Hurricane Matthew

Good luck! I found a live cam in Daytona, 10 minutes from my mom:

http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20161005/watch-conditions-on-live-daytona-beach-webcam

This is really cool. Thank you.

catch22 said:

I think I've posted a link to Windyty before. It's a great way to watch the progression of the storm in a time-lapse mode. Note: It's just a graphical representation of model outputs, so it's only as good as the underlying models. Right now it supports the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM. For Matthew, it shows that all the models are very consistent out to about 36 hours with the storm hugging the Florida east coast. Given that only 50 miles of difference in track will make a difference, it's impossible to say for sure, but it certainly appears that Florida/Georgia/SC are in for a serious event. https://www.windyty.com/?29.238,-78.618,6

How's it going @debby?

Max,

NHC is predicting this storm will perform a cartwheel in the Atlantic.

This seems quite unusual to me but I don't really follow these things.

Can you provide any historic context to this manuever?

Just heard there is another hurricane (Nicole) right behind Matthew.

joan_crystal said:

Just heard there is another hurricane (Nicole) right behind Matthew.

Your access to MOL has been suspended

author said:

joan_crystal said:

Just heard there is another hurricane (Nicole) right behind Matthew.

Your access to MOL has been suspended

Someone posted a meme on Facebook that indicated there were models showing the possibility of the two storms colliding. (But I don't know if it was legit.)

sac said:

author said:

joan_crystal said:

Just heard there is another hurricane (Nicole) right behind Matthew.

Your access to MOL has been suspended

Someone posted a meme on Facebook that indicated there were models showing the possibility of the two storms colliding. (But I don't know if it was legit.)

Your access to Facebook has been suspended

AFAIK, the turn around is very unusual, but it follows logically from the larger systems in play, specifically a ridge of high pressure coming in from the northwest, and Nicole to the southeast. If this happens, Matthew should be very diminished by the second landfall. Not that that will be much solace should effected areas get another few inches of rain, but at least the winds ought to be manageable.

Nicole has been sitting between Bermuda and the Bahamas for several days, although it just became a hurricane this morning. There is close to zero possibility that Nicole will make landfall on the continental US.

While it is theoretically possible that Nicole and Matthew could merge, there is no support from any of the models I would take seriously. There may not be any support from any others, but I don't waste my time looking at models I don't take seriously.

Also note that, after 48 - 56 hours, there is a pretty wide divergence in the modeled track for Matthew, more than the forecast cone is showing. Both the GFS and the Euro show a much weakened Matthew swinging in towards Florida, but the underlying components do not agree as to whether the storm actually makes landfall a second time.

Max, As a Mississippian, I've seen many hurricanes. Never seen one do a U Turn like this is projected to do on Sunday and Monday. Please help us not techies understand why the circle turn?

Best Regards,

Ron Carter

I also have to say I'm not too happy with how this thing is being reported. "Worst Storm" in over 50 years. Well I would sad Katrina and Camille were pretty major storms. I guess they must mean "to be hitting Florida's East Coast."

-Ron

how do you know this won't be worse than Katrina or other storms. It hasn't even hit yet.

rcarter31 said:

Max, As a Mississippian, I've seen many hurricanes. Never seen one do a U Turn like this is projected to do on Sunday and Monday. Please help us not techies understand why the circle turn?

Best Regards,

Ron Carter

Hurricane Nicole is also "scheduled" to do a U turn.

In really simple terms, you just need to understand that large weather systems interact to cause these sorts of movements. There is a large ridge of high pressure forecast to slide in from Canada over the northeast in the upcoming days. This is a "fair weather" system with clockwise circulation characteristic of high pressure. A particularly large and strong high pressure system acts like a wall to block low pressure systems. Hurricanes like Mathew are low pressure systems which, while very intense, are not typically able to "push" a big high pressure system out of the way. Mathew is forecast to run into the high and be "pushed" hard right (east). Without strong steering from another system and with the other large low (Nicole), there is a chance that it will sort of retrograde to the south (toward a general area of low pressure).

While this isn't necessarily common, it's not unheard of. Some tropical storms and hurricanes meander around for weeks without really going anywhere. It all just depends on the macro picture.

A useful, simple rule is that circulation around a high is clockwise and around a low is anti-clockwise in the northern hemisphere. If you know the relative locations of two systems you can logically work out the movement and also the wind fields between them.

I've got lots of pictures in some old textbooks I could copy, but I'm sure googling "circulation around high pressure" will get you off and running.

rcarter31 said:

Max, As a Mississippian, I've seen many hurricanes. Never seen one do a U Turn like this is projected to do on Sunday and Monday. Please help us not techies understand why the circle turn?

Best Regards,

Ron Carter

My relatives in western Broward County called the storm a complete bust. Guessing it stayed offshore that far south.

catch22 said:

In really simple terms, you just need to understand that large weather systems interact to cause these sorts of movements. There is a large ridge of high pressure forecast to slide in from Canada over the northeast in the upcoming days. This is a "fair weather" system with clockwise circulation characteristic of high pressure. A particularly large and strong high pressure system acts like a wall to block low pressure systems. Hurricanes like Mathew are low pressure systems which, while very intense, are not typically able to "push" a big high pressure system out of the way. Mathew is forecast to run into the high and be "pushed" hard right (east). Without strong steering from another system and with the other large low (Nicole), there is a chance that it will sort of retrograde to the south (toward a general area of low pressure).

While this isn't necessarily common, it's not unheard of. Some tropical storms and hurricanes meander around for weeks without really going anywhere. It all just depends on the macro picture.

A useful, simple rule is that circulation around a high is clockwise and around a low is anti-clockwise in the northern hemisphere. If you know the relative locations of two systems you can logically work out the movement and also the wind fields between them.

I've got lots of pictures in some old textbooks I could copy, but I'm sure googling "circulation around high pressure" will get you off and running.

rcarter31 said:

Max, As a Mississippian, I've seen many hurricanes. Never seen one do a U Turn like this is projected to do on Sunday and Monday. Please help us not techies understand why the circle turn?

Best Regards,

Ron Carter

Nicole has actually been sitting out there doing a little circle for almost a week. We notice Matthew because it is effecting the US. Catch 22's explanation of the movement is spot on.

catch 22 and Max, Thanks!

-Ron

Reporting in from Delray Beach:
Matthew shifted a bit and stayed off the coast rather than hitting us here directly. It was a stormy night, but not bad (Sandy in NJ was MUCH worse). Have the hurricane shutters up, and could hear branches hitting throughout the night. Now that the sun is up (still breezy and raining) it looks like no damage in the neighborhood. And the power stayed on throughout (and given that it goes off nearly every time it storms, that's pretty amazing).

Hope points north of here are as lucky!

My mom is in New Smyrna, near Daytona Beach...we haven't heard from her this morning but it sounds like they are taking a pounding. Glad it wasn't that bad further south. My parents stayed in their home, which is about 3 miles inland near Route 95. Send positive vibe please!

sending positive vibes!

Positive vibes for your parents! I think inland by 95 should be ok, but Daytona further east is getting slammed. People are kind of waiting to see what is going to be with Jacksonville.

deborahg - they probably have lost power. I just talked to my mom - she is farther north staying with a friend in Ormond about 3-4 miles inland. I had texted her this morning but she was conserving battery power and didn't get back to me for a couple of hours. No power there but no flooding nor any major damage.

I think the intracoastal breached the mainland in Holly Hill, but it was just the roads nearest the river. I was on the Daytona news-journal website and saw some random reports of trees down across the area - port orange, ormond, etc., but I think by and large the area wasn't hit as badly as it could have been, although they are still going to have winds and rain for the rest of the afternoon. Not sure how well the beachside fared - I don't think the ocean breached A1A which is good news for my mom's house.

Keep us posted. Keeping your mom in my thoughts - I know it's scary not hearing, but I didn't hear from a friend in Deerfield Beach, which barely got glanced by the storm, for hours after I reached out because of power issues.

deborahg said:

My mom is in New Smyrna, near Daytona Beach...we haven't heard from her this morning but it sounds like they are taking a pounding. Glad it wasn't that bad further south. My parents stayed in their home, which is about 3 miles inland near Route 95. Send positive vibe please!

Thank you @kriss! I got a text from her -- some damage to the property (limbs down, mostly) and no power, but the house is fine, no leaks, and they are okay. My stepdad keeps his boats in Holly Hill so I wonder how that will play out. Beachside is probably a mess, the beaches got creamed by Andrew and were really just coming back. Now they are waiting for the storm surge, my mom is inland just east of 95 and she said she was glad she'd just updated her flood insurance!

Glad your mom is okay, too. That's the important stuff.

Happy to report that we did not rebook our flight and flew out at 7:30am Friday morning to Miami. The flight wasn't even that turbulent when we got a bit closer as the pilot predicted.

Sometimes you roll the dice and win Glad we got to spend my husband's birthday on the beach

And my mom in Port St. Lucie was fine also No damage and power came back quick

To those of you who helped me understand the U Turn, What has happened? Doesn't it feel like it has come our way anyways, just really weak?

-Ron

The front caught some of the moisture from Matthew which amped up the rain we were getting from the front, and made it look like one system on the radar and satellite images. Also, Matthew got more firmly captured by both the cold front, which wrapped around it, and the westerlies (trade winds), which ironically are pushing it eastward into a more normal track.

Well for us the additional rain was beneficial.

deborahg said:

Thank you @kriss! I got a text from her -- some damage to the property (limbs down, mostly) and no power, but the house is fine, no leaks, and they are okay. My stepdad keeps his boats in Holly Hill so I wonder how that will play out. Beachside is probably a mess, the beaches got creamed by Andrew and were really just coming back. Now they are waiting for the storm surge, my mom is inland just east of 95 and she said she was glad she'd just updated her flood insurance!

Glad your mom is okay, too. That's the important stuff.

Good to hear! My mom got back to the beachside on Saturday afternoon - her yard (trees, flowers, etc.) and fence were destroyed, and she lost her gutters, soffits and fascia, but other than that, and one cracked window, the house is fine. Still no electricity though.

Hope your folks are faring well.

@jimmurphy - how are your folks in Melbourne?

jimmurphy said:

kriss said:

jimmurphy said:

Just spoke to my Dad who is in Melbourne Beach, FL - midcoast near Cape Canaveral. They plan to leave the island Thursday morning, cross the bridge and go a few miles inland to friends' house. Only 40-50mph winds forecasted, he says. Good plan?

I think so. My mom is farther north, in Ormond Beach, and she is leaving tomorrow morning and staying with a friend on the mainland too. That seems to be the plan of most of the beachside folks.

Ok thanks. Glad to hear they're not being too dismissive. Good luck to your Mom.

kriss said:

@jimmurphy - how are your folks in Melbourne?

jimmurphy said:

kriss said:

jimmurphy said:

Just spoke to my Dad who is in Melbourne Beach, FL - midcoast near Cape Canaveral. They plan to leave the island Thursday morning, cross the bridge and go a few miles inland to friends' house. Only 40-50mph winds forecasted, he says. Good plan?

I think so. My mom is farther north, in Ormond Beach, and she is leaving tomorrow morning and staying with a friend on the mainland too. That seems to be the plan of most of the beachside folks.

Ok thanks. Glad to hear they're not being too dismissive. Good luck to your Mom.

All Good! A few tree limbs down. Power restored and back in the condo on Sunday. Long conversation with Dad on Sunday night and he was in good spirits. He mentioned that fences seemed to be the most damaged. Thanks for asking and I'm glad your family did OK too. Hope the power is back on soon!