. Do they really have financial room for a Darvish-sized contract? DaveSchmidt, are you feeling the love about now?
The Phillies have loads of financial room. It’s just a matter of deciding where — and when — to spend. They’ll need another starter or two regardless by next year, when, it’s hoped, contention becomes more of a reality. The Phils have been listed among Arrieta’s suitors for a while — if they were any more open to a Darvish-size contract than I am, a deal would’ve been done by now. If it does happen, I don’t foresee it rivaling Darvish’s. But what do I know.
I think the IP decline of Arrieta over the past couple of years might be a troubling sign for interested teams. I'd be wary of giving him a deal longer than 2 years with a team option. And I don't think he'd sign for that unless he got desperate.
I agree that something is up with Arrieta. From his dramatic turnaround from being a meh Oriole to a superstar for two years in Chicago, to his returning to a slightly above replacement-level pitcher last year, something is up. As ml1 notes, his IP has declined, while his ERA has increased and his ERA+ (adjusted for ballparks) went up a lot. He increasingly looks like someone who had two or three really superior years who is returning back to his more normal level of performance as a fourth or fifth starter.
I have to wonder why a team like the Cubs, with plenty of money to spend, wouldn't try to keep one of their own guys who was a main reason they won the world championship just over a year ago. To me, that is a big red flag.
Who was it who said this is an all-Mets all-the-time thread? Oh, a Yankee fan, right.
Well, it is Yankee time again. They just made an interesting trade--an untested prospect for a replacement-level MLB infielder. Even more interesting is that the whole thing became available because the Red Sox signed J.D. Martinez.
First, the Yankees side of the equation. They got Brandon Drury from the Diamondbacks to cover third base (or perhaps second base) until either of the rookies (Torres and Andujar) are MLB-ready. Drury is pretty much a replacement-level third baseman who mostly played second base last year but is said to be more suited for third base. Depending on how Torres and Andujar play in spring training, the Yankees have some freedom to keep one or both in the high-minors for more seasoning. Drury has a bit of pop in his bat, is an average fielder, and comes cheap--about $565k with lots of years of control left.
The Yankees traded second base prospect Nick Solak who is no great loss. He is a minor league contact hitter with hands of stone and no real MLB position. So from the Yankees perspective, a minor deal but a useful one in the short-run.
This would be a minor ho-hum event except for the larger context. As soon as the Red Sox signed Martinez, the Diamondbacks, who had been chasing Martinez really hard, felt the need to add more power to their line-up. Knowing that Tampa Bay was in mini-fire-sale mode (what is it with Florida teams?), Arizona went all in on Steven Souza, a young outfielder who had a break out year last year (30 HRs, 0.810 OPS, but pretty crappy BA and RBI totals for all that). Souza is relatively cheap ($3.55M) with first arbitration year in 2019 and first FA year 2021. Tampa Bay got a highly rated first year pitcher in return, but after having dumped so many higher priced but quality players recently (such as Logoria) the fans in Tampa Bay should be kind of outraged at this dump.
And now the Red Sox signing of Martinez. Another really good move in the AL East this off-season that improves the Red Sox line up immensely. Martinez will be the primary DH and occasional corner outfielder. He brings some mammoth power stats (in the realm of Harper and Trout in recent years) and at 30 years old should still have a few good years left in his bat. The Red Sox already have one of the best fielding outfields in the majors, so there is little likelihood for Martinez to have to work the Green Monster or roam the large right field in Fenway. Which is a good thing.
One downside is that Martinez has not hit for power in Fenway, although he has only played 7 games there in his career and carries a 1.001 OPS in the park.
The signing means the Sox will be eating the Hanley Ramirez contract for at least another year ($22.750MM including amortized bonus). Ramirez has a $22MM option in 2019 that vests if he achieves 1,050 plate appearances in 2017-2018. He had 553 PAs in 2017. There is no way in hell he gets another 500 PAs in 2018 unless something drastic happens to Martinez--and even then the Sox would more likely use someone else at DH to avoid that vesting option. Nope, Ramirez becomes Moreland's sometimes backup and platoon at 1st, Martinez's sometimes DH backup, and the first bat off the bench.
mfpark said:
Who was it who said this is an all-Mets all-the-time thread? Oh, a Yankee fan, right.
Well, it is Yankee time again. They just made an interesting trade--an untested prospect for a replacement-level MLB infielder. Even more interesting is that the whole thing became available because the Red Sox signed J.D. Martinez.
First, the Yankees side of the equation. They got Brandon Drury from the Diamondbacks to cover third base (or perhaps second base) until either of the rookies (Torres and Andujar) are MLB-ready. Drury is pretty much a replacement-level third baseman who mostly played second base last year but is said to be more suited for third base. Depending on how Torres and Andujar play in spring training, the Yankees have some freedom to keep one or both in the high-minors for more seasoning. Drury has a bit of pop in his bat, is an average fielder, and comes cheap--about $565k with lots of years of control left.
The Yankees traded second base prospect Nick Solak who is no great loss. He is a minor league contact hitter with hands of stone and no real MLB position. So from the Yankees perspective, a minor deal but a useful one in the short-run.
This would be a minor ho-hum event except for the larger context. As soon as the Red Sox signed Martinez, the Diamondbacks, who had been chasing Martinez really hard, felt the need to add more power to their line-up. Knowing that Tampa Bay was in mini-fire-sale mode (what is it with Florida teams?), Arizona went all in on Steven Souza, a young outfielder who had a break out year last year (30 HRs, 0.810 OPS, but pretty crappy BA and RBI totals for all that). Souza is relatively cheap ($3.55M) with first arbitration year in 2019 and first FA year 2021. Tampa Bay got a highly rated first year pitcher in return, but after having dumped so many higher priced but quality players recently (such as Logoria) the fans in Tampa Bay should be kind of outraged at this dump.
Thank you ! A very good, safe deal that gives the Yanks some flexibility with the kids, without insulting them. Another starter would still be nice, from inside or out. Let's see how the spring goes with the young arms.
In continuing ripples from the JD Martinez signing, the Rays signed Carlos Gomez to a one year $4MM contract to replace Souza in the outfield.
A lot of fascinating issues here. First, Gomez is a Boras client and was looking for something around two to three years at $11MM per year. To settle for $4MM and one year is a real come down from his expectations. Second, Gomez had a mediocre year with Texas last year, and a lousy stint with Houston the year before. It is looking more and more like MLB teams are not going for the drug of aging and slowing power hitters as FAs later in their career, and this is going to be good for baseball fans. We will get to see more young, exciting, and hungry players earlier than before. Third, the Rays are not the Marlins. This is not a total fire sale, but there appears to be some strategy involved in recasting the team over a few seasons. Adding Cron is another part of this picture (solid hitter, young and controllable). Fourth, the Rays did need to do something because the Souza deal on top of other offseason moves scared a lot of season ticket holders. A one year deal is a perfect solution.
Much as I hate to admit it, I miss a lot of things in life. One big one was that the Rays DFA'ed Corey Dickerson this week. I take back all the good things I said about the Rays above. The move was prompted by the acquiring of Cron to play first base and they needed to make roster room.
But ditching Dickerson? That is nuts. The guy is young, controllable, a first year All-Star in 2017, and a really good hitter. How about comparing him to, say, Eric Hosmer (he of the recent 8 year $144MM deal) since 2014?
Corey Dickerson: .282/.326/.509/.835, 85 HR, 121 OPS+
Eric Hosmer: .289/.350/.449/.799, 77 HR, 115 OPS+
I stole that analysis above from a Pirates fan page, because the Pirates just lived up to their name and robbed the Rays by trading Daniel Hudson (middle reliever, 71 games last year, no saves) and an A- league player for Dickerson. Holy crap! The Pirates just traded expendable parts for a guy who is even better on paper than Hosmer. At $5.95M this year and one more year of arbitration ahead (FA in 2020), this is a great deal for the Pirates.
Pittsburgh fans are thrilled, and Rays fans have to wonder who is running the ship.
Amazing how this off season has dragged into the on season.
Logan Morrison finally signs a FA deal with the Twins. Not a bad deal for either side, and clearly indicative of the new market (and more rational market, it appears). Morrison is coming off of a 38 HR year, but he only had 85 RBIs for all that.. And his strikeouts almost doubled over his typical season.
Still, he had a 0.868 OPS and a career high for walks. He changed his swing to have more uppercut, which certainly increased his power numbers. Hard to see where he fits in the lineup. Mauer is a fixture at first base, and Morrison has not played a lot of outfield. He can be a DH against righties, which may be where he lands most of the time.
He signed a one year deal for $5.5MM, with options to vest in year 2 at $8.0MM with a $1MM buyout. He gets that second year if he has 600 plate appearances, which is something he has only achieved once in his 8 year career (last year at 601). So, the Twins get a one year okay hitter for the lower half of the lineup who has done well in his few games at Target Field.
Ok, this is fascinating regarding the JD Martinez contract with the Red Sox, and also might explain some of why his market was so soft.
Seems Martinez had some foot injury problems (mid foot, called Lisfranc injury--love Google). So the Sox have some protection in the contract if Martinez misses a certain amount of days due to this specific injury in years 4 and 5 of the contract.
And it turns out Martinez has opt-outs after years 2, 3, and 4 of the contract.
Some currently unsigned Free Agents:
Arrieta
Moustakas
Lynn
Cobb
Lukroy
Holland
Jay
Walker
Gonzalez
And a raft of Triple A caliber players.
Quite a list. Meanwhile the MLBPA is suing some clubs for not spending their money wisely--on veteran players, which in the MLBPA's estimation is the wise thing to do. But clubs are more and more following the Astro's model of eschewing expensive long-term veteran contracts and building with young players.
The Player-Owner agreement does not say that revenue sharing must be spent on high priced and aging free agents. It can be spent on international academies, scouting staff, analytical models, training facilities, minor league development, etc. So while the Agreement does give the union standing in a suit over revenue sharing, I have a hard time seeing the union prevailing in a claim to force clubs to sign aging free agents to long term contracts. Unless there is hard evidence of gross collusion, as there was in 1985.
My guess is some of the guys on this list will get picked up soon for one year deals, perhaps with achievable second year options (most likely Walker, Gonzalez, Lynn, and Arrieta). Some will not be signed until an injury forces a club's hand.
although it might not make sense for any individual team to sign one of these free agents, the aggregate result of the inaction around free agents is a dangerous game for MLB owners IMHO. No one has ever accused MLB owners of being strategic and/or forward thinking, and this is one instance in which they are apparently feeling confident because the CBA just went into effect and runs through 2021. They are taking advantage of their leverage now, without thought for what it might mean for negotiations for the next CBA.
But it's obvious the players got taken in the current CBA. Teams have players under control throughout most players' prime years. They also have the right to leave a guy in the minors for a month or so and put off his free agency for an additional year. The current CBA is suppressing these guys salaries by tens of millions of dollars over the last few years they are under team control.
If this is what the 2019 and 2020 off-seasons look like for MLB FAs, I can't believe there isn't going to be a strike or a lockout when the current CBA ends. And it's likely to be long and ugly unless the owners are prepared to make some concessions around the degree of team control over young players.
Because right now, unless you're a Mike Trout, you're not going to see the market set your compensation during your prime years.
mfpark said:
Some currently unsigned Free Agents:
Arrieta
Moustakas
Lynn
Cobb
Lukroy
Holland
Jay
Walker
Gonzalez
And a raft of Triple A caliber players.
Quite a list. Meanwhile the MLBPA is suing some clubs for not spending their money wisely--on veteran players, which in the MLBPA's estimation is the wise thing to do. But clubs are more and more following the Astro's model of eschewing expensive long-term veteran contracts and building with young players.
The Player-Owner agreement does not say that revenue sharing must be spent on high priced and aging free agents. It can be spent on international academies, scouting staff, analytical models, training facilities, minor league development, etc. So while the Agreement does give the union standing in a suit over revenue sharing, I have a hard time seeing the union prevailing in a claim to force clubs to sign aging free agents to long term contracts. Unless there is hard evidence of gross collusion, as there was in 1985.
My guess is some of the guys on this list will get picked up soon for one year deals, perhaps with achievable second year options (most likely Walker, Gonzalez, Lynn, and Arrieta). Some will not be signed until an injury forces a club's hand.
Perhaps part of the trend of moving away from older FAs, the Cardinals just extended shortstop Paul DeJong for six years--after just one year of MLB experience! DeJong had a super rookie year--25 HRs, .857 OPS--but to lock him up for six years now?
The Cards are no strangers to doing this, having locked in Matt Carpenter, Steven Piscotty, Alan Craig, and Kolten Wang early on in their careers. While Piscotty and Craig bombed out, the others are still solid performers.
When you see this trend along with the older FAs languishing on the market, it seems like the future is to pay more for younger talent early on and then cut them loose once their most productive years are over.
The players association is going to have to rethink their priorities. Right now they let the owners screw the young players assuming that the older guys are going to rake it in. If the older guys are just going to be dropped they are going to have to try to make the kids free agents sooner.
Consider a strike likely next time contract is up. Players are going to require arbitration and free agency much sooner with the none of loopholes that allow time under control to be extended.
mfpark said:
The Phillies may be interested in Arrieta, but not at the six years or more he is seeking.
Reports: Three years, $75 million. That’ll do.
If Arrieta is the pitcher he was in 2015 and 2016, it is a fair deal (not a great deal) for the Phillies. If he is the pitcher he was last year, with declining fastball speed, declining swing and miss ratios, and declining ground ball ratios, it is a very expensive three years for a pitcher past his prime. if he is the pitcher dumped by the Orioles before he **magically** found superstardom in Chicago for two years, then Phillies Phans will regret this for three long years. My guess is more the latter, but I have been very wrong before.
Yanks sign Neil Walker to a smart one year $5MM deal. This gives them yet another veteran to take some pressure off of Torres and Andujar so they can develop on their own pace. If Walker is and can stay healthy he brings good pop to an already powerful batting line up--which has been a big "if" for him the last few years. Still, I like this signing by Cashman. I guess it must be nice to be in the position to easily afford the health risk on a one year deal while having some good young prospects to watch develop.
Carlos Gonzalez is returning to the thin atmosphere of Coors Field on a one year deal. Maybe it will help him end the steep decline since he left Coors.
And Moustakas is returning to Kansas City, a far better signing than Gonzalez. Another one year deal in effect for $6.5MM (i.e., the second year at $15MM has a $1MM buyout--he will not see that second year unless he becomes the second coming, and perhaps not even then).
Both evidence that, at least for now, clubs are holding the line on aging stars and trying to avoid longer term deals.
That is one reason the Arrieta three year deal has me scratching my head in wonder. It does not seem like the Phillies were in hot competition with anyone else. I know the Phillies were desperate for starting arms, but once the Padres signed Hosmer who else was going to make a run for him? At least they let the Rangers sign Lincecum (a one year $1MM deal).
Best signing of the Spring for fans: Ichiro is returning to Seattle!
The Mariners have two projected starting outfielders out with strains that might mean up to two months of inactivity, and Ichiro may get a chance for significant at bats at the start of the season. Hard to believe it has been 17 years since his astonishing "rookie" season in Seattle--Rookie of the Year, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and AL MVP** (along with 242 hits and a 0.350 average).
Here is hoping the hero's welcome he gets inspires his 44 year old body to one more year of glory.
** The other MVP top 10 vote getters, in order: Jason Giambi, Bret Boone, Robbie Alomar, Juan Gone, A-Roid, Thome, Clemens, Manny Ramirez, and Jeter. With Mariano and Tino right behind them.
Actually, I really do not like this deal at all. One is Walker's defense is mediocre at best. Second he does have trouble staying healthy and third, they probably overpaid for him. Nobody else was in a rush to sign him.
Yanks need best defensive players they can get - offense was not a priority.
mfpark said:
Yanks sign Neil Walker to a smart one year $5MM deal. This gives them yet another veteran to take some pressure off of Torres and Andujar so they can develop on their own pace. If Walker is and can stay healthy he brings good pop to an already powerful batting line up--which has been a big "if" for him the last few years. Still, I like this signing by Cashman. I guess it must be nice to be in the position to easily afford the health risk on a one year deal while having some good young prospects to watch develop.
mfpark said:
If Arrieta is the pitcher he was in 2015 and 2016, it is a fair deal (not a great deal) for the Phillies. If he is the pitcher he was last year, with declining fastball speed, declining swing and miss ratios, and declining ground ball ratios, it is a very expensive three years for a pitcher past his prime. if he is the pitcher dumped by the Orioles before he **magically** found superstardom in Chicago for two years, then Phillies Phans will regret this for three long years. My guess is more the latter, but I have been very wrong before.
Phillies brass is well acquainted with Jake, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. Also not sure if those analytics were parsed to distinguish his much better second half of 2017 from the first half.
Lastly, the Phils will have no payroll issues over those three years. In other words, it’s money that won’t prevent future signings or flexibility, so while it never takes much to rile Phillies fans, I don’t foresee much to regret about this deal.
That is why they call them "fans". As in "fantastic" and "fantasy" and "fanatics".
It is all a matter of perspective. Perhaps I would have been happy for the Red Sox to sign him to 3 years/$75MM.
Nah.....
Mikescott: The Yanks will not even notice the $5MM to Walker. If he works out, great. If not, they dump him and move on and sign or trade for a glove later in the season. Lots of cash for Cashman to play with. A totally different way of thinking than all but a handful of clubs.
mfpark said:
That is why they call them "fans". As in "fantastic" and "fantasy" and "fanatics".
It is all a matter of perspective. Perhaps I would have been happy for the Red Sox to sign him to 3 years/$75MM.
Nah.....
Agreed, but even aside from the different state that their rotation is in, the financial situations aren’t really comparable. Committed dollars for 2018, 2019 and 2020:
Red Sox: $229M, $131M, $88M
Phillies: $53M, $42M, $29M
Spending to add a reliable starter to an unproven rotation can be seen in a more forgiving light when the alternative is the team’s simply pocketing the dough.
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I can appreciate your take on this. But if they get anything close to decent pitching they will be an ok team, and as they graduate their younger studs into the lineup they have the potential to be very good by 2020.