Hurricane Matthew

debby said:

Actually, there was one (Maybe Wilma?) that I remember going out in daylight to take a look after the front edge passed, but the trailing edge had not yet arrived.

Perhaps because storms at night are more scary they are more memorable? Since the effects of a major storm can be felt for hours, perhaps it is the overnight that is the most memorable?

FWIW, I don't think Wilma had any effect on NJ at all.

Irene made landfall at 5:30am.

@debby - sending good gas finding vibes your way - so frustratingly

What do you think about flying to NC on Friday?

I wouldn't. If they get hit at all, it'll be Friday/Saturday. Although...if you're going way west, like Ashville, it would be ok.

CORRECTION: NC is looking more like Sunday.

krugle said:

What do you think about flying to NC on Friday?

I found it and waited on line for half an hour this morning. They only had Premium left, of course. When I was filling my gas canister it splashed ALL over me, and I had to go home to change.

doulamomma said:

@debby - sending good gas finding vibes your way - so frustratingly

what kind of weird storm track is this?

For a few days, I was worried about the storm because of concern about getting out of here on a flight (to Peru!) on Saturday. Now that doesn't look like it will be a problem, but our flight may have to take a pretty big detour to avoid the storm.

If your flight is direct to Lima I do not think it will be an issue.

hoops said:

what kind of weird storm track is this?

Weird is what. No one denies it, least of all the NHC.

So odd. I guess good news for most except the Bahamas?

My mom is near Daytona, she says they are bracing for serious weather.

deborahg said:

My mom is near Daytona, she says they are bracing for serious weather.

Yes, my mom is beachside in Ormond (north of Daytona) and she is leaving her house tomorrow to stay with a friend on the mainland. Where's your mom deborahg?

jimmurphy said:

Just spoke to my Dad who is in Melbourne Beach, FL - midcoast near Cape Canaveral. They plan to leave the island Thursday morning, cross the bridge and go a few miles inland to friends' house. Only 40-50mph winds forecasted, he says. Good plan?

I think so. My mom is farther north, in Ormond Beach, and she is leaving tomorrow morning and staying with a friend on the mainland too. That seems to be the plan of most of the beachside folks.

kriss said:

jimmurphy said:

Just spoke to my Dad who is in Melbourne Beach, FL - midcoast near Cape Canaveral. They plan to leave the island Thursday morning, cross the bridge and go a few miles inland to friends' house. Only 40-50mph winds forecasted, he says. Good plan?

I think so. My mom is farther north, in Ormond Beach, and she is leaving tomorrow morning and staying with a friend on the mainland too. That seems to be the plan of most of the beachside folks.

Ok thanks. Glad to hear they're not being too dismissive. Good luck to your Mom.

My mom is in New Smyrna, just east of 95 but mainland. She and my stepdad are battening down the hatches and staying put.

jimmurphy said:

kriss said:

jimmurphy said:

Just spoke to my Dad who is in Melbourne Beach, FL - midcoast near Cape Canaveral. They plan to leave the island Thursday morning, cross the bridge and go a few miles inland to friends' house. Only 40-50mph winds forecasted, he says. Good plan?

I think so. My mom is farther north, in Ormond Beach, and she is leaving tomorrow morning and staying with a friend on the mainland too. That seems to be the plan of most of the beachside folks.

Ok thanks. Glad to hear they're not being too dismissive. Good luck to your Mom.

Same to your family.

Daughter's in Georgetown, west of Savannah, & no evac order yet. She should hi-tail it, yes?

-s.

yes, Soda, she should.

Here's my life

I think I've posted a link to Windyty before. It's a great way to watch the progression of the storm in a time-lapse mode. Note: It's just a graphical representation of model outputs, so it's only as good as the underlying models. Right now it supports the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM. For Matthew, it shows that all the models are very consistent out to about 36 hours with the storm hugging the Florida east coast. Given that only 50 miles of difference in track will make a difference, it's impossible to say for sure, but it certainly appears that Florida/Georgia/SC are in for a serious event. https://www.windyty.com/?29.238,-78.618,6

How does it look for flying from Newark to Ft. Myers Thursday night, 8-11 p.m, and then driving for 45 minutes towards town?

Universal and Disney parks closing early today and remaining closed on Friday. That's big. You can probably count on one hand the number of times they have closed parks down completely.

I hate it when people say that a storm is targeting a particular area as if the storm has some sort of intelligence, but that loop in Matthew's path certainly is diabolical.

re: Savannah, my daughter is at SCAD and they closed all academic buildings as of a Weds thru Sunday. Fortunately she was able to evacuate to a friend's farm house a little South of Atlanta. It wasn't mandatory yet, but I'm happy she and her friends left before traffic got crazy.

Jasmo said:

How does it look for flying from Newark to Ft. Myers Thursday night, 8-11 p.m, and then driving for 45 minutes towards town?

50/50. It depends on how much of a risk taker you are. It is sunny now no wind, two hours north of ft. Myers in Largo. Will the flight take place? If you land at 11pm you have 3hours before the tropical wind storm hits with 30/40 mph in this neck of the woods. Be careful.

In Boca Raton (20 minutes inland) we are just hearing winds start to pick up now.

oneofthegirls said:

Jasmo said:

How does it look for flying from Newark to Ft. Myers Thursday night, 8-11 p.m, and then driving for 45 minutes towards town?

50/50. It depends on how much of a risk taker you are. It is sunny now no wind, two hours north of ft. Myers in Largo. Will the flight take place? If you land at 11pm you have 3hours before the tropical wind storm hits with 30/40 mph in this neck of the woods. Be careful.

Check flights. Many airports are closed in FL as of 5 pm tonight through Saturday am.

debby said:

In Boca Raton (20 minutes inland) we are just hearing winds start to pick up now.

Good luck and Shana Tova!

conandrob240 said:

oneofthegirls said:

Jasmo said:

How does it look for flying from Newark to Ft. Myers Thursday night, 8-11 p.m, and then driving for 45 minutes towards town?

50/50. It depends on how much of a risk taker you are. It is sunny now no wind, two hours north of ft. Myers in Largo. Will the flight take place? If you land at 11pm you have 3hours before the tropical wind storm hits with 30/40 mph in this neck of the woods. Be careful.

Check flights. Many airports are closed in FL as of 5 pm tonight through Saturday am.

Why even go? You risk getting caught and needing assistance which otherwise would help someone else. Just stay away.

Thanks! We are ready.

Shana Tova to you, as well!

cramer said:

debby said:

In Boca Raton (20 minutes inland) we are just hearing winds start to pick up now.

Good luck and Shana Tova!