COVID-19

Unfortunately, I could not load the video as an image instead of a link.  If you like it and would like to give it a try, be my guest.  

https://web.facebook.com/vero.peralta.cortes/videos/10222239672921088/?t=12

from Bob Roe:  The Vitalant blood bank is now doing plasma donations for corona patients for antibodies. You should be able to Google them and make an appointment.  I am not sure if the Red Cross is involved yet,  

cramer said:

"A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.

The study was posted on an online site for researchers and has been submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine, but has not been reviewed by other scientists. Grants from the National Institutes of Health and the University of Virginia paid for the work."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/more-deaths-no-benefit-from-malaria-drug-in-va-virus-study.html

To summarize, you take Trump's "cure" and you're more likely to die.

Social distancing as a tool...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/social-distancing-coronavirus.html

from Bob Roe again:  In today's Star Ledger there is a report that Rutgers University Hospital, Hackensack Meridian and the Red Cross are taking donations and doing studies of Corona convalescent blood plasma.   (Note that I am retired, so I am only posting as any other MOL poster)   

mrincredible said:

By my math the mortality rate of COVID-19 in Maplewood stands at 7.3% I have to assume there are many undiagnosed cases.

Assuming its really 1% then there are seven times as many cases as reported. In which case the chances of being next to an undiagnosed is not trivial when you're outside.

I don't see how mass transit is feasible under that circumstance.

A growing body of evidence suggests the virus is most contagious in people before they develop a fever or even feel a tickle in their throat. That suggests silent spreaders are seeding new cases.

A study published in the journal Nature Medicine last week estimated that people infected with the novel coronavirus are contagious almost two and a half days before symptoms appear — and that peak contagiousness occurs about 17 hours before people start feeling sick.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/reopening-america-states-coronavirus/

mtierney, interesting read about the history of social isolation policy, thanks for posting it.

Question. 

Among people who have hunkered down and diligently followed the social distancing rules, do you know of anyone who has nonetheless contracted the virus?  I know a pretty substantial number of people who have gone through it (a few still have it), but I can't think of anyone who I've been in touch with in recent weeks who was OK for weeks, followed the rules, but somehow got it anyway.

Just wondering.

bub - Do you know how the people you know who have had it contacted it?    

cramer said:

bub - Do you know how the people you know who have had it contacted it?    

 In some cases, it was people (colleagues/fellow professionals) who were commuting into NYC well past the point when they should have been (IMO).  They got it and gave it to family members, girlfriends etc.  A good friend's mother in law got it in her nursing home, which is an obvious hot spot.  She's actually doing OK it seems.  I know a couple of young men, kids of a good friend, who had very fleeting cases (with loss of smell and taste but not much else).  At least one of them lives in NYC so there's that.  I know a NY state elected official who has it.  He must have been out there in public mixing with people. 

I don't want to stigmatize or blame.  It's a disease not a crime.  But everyone I know who took this seriously and could and did lay low early is fine.  No puzzling "head scratchers" about how the list of people I know got it.  I don't have the full stories in each case yet.

The damn thing is so arbitrary.  Of the high teens number of people I know who have/had it, almost all have recovered.   Nobody hospitalized, even among high risk people like my friend's mother in law and an in law of mine with a bad health history (he has suffered pretty badly at home though).

Yet I have another friend who knows at least 3 people who have died ad maybe a 4th.

bub said:

Question. 

Among people who have hunkered down and diligently followed the social distancing rules, do you know of anyone who has nonetheless contracted the virus?  I know a pretty substantial number of people who have gone through it (a few still have it), but I can't think of anyone who I've been in touch with in recent weeks who was OK for weeks, followed the rules, but somehow got it anyway.

Just wondering.

The people I know that had the virus have all mostly recovered by now.  I assume they contracted the virus early on. I don't know of anyone that has contracted the virus recently (in the past few weeks).

A friend is quite sick, though not hospitalized. She cannot imagine where she got it, as her only outing during the prior incubation period was to a grocery store wearing a mask and carrying her own Clorox wipes. Her test came back negative, but her symptoms are textbook, so her doctor is suggesting a second test. She has had a on and off (but mostly on) fever for 3 weeks now, and her doctor isn’t surprised. Said she’s had patients “have it linger for weeks and weeks before they are better.” Not reassuring news. 

Oxford University is progressing rapidly on the development of a coronavirus vaccine. One of the big problems after a vaccine is approved is ramping up enough manufacturing facilities to produce the vaccine in sufficient quantities to supply the public. Anybody who tired to get the shingles vaccine knows about this. AstraZeneca has partnered with Oxford University to manufacture the vaccine if it proves successful and is planning to manufacture 100 million doses by the end of the year.

https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/major-drug-company-partners-with-oxford-to-produce-vaccine-even-before-approval-82835525978 

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-04-30/astrazeneca-partners-with-oxford-university-to-manufacture-distribute-potential-coronavirus-vaccine

had to run a few errands today, took me through MW and SO and Vauxhall and WO.

geez there were a ton of people out today! as crowded as I've seen it since the lockdown started. roads were crowded. lines all over the place to get into stores. walkers, runners, cyclists.

It almost seemed like normal, except for the masks.

drummerboy said:

had to run a few errands today, took me through MW and SO and Vauxhall and WO.

geez there were a ton of people out today! as crowded as I've seen it since the lockdown started. roads were crowded. lines all over the place to get into stores. walkers, runners, cyclists.

It almost seemed like normal, except for the masks.

 No distancing? 
My D and I wear masks, I wear gloves (he can’t get disposable gloves to fit so sanitises lots);  we appear to be exceptions when we’re out. But people are straggling around oblivious to others (possibly the way they drive) a little further apart than usual. Not much, not enough, but enough to be inconvenient. 
it’s as if they think they can discourage those virus-explorer-drones by creating obstacle races. 

distancing wasn't perfect but it was as good you could expect, I guess. Distancing in the stores and lines was fine.

Looks like no in-person instruction the rest of this school year.

Bewildering that with all of the social distancing for the past few weeks our cases keep going up so despite our best efforts people are still getting infected. How?

More testing 

went to Livingston Tire today - no one was wearing masks. no employees, nor the other customer there. Went to Bagels 4 U across the street - a Livingston cop walks in, with no mask.

what's going on? did I miss a memo?

vermontgolfer said:

More testing 

 Yes initially I thought we would see a spike because of the early lack of testing but, to get a test now you still have exhibit some signs of illness. And even if it is random testing it has been at least a month since we have been quarantined so with a 2 week incubation period, if people are following the rules, how are they picking up this virus?

Cuomo was questioning the numbers last week and suggesting he would like the hospitals to provide more information. Are the majority health care workers, essential workers,  households? Are their hot spots? Hope Murphy can get more information as well. 

NJ had over 1600 cases reported yesterday. 

Morganna said:

vermontgolfer said:

More testing 

 Yes initially I thought we would see a spike because of the early lack of testing but, to get a test now you still have exhibit some signs of illness. And even if it is random testing it has been at least a month since we have been quarantined so with a 2 week incubation period, if people are following the rules, how are they picking up this virus?

Cuomo was questioning the numbers last week and suggesting he would like the hospitals to provide more information. Are the majority health care workers, essential workers,  households? Are their hot spots? Hope Murphy can get more information as well. 

NJ had over 1600 cases reported yesterday. 

 Yet the new case reports seem to be at odd with our anecdotal experiences, no?  I asked the other day about what people here are experiencing or know about in the way of recent cases and there was a report here of just one recent, mysterious case.  The recent - last couple of weeks - cases I know about personally are not surprising.   One is a nursing home resident (still doing well) and the other is an elected official, who I'm sure was out there in public doing his job too publicly when he got it.  Besides them, everyone in my universe of friends, family members, acquaintances who was fine for, say, the last 2 to 3 weeks is fine now.  That includes NYC residents.  Everyone I know who got sick earlier is past the virus.  Even a high risk in-law, with a bad health history who really struggled with it for weeks, has tested negative, though he has bronchitis now.

As to the maskless police officer, there are those who are “excused” due to medical reasons, but if that’s the case, that person shouldn’t be out and about. Like for bagels. At a car crash scene I passed the other day, not in SOMA, all but one firefighter were masked. Yet there he stood in the midsts of them chatting away. (So much for peer pressure!?)

It's really hard and frustrating NOT to bring in politics, so I'm going to try and NOT go there on this thread,  But how and who is assessing what is happening on the ground?

Cuomo has a good grasp on where things are and how they should go.  Bloomberg is working on something, but it's unclear when this will be ready and will it be mainly for NY?

Overall, I think what Cuomo is looking for is a more detailed report from the hospitals which will point out the danger zones.  It seems like we need to be doing more of what Hong Kong is doing in terms of reporting.

Here you're able to see a case # - age of person and location:

https://www.coronavirus.gov.hk/eng/index.html

Here's a little info on contact tracing efforts in East Asia:

https://hbr.org/2020/04/how-digital-contact-tracing-slowed-covid-19-in-east-asia

At the White House - the focus is on re-opening:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Here's the CDC page:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/index.html

The CDC site has a lot of info, but not too much on contact tracing.

mrincredible said:

Looks like no in-person instruction the rest of this school year.

 There's not much on-line instruction either. At least in Maplewood/SO.

ok, I just saw one report that the google apple project is getting closer.  This looks promising:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/apple-and-google-release-sample-code-for-contract-tracing-apps.html

deleted.

I'm being a grouch.

mrincredible said:

deleted.

I'm being a grouch.

 Well if you are going to be deleting rants, I'll just have to move over to Soapbox All Politics.

Sorry I missed it.

Here's more on Covid containment in Hong Kong:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/asia/hong-kong-coronavirus-recovery-intl-hnk/index.html

Here's part of the solution:

The government took quick, aggressive action to curb the second imported wave; they barred non-residents from entering the city, halted travelers from transiting through the city's airport, and implemented strict quarantine and testing measures on all arrivals to the city, regardless of origin. Those under home quarantine were given electronic bracelets to track their location.The government implemented restrictions like prohibiting alcohol sales in bars and closing all gyms and sports facilities. Many restaurants and cafes closed; those that stayed open had to cut down seating capacity to increase the distance between customers, or put up physical barriers between tables.

Morganna said:

mrincredible said:

deleted.

I'm being a grouch.

 Well if you are going to be deleting rants, I'll just have to move over to Soapbox All Politics.

Sorry I missed it.

It was nothing I haven’t felt like saying sometimes.