DUMP TRUMP (previously 2020 candidates)
Smedley said:
Nan conveniently forgets to respond to my question as to why after all his time on the campaign trail Bernie has only 12% A-A support.
Who has more, besides, supposedly Biden? Sanders is popular in the Black community, especially with young black voters.
Oh please. Bernie has flat-lined since 2016.
Just like Trump stays at 40% approval because his base won't budge, Bernie stays flat because he doesn't attract anyone new and his existing cult members think that their ongoing support will get them a discount on his next self-serving book.
mrincredible said:
I'm curious about the 12% number.
Two recent polls, Hill/HarrisX and Quinnipiac, in which 12 percent of black voters said they would vote for Sanders:
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3646
In the HarrisX poll, Warren trailed Sanders with 8 percent support among black voters. In the Quinnipiac poll, she led him at 20 percent.
The HarrisX poll, which polled only African-American registered voters, had a larger sample size (three-point margin of error) than the Quinnipiac poll, in which black registered voters were a subset of undisclosed size.
I haven't looked at recent polls but the Sanders support is more related to age than race. His support among both whites and blacks under 35 has been roughly equal.
Ok. Maybe I wasn't clear.
The numbers introduced in the Quinnipiac and HarrisX polls are about the primary. I get it. But what happens when a nominee is picked? Is it someone black voters will support over Trump? Will they be motivated to go to the polls? Especially given Republican efforts to make that more difficult. African American turnout was depressed in key areas in 2016. Without turning that around 2020 is going to be harder to win.
So if I'm looking for a candidate to vote for in the primaries, I want to know whether that candidate is going to boost support or depress it. I don't see data suggesting that African Americans will stay home if Sanders is the nominee. Just that they prefer Biden at this point in the primary election cycle.
So saying Bernie only has 12% support among black voters doesn't tell the whole story.
mrincredible said:
Ok. Maybe I wasn't clear.
Your curiosity was clear, but you also asked three questions. The answer to the first was yes. The answer to the next two was no.
That is true. No one number will ever tell the whole story.
The big picture is that black democratic voters tend to lean moderate, so one can’t reasonably expect black voters to turn out in droves to vote for a progressive.
Smedley said:
That is true. No one number will ever tell the whole story.
The big picture is that black democratic voters tend to lean moderate, so one can’t reasonably expect black voters to turn out in droves to vote for a progressive.
I think older black (and white) voters tend to be more moderate. Younger voters of all kinds are more to the left.
nan said:
I think older black (and white) voters tend to be more moderate. Younger voters of all kinds are more to the left.
this is true.
Smedley said:
That is true. No one number will ever tell the whole story.
The big picture is that black democratic voters tend to lean moderate, so one can’t reasonably expect black voters to turn out in droves to vote for a progressive.
I'd like to know how this is quantified.
mrincredible said:
Smedley said:
That is true. No one number will ever tell the whole story.
The big picture is that black democratic voters tend to lean moderate, so one can’t reasonably expect black voters to turn out in droves to vote for a progressive.
I'd like to know how this is quantified.
Here’s one shot at it.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-do-black-democrats-usually-prefer-establishment-candidates/
OK, I am not big on national polls because they are general and it's the state-by-state polls that tell you the most information--and even there you can't put things in stone. That said, I will mention this one because Bernie is now tied for first and it's probably because of that love letter I wrote to my new favorite candidate, Mikey Bloomberg. If only Hillary would listen a little closer to those voices in her head that tell her to run. . .
He’s only tied for 1st where Bloomberg is included. They asked the same question without Bloomberg in it and Biden scored 23% and Sanders 18%.
nan said:
OK, I am not big on national polls because they are general and it's the state-by-state polls that tell you the most information--and even there you can't put things in stone. That said, I will mention this one because Bernie is now tied for first and it's probably because of that love letter I wrote to my new favorite candidate, Mikey Bloomberg. If only Hillary would listen a little closer to those voices in her head that tell her to run. . .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/
ridski said:
He’s only tied for 1st where Bloomberg is included. They asked the same question without Bloomberg in it and Biden scored 23% and Sanders 18%.
Bloomberg is included because he is running. The video discusses how it is due to Bloomberg's siphoning off Biden votes.
Here's an interview with Ryan Grimm, who exposed the manufactured Buttigieg endorsements.
The 10 minutes I just spent watching the video proved nothing, but for an empty gesture it was pretty satisfying.
"Since September, Buttigieg has risen 16 percentage points among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 25% now saying he is their first choice for president. For the first time in the Register’s Iowa Poll, he bests rivals Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are now clustered in competition for second place and about 10 percentage points behind the South Bend, Indiana, mayor."
dave said:
"Since September, Buttigieg has risen 16 percentage points among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 25% now saying he is their first choice for president. For the first time in the Register’s Iowa Poll, he bests rivals Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are now clustered in competition for second place and about 10 percentage points behind the South Bend, Indiana, mayor."
this is worrisome.
drummerboy said:
dave said:
"Since September, Buttigieg has risen 16 percentage points among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 25% now saying he is their first choice for president. For the first time in the Register’s Iowa Poll, he bests rivals Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are now clustered in competition for second place and about 10 percentage points behind the South Bend, Indiana, mayor."
this is worrisome.
Mostly for Republicans.
nan said:
Bloomberg is included because he is running. The video discusses how it is due to Bloomberg's siphoning off Biden votes.
He’s not officially running yet. Have you read the poll? They asked the question with Bloomberg’s name in it and before that without. In the poll without him in it, Biden is ahead of Sanders.
drummerboy said:
I don't trust the junior mayor yet.
Plenty of time to develop that trust. He is smart, thoughtful, and moderate. I am just worried how electable he is in the end. Trump is great at dragging his opponents down in the mud with him.
ridski said:
He’s not officially running yet. Have you read the poll? They asked the question with Bloomberg’s name in it and before that without. In the poll without him in it, Biden is ahead of Sanders.
As I have been saying, I love, love, love Mikey because he helps Sanders by taking votes away from Biden. I doubt Bloomberg will become a front runner. But, there is also the "be careful what you wish for."
dave said:
"Since September, Buttigieg has risen 16 percentage points among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 25% now saying he is their first choice for president. For the first time in the Register’s Iowa Poll, he bests rivals Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are now clustered in competition for second place and about 10 percentage points behind the South Bend, Indiana, mayor."
It was only 500 people contacted by "telephone." To me, that's a small sample size and telephone means landline and landline means old, conservative people.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6551186-Methodology-Q1-10-Dems-11-17-2019.html#document/p2
basil said:
Plenty of time to develop that trust. He is smart, thoughtful, and moderate. I am just worried how electable he is in the end. Trump is great at dragging his opponents down in the mud with him.
Judging from his disaster in South Carolina, where he tried to fake black voter support, you should be worried about how electable he is.
basil said:
Plenty of time to develop that trust. He is smart, thoughtful, and moderate. I am just worried how electable he is in the end. Trump is great at dragging his opponents down in the mud with him.
He’s weird and benefited from presiding after Giuliani. Also nobody wanted him in this election. Seriously, is there some kind of tax incentive for billionaires to run? I get that everyone knows they could run the country better than President Crimes, but why would Bloomberg, who’s been running since 2007, think HE can win?
nan said:
basil said:
Plenty of time to develop that trust. He is smart, thoughtful, and moderate. I am just worried how electable he is in the end. Trump is great at dragging his opponents down in the mud with him.
Judging from his disaster in South Carolina, where he tried to fake black voter support, you should be worried about how electable he is.
Grasping at straws won't get Bernie more votes. Sorry.
Mayor Pete 2020!
For Sale
-
REVO luggage $100
More info -
2007 Honda Fit $4,400
More info
Free Items
Employment Wanted
Latest Jobs
Employment Wanted
-
Math Tutoring with Certified Teacher
May 7, 2024 at 7:16pm
-
On call house cleaning service
May 6, 2024 at 7:17pm
-
May 6, 2024 at 10:11am
-
Experienced Summer Nanny Available: Thursdays & Fridays ;)
May 6, 2024 at 8:56am
Help Wanted
-
FHF604 PT Nanny for 2 (Mid-June Start)
May 9, 2024 at 7:42pm
-
HF801 PT Nanny for 1 Infant (ASAP)
May 9, 2024 at 1:18pm
-
Very Rewarding Position as a Dog Walker/Pet Sitter
May 8, 2024 at 11:37am
-
SF5002 PT or FT Nanny/FA for 3 (Aug/Sept Start)
May 8, 2024 at 10:59am
-
CF583 PT Nanny for 2 (July Start)
May 7, 2024 at 2:07pm
-
May 7, 2024 at 7:32am
Lessons/Instruction
Advertisement
I'm curious about the 12% number.
is 12% the percentage of African American voters polled who answered that he was their first choice?
Or was it 12% of African American voters said they would choose him over Trump in the general?
Or something else in the middle?
A good comparison, and a relevant one I think, would be to see how African American voters poll about each candidate vs Trump, and whether each candidate would make them more likely to get out and vote.