It's Time Again for the Hot Stove League!

Been traveling and didn't have a chance to comment on Frazier.  One analysis I read concludes that it's a very good signing for the Mets even if Frazier doesn't improve on any of his hitting stats from last year.  Mainly that's because the collection of players the Mets had at 3B last year was so bad, especially as fielders.  An analysis I read at ESPN.com predicts the Mets to be wild card contenders next year because he projects the team to be at least a dozen games better based mainly on just these handful of factors:

• A full season of Noah Syndergaard
• A near full season of Cespedes
• Major upgrade at 3B

It comes down to this:  if the Mets get anything approaching 30 starts out of Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz and Harvey, they'll probably contend.  Because if they get that many starts out of those guys, it will likely mean they're pitching at lease well enough to keep games competitive.  If Matz and Harvey are injured or dropped from the rotation, it's likely going to be another long year at Citi Field.

In order to be strong contenders, I think the Mets need to land Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as another starter.  Too many pitchers coming off of injuries, too many who might go down on injuries.  It would be money well spent.

I am curious to see if and when Conforto returns and what baseball condition he is in.  And Cespedes needs to stay healthy, at least in the first half of the season until Conforto hits his stride.

mfpark said:

In order to be strong contenders, I think the Mets need to land Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as another starter.  Too many pitchers coming off of injuries, too many who might go down on injuries.  It would be money well spent.

I am curious to see if and when Conforto returns and what baseball condition he is in.  And Cespedes needs to stay healthy, at least in the first half of the season until Conforto hits his stride.

depending on price, I'd be OK with adding a veteran starter.  They could then perhaps move one of their younger starters to the bullpen.  But I'm a little wary of Lynn.  I'm not a Cards fan, so I haven't followed him closely.  But to me he profiles as one of those guys whose success was largely due to pitching for a very good fielding team.  You look at his BABIP last year, and it was among the best in all of MLB -- as good as Max Scherzer.  Which seems weird to me, since it was more than 40 points lower than he recorded in his 15 win season in 2014.  Suggests some combination of luck and good fielding behind him.  And after TJ surgery, he was down to fewer than 6 innings per start on average.  Take out the ERA, and statistically he looks similar to Robert Gsellman (but to be fair, Lynn was healthy all season last year and Gsellman was not).  The big difference might have been that the Cards graded out as the 7th best fielding team in MLB and the Mets were by far the worst (according to defensive runs saved).  That would account for a chunk of the 60 point difference in Lynn and Gsellman's 2017 BABIP results.

Cobb actually might have more upside, but he's never really been a durable 30 starts a year guy.  I'm not sold on either one of them.

mfpark said:

In order to be strong contenders, I think the Mets need to land Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as another starter.  Too many pitchers coming off of injuries, too many who might go down on injuries.  It would be money well spent.

I am curious to see if and when Conforto returns and what baseball condition he is in.  And Cespedes needs to stay healthy, at least in the first half of the season until Conforto hits his stride.

You could have a rotation of prime Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine and Avery and I’m not convinced the lineup you posted in the Mets thread (which I’m not rude enough to disparage there, but this thread gives me a loophole) is contention-worthy even if healthy. But that’s why they play the games.

DaveSchmidt said:

mfpark said:

In order to be strong contenders, I think the Mets need to land Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as another starter.  Too many pitchers coming off of injuries, too many who might go down on injuries.  It would be money well spent.

I am curious to see if and when Conforto returns and what baseball condition he is in.  And Cespedes needs to stay healthy, at least in the first half of the season until Conforto hits his stride.

You could have a rotation of prime Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine and Avery and I’m not convinced the lineup you posted in the Mets thread (which I’m not rude enough to disparage there, but this thread gives me a loophole) is contention-worthy even if healthy. But that’s why they play the games.

This isn't the Mets thread????? Coulda fooled me. Go Yanks ! ! ! ! !

Harumph, you must be a Gianni-come-lately to this thread, since there was a ton of Yankee postings back when they scored the deal of the year by snagging Stanton for Castro.  Other than keeping CC and Tanaka, letting Headley go and not getting Frazier it is otherwise been pretty quiet for the Yankees.  My guess is they are not yet done, as I have a hard time seeing them starting with both Andujar and Torreyes in the infield, but with the power in the rest of the lineup they might get away with it for the start of the year.  The Yanks are stacked, well-balanced, and ready to run for the playoffs right now.

There has been a lot more to whine about with regards to the Mets, but then again they did pretty well with Frazier and even Bruce.  I disagree with the comment above yours that the Mets are not competitive this year, but I do agree that they are on a very thin ledge.  As I noted above, one unsuccessful return from injury or one injury to a key player and the Mets will be very exposed.  This is a team that can make a run at the wild card, but also could end up competing with the Marlins in a race to the bottom.

Dennis_Seelbach said:

DaveSchmidt said:

mfpark said:

In order to be strong contenders, I think the Mets need to land Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as another starter.  Too many pitchers coming off of injuries, too many who might go down on injuries.  It would be money well spent.

I am curious to see if and when Conforto returns and what baseball condition he is in.  And Cespedes needs to stay healthy, at least in the first half of the season until Conforto hits his stride.

You could have a rotation of prime Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine and Avery and I’m not convinced the lineup you posted in the Mets thread (which I’m not rude enough to disparage there, but this thread gives me a loophole) is contention-worthy even if healthy. But that’s why they play the games.

This isn't the Mets thread????? Coulda fooled me. Go Yanks ! ! ! ! !

I think that's the consensus among Mets fans.  There is potential there, but it could all fall apart very easily.  The team was 9th in runs in the NL last year, right in the middle of the pack.  With a full year of Bruce and Cespedes, they should be a little better at scoring than last year.  The Mets scored only 0.2 runs fewer a game than the NL's World Series representative in 2017.  So the notion that it's all about the pitching is pretty much the whole story for the Mets.

mfpark said:

There has been a lot more to whine about with regards to the Mets, but then again they did pretty well with Frazier and even Bruce.  I disagree with the comment above yours that the Mets are not competitive this year, but I do agree that they are on a very thin ledge.  As I noted above, one unsuccessful return from injury or one injury to a key player and the Mets will be very exposed.  This is a team that can make a run at the wild card, but also could end up competing with the Marlins in a race to the bottom.

mfpark said:

Harumph, you must be a Gianni-come-lately to this thread, since there was a ton of Yankee postings back when they scored the deal of the year by snagging Stanton for Castro.  Other than keeping CC and Tanaka, letting Headley go and not getting Frazier it is otherwise been pretty quiet for the Yankees.  My guess is they are not yet done, as I have a hard time seeing them starting with both Andujar and Torreyes in the infield, but with the power in the rest of the lineup they might get away with it for the start of the year.  The Yanks are stacked, well-balanced, and ready to run for the playoffs right now.

There has been a lot more to whine about with regards to the Mets, but then again they did pretty well with Frazier and even Bruce.  I disagree with the comment above yours that the Mets are not competitive this year, but I do agree that they are on a very thin ledge.  As I noted above, one unsuccessful return from injury or one injury to a key player and the Mets will be very exposed.  This is a team that can make a run at the wild card, but also could end up competing with the Marlins in a race to the bottom.

This isn't the Mets thread????? Coulda fooled me. Go Yanks ! ! ! ! !

Harumph, yourself I'll concede you guys made a few (hardly a ton) comments about Stanton, but since then it has been all-Mets, all the time (with minor diversions to the Phils). And that's OK, I was just making a snide comment. I also agree that they could use an "elder statesman" to keep the reins on the kids, as well as fill in at 2nd and 3rd. But until they can find a way out from under the Ellsbury deal, their hands are tied.

I was particularly proud of "Giani-come-lately".

Hey, I'm a long suffering Mets fan but I don't need glasses to see the Yanks got a squad. What's their downside, if any? Do you like their pitching? Their rotation looks solid but with a few question marks. Tanaka could be a little more consistent. He was either really great or maddeningly average. His postseason last year was phenomenal, though. That may carry over into this season. How much does CC have in the tank? Is Severino going to have a monster year? Another dude that was lights out at times. Then you got Montgomery and Gray. Anybody's guess as to how they'll do. Will Chance Adams make it to the majors? What's your take, Dennis?

NotoriousEAM said:

Hey, I'm a long suffering Mets fan but I don't need glasses to see the Yanks got a squad. What's their downside, if any? Do you like their pitching? Their rotation looks solid but with a few question marks. Tanaka could be a little more consistent. He was either really great or maddeningly average. His postseason last year was phenomenal, though. That may carry over into this season. How much does CC have in the tank? Is Severino going to have a monster year? Another dude that was lights out at times. Then you got Montgomery and Gray. Anybody's guess as to how they'll do. Will Chance Adams make it to the majors? What's your take, Dennis?

I'm of fairly conventional wisdom on this year...The Yanks are so loaded, offensively, that it may cover up some clear potential problems. Rotation health is most worrisome, but if everbody is, and stays, healthy, They'll be more than adequate. Tanaka will have his meltdowns, but that's nothing new. He's pretty solid when it's really important. CC seemed to really find his new way of pitching last year, and I expect that to continue, if health permits. Severino has every chance to establish himself as a 1 or 2, but the offense may make it too easy on him, and that could become a focus issue. I have no opinion on Montgomery, Gray or Adams, although I think it safe to assume Adams will certainly get to the show, due to injury. It's gonna be a fun ride...all are welcome on board.

I forgot to mention the issue of 2nd and 3rd base positions. If they go with the rookies, it could be great, or it could be a disaster. Offensively, they are not needed to have big years, but they will have to show some glove. I'd love to see them get a vet swing man to cover, and give these kids an occasional break.

mfpark said:

I disagree with the comment above yours that the Mets are not competitive this year ... 

Now them’s fightin’ words!

The Phils’ new skip is a wilder card than yours, but I’m feeling more upbeat about the chances of finishing ahead of the Metropolitans this year than I have in a long time. Must’ve contracted some kind of infection from the parade I watched online yesterday.

I think the Cubbies are going to like but not love Yu Darvish this year and perhaps even next year, and then rue the deal in years three through six.  He has been solid enough with the Rangers in the past, but looked like he was running out of gas much of last year.  Remember, he has 12 seasons on his arm, seven of which were in Japan where he was around 200 innings pitched per year--over 2,100 innings since 2005.

Not sure why the Cubs were so down on Arrieta.  They barely spoke to him in the offseason.  He has a younger arm and better upside it seems than Darvish.

mfpark said:

Not sure why the Cubs were so down on Arrieta.  They barely spoke to him in the offseason.  He has a younger arm and better upside it seems than Darvish.

It may have more to do with Boras than it does with Arrieta. Before signing Darvish, the Cubs reportedly contacted Arrieta to gauge his interest in a similar deal.

From what I am seeing, it was a perfunctory call and more of a courtesy than anything else.

I hear that Boras has a full spring training facility so his stable of idled players can stay in shape while waiting out spring training.  Some damn fine players there this year.  Wonder if he is going to buy them uniforms and schedule barnstorming games against college teams?

DaveSchmidt said:

mfpark said:

Not sure why the Cubs were so down on Arrieta.  They barely spoke to him in the offseason.  He has a younger arm and better upside it seems than Darvish.

It may have more to do with Boras than it does with Arrieta. Before signing Darvish, the Cubs reportedly contacted Arrieta to gauge his interest in a similar deal.

mfpark said:

From what I am seeing, it was a perfunctory call and more of a courtesy than anything else.

I’m seeing a variety of interpretations. In any case, if Arrieta responds, “Sounds good, let’s talk,” who knows? Just seems to indicate that the Cubs were down not so much on Arrieta himself but on his negotiation posture.

I hear that Boras has a full spring training facility so his stable of idled players can stay in shape while waiting out spring training.  Some damn fine players there this year.  Wonder if he is going to buy them uniforms and schedule barnstorming games against college teams?

Too early. According to Boras, it’s not February. It’s now December.

Full disclosure: I’m inclined to see the bright side of Arrieta, since the Phils appear to be one of the teams in the running for his services.

The Phillies may be interested in Arrieta, but not at the six years or more he is seeking.  Boras is his agent and in the past he has been more than willing to hold his stars out until late in the offseason.  But over the years only two held out until March--Manny Ramirez and Kyle Lhose.  The rest signed in January and February.  This is a different offseason for sure for both players and owners alike.

The Arrieta market is deadened by salary cap worries--not so much this year but for next year when so many top FAs may hit the market.  It is interesting that there are very few published rumors about clubs talking to him right now--typically that stuff is splashed around by someone on either side of the talks.

If Arrieta drops to a four year demand, perhaps with a fifth year option, I can see a number of teams jumping in with the Phillies, including St Louis, Texas, Minnesota, and Milwaukee (the latter two made bids for Darvish and came up short).  There will also be draft pick compensation to be added to the calculus. 

{edited to add} Just read from Buster Olney that a number of teams would do a short term high salary deal with Arrieta, including possibly Washington and all the teams listed above (and we can even add Toronto to that mix, I would think).  Heck, on a short term deal, even the Yanks and Mets could be players.

The top three free agents are all signed with Boras.    if one person could get the owners to band together it is Boras.  if those players do not get signed before the season ends, you might see players start to rethink signing with Boras.   

mfpark said:

I think the Cubbies are going to like but not love Yu Darvish this year and perhaps even next year, and then rue the deal in years three through six.  He has been solid enough with the Rangers in the past, but looked like he was running out of gas much of last year.  Remember, he has 12 seasons on his arm, seven of which were in Japan where he was around 200 innings pitched per year--over 2,100 innings since 2005.

Not sure why the Cubs were so down on Arrieta.  They barely spoke to him in the offseason.  He has a younger arm and better upside it seems than Darvish.

I don't get it either.  Darvish only has two seasons with 30+ starts, although one was last year.  But the Cubs saw Arrieta up close last season, and maybe they know something we don't.  Arrieta is an unusual case.  He was no better than a journeyman for many years, and then suddenly broke out with 3 really good years.  Then he's had a slight falloff from that last year.  He was an anomaly in that he's one of the few pitchers anyone is aware of who found success with a drastic change in his release point long after he'd already been in the big leagues.  Maybe the Cubs think he's going to regress.  Or maybe they just didn't want to deal with Boras.  Who knows?

analysis of Arrieta's transformation:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jake-arrieta-is-not-your-normal-ace/

Exactly, ML1.  Arrieta was a middling pitcher with the Orioles.  Then suddenly in Chicago he found himself, going 4-2 in his first partial year, 10-5 the first full year, and then his superb Cy Young year in 2015 of 22-6, 1.77 ERA, and 3 shutouts.  Even the last two years were pretty darned good given starting pitching in this era (18-8 and 14-10, although his ERA has been increasing each year to 3.53 last year).

So it was surprising that the Cubs would go for an older and less successful (recently) arm in Darvish for a six year deal but spurn Arrieta.  Absolutely feels like they know something the rest of us don't.  Familiarity can breed caution, I guess.  I would have chalked it up to the Boras effect if they had not gone to 6 years and $126MM for Darvish.  I have a hard time thinking that Arrieta and Boras would walk on that kind of offer in this kind of market, even given it is Boras we are talking about.

the only stat in which Darvish looked better than Arrieta last year was K/BB ratio.  Maybe the Cubs front office puts a lot of weight on that stat.  Or maybe these IP stats had them pausing:

• 2015:  229
• 2016:  197
• 2017:  168

That's not a lot of innings in 2017 for a guy who made 30 starts.  So maybe that's the red flag?  Again, I have no idea, just guessing.

What is Boras looking for contract-wise for Arrieta? It seems the Darvish signing will hurt Arrieta. I'm sure Arrieta is thinking "I'm better than this guy and worth more." Do you think a high per annum could lure Arrieta? Perhaps a 3-year, $90m deal? Scherzer signed a 7-year, $210m so averaged out at $30m per year, Arrieta could say to himself "I'm making as much as Scherzer per year." (Of course, Scherzer is way better than Arrieta.) Could these players really sit this one out? 

these guys are hyper-competitive, which is obviously one of the traits that gets them to this level.  So you figure that's probably a big part of why they want these max deals.  Because even after paying agents, managers, and taxes, a $50MM two-year deal leaves these guys set for life if they invest cautiously.  At some point all of them will likely take shorter term deals.  

I'm sure owners might be waiting for next year with the likes of Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Dallas Keuchel, Joe Mauer, Adam Wainwright and Matt Harvey(!) looking for deals.

IMHO, the current FA rules are unfair to the players, especially the rule that allows teams to do things like wait to call up a Cody Bellinger until a month into the season so that he'll be under team control for another year.  Bellinger is under team control until 2024.  That's likely to be most of his prime earning potential seasons.  

MLB's young stars essentially end up under team control throughout their 20s, and then hit the open market when they're nearly 30, and no longer worth a long term deal.  I think the players are wising up to that, and are going to want to cut a couple of years off the time the team controls them.  And I don't think the owners are going to give that up without a fight.

Pitchers and Catchers time.  The Hot Stove League is officially closed.  

Any Scott Boras client signings can be dealt with elsewhere.

See ya' next November!

Oops, it is time for the Boras season to start.  Hosmer for 8 years to the Padres.

Not a bad deal for the Padres, although they were likely bidding against themselves.  8 years gets Hosmer to age 36 (he also has an opt out after year five/age 32).  The deal is heavily front loaded--$5MM signing bonus, $20MM per year the first five years, and then $13MM a year for the rest of the contract.  There is a full no-trade in the first 3 years, and then limited no-trade in the out years.  

From the Padres' perspective, they get a proven and young productive hitter and decent fielder and some control over him after year 3.  Hosmer gets the 8 years he wanted, although at a lower average salary than he had initially sought (hard to feel sorry for him, eh?).  This means Wil Myers will need to shift to a corner outfield position, which hurts their outfield defense a bit.  It also means that the raft of solid young outfielders they now have will be fighting for fewer available at-bats.  Look for the Padres to be active in the trading market soon, if not near the deadline.  

There are downsides to Hosmer.  He has been inconsistent, with good years and meh years interchangeably.  Petco Field is a pitcher's park (as was Kauffman Stadium in KC) so that might limit his output as he ages.  On the other hand, the Padres have one of the better ranked lower minor league rosters, and they have some older players (Headly and Galvis) who roll off contract in a couple of years.  The Padres should be somewhat competitive the next two years, and then start plugging in the new, controllable, fresh stars for 2020 and a run for the World Series.  Hosmer is a good bridge between 2018 and 2020.

Overall, a solid deal for both team and player.

I am afraid I disagree.  The Padres aren't going to win squat for the next two or three years.  They will pay him top dollar to help them lose, and then be stuck with a declining player when they are becoming competitive.  I think the Padres didn't get the memo about long term deals.