2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Vote is Revealed 1/22

He had three seasons in his 20s (27-28-29) with comparable plate appearances to the years from 32 to 38 years old.  In those three seasons he averaged half the number of home runs he did in his mid-30s.

mfpark said:

Those were also the years when he became a full time DH.  Just sayin'.

yahooyahoo said:

I was looking at Martinez's stats and he had his best years from age 32 to 38.  That's a big red flag for steriods, just sayin'.

yahooyahoo said:

In those three seasons he averaged half the number of home runs he did in his mid-30s.

In those three seasons, he also had to expend physical and mental energy on playing third base for nine innings.

Also, “half” is a relative term. Going from 14 to 28 is different from, say, 28 to 56.

ETA: And, really, averaging a player’s first three full seasons to evaluate his power isn’t all that fair. I’d take the third-year high, 18, as the pre-DH baseline. So 18 to 28. Huh.

ml1 said:

... What about all those left handed Yankees?  I have to believe their stats were a lot better at home than on the road.

Excellent point.

Were Helton’s stats pre-humidor or post-humidor?  ;-)

Check out Ruth’s and Gehrig’s home/road splits. You may be surprised.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=ruthba01&t=b&year=Career

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=gehrilo01&t=b&year=Career

I am.  Validates their immortal status!

DaveSchmidt said:

Check out Ruth’s and Gehrig’s home/road splits. You may be surprised.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=ruthba01&t=b&year=Career

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=gehrilo01&t=b&year=Career

They stay in the Hall!

M. Schmidt in today’s Times, not helping D. Schmidt’s defense of Edgar Martinez’s exertion in the field:

“Don’t let the hot corner concept fool you. The third baseman’s got his own little corner to protect, some down-the-line pop-ups and a couple of bunt plays here and there, but for the most part, a third baseman can go an entire game and never see any defensive action at all.”

Why Are There So Few Third Basemen in the Hall of Fame?

And check out this Yankee righty’s home/road splits:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=dimagjo01&year=Career&t=b

If only he had been a Brown ... (Then again, he wouldn’t have faced Browns pitching.)

DaveSchmidt said:

M. Schmidt in today’s Times, not helping D. Schmidt’s defense of Edgar Martinez’s exertion in the field:

“Don’t let the hot corner concept fool you. The third baseman’s got his own little corner to protect, some down-the-line pop-ups and a couple of bunt plays here and there, but for the most part, a third baseman can go an entire game and never see any defensive action at all.”


Why Are There So Few Third Basemen in the Hall of Fame?

I think you're still on to something in comparing it to DH.  Even if nothing gets hit to you, being at 3B is not the same as being in the clubhouse between innings looking at video of your last at bat.

The next vote is to be revealed January 22.  Here is the ballot:

Jason Bay is a lock

Rivera is a lock, the weird article by a Boston Globe writer notwithstanding.

Edgar Martinez likely gets in this year.

Mussina will be on the bubble yet again, but there may be enough lack of other stars to push his vote total over the top.
No way that Halladay gets close in his first year of elegibility.

Petite will get perhaps 25%, a reasonable number for his first year.

I would vote for Gary Sheffield, along with the PED guys, if I had a vote, but there is no way they are going into the Hall with votes from the BBWAA.  Perhaps one day there will be a special veterans committee dedicated solely to the known steroid error--er, era.

I do have a beef with the HoF voters.  Omar Vizquel is never going to make it.  Neither is Keith Hernandez.  Each of them has 11 Gold Gloves.  If you turn this around and make this hypothetical -- a guy who won 11 HR titles, or 11 batting titles, but was a poor fielder and baserunner -- he's a 100% lock for the Hall, right?  But guys who were good, solid hitters and the best fielders at their positions for over a decade, not even close to being inducted.

I guess the threshold for position players must be 13 GGs.  Because the three guys who have that many are all in the Hall -- Brooks, Pudge, and Ozzie.  

I agree with your beef on the defensive side of the equation.  Once upon a time that meant more, I think, when you saw guys like Rabbit Maranville getting elected.  

How do some of these players get on the ballot?

Jason Bay? Rick Ankiel? I can't take the process seriously when players like this are considered.

yahooyahoo said:
How do some of these players get on the ballot?
Jason Bay? Rick Ankiel? I can't take the process seriously when players like this are considered.

I believe that the process is that, all players (in good standing) are listed five years after their retirements from baseball; it's up to the writers to give a player at least 5 per cent of the vote in order for them to stay on the ballot another year.  Therefore, many players will drop off the ballot after their first year on it, as they clearly do not have HOF credentials.

yahooyahoo said:
How do some of these players get on the ballot?
Jason Bay? Rick Ankiel? I can't take the process seriously when players like this are considered.

If you played in at least 10 seasons, you’re on the ballot five years after your last game. How seriously you’re considered, on your first ballot, is up to the voters.

Ten MLB seasons ain’t nothing. 

With 43% of the ballots made public so far, Rivera (100%), Halladay (93.8), Martinez (90.4) and Mussina (81.4) are in good shape.  

Schilling (74.6), Clemens (73.4) and Bonds (72.9) are on the bubble.  Three of the least likable men to play the game in our times, yet pretty deserving for their play (okay, maybe not Schilling).

Walker (66.7) is moving up year by year, but it is his 9th year of eligibility.  My guess is he sits on the stoop but never gets in.

Fred McGriff (36.2) will fall off of the ballot in his 10th year of eligility.

Omar Vizquel (35.6) in his second year will not get close, but will keep alive the argument that a great glove is as deserving as a great bat (as I have been convinced by the arguments on MOL).

Andruw Jones (8.5) and Andy Pettite (6.8) are in danger of falling off of the ballot completely if they fall below 5%.

Remember, getting in depends on the percentage of ballots actually cast.  The Ballot Tracker estimates that 412 ballots will eventually be cast, and only 177 are known at this time.  There are still a lot of ballots outstanding, and a number that are not revealed publicly by the voter, so the percentages above will definitely shift before 1/22.  Still, even with some watering down with the remaining ballots, it looks like Rivera, Halladay, and Martinez will get in.  Mussina is pretty close to getting in. 

Mussina and Schilling are very similar in terms of their lifetime stats.  Each guy is a pretty good example of a "compiler" who played for a lot of seasons and amassed a lot of wins.  Neither won a Cy Young, and each was only an All-Star a handful of times (6 out of 20 seasons for Schilling, 5 out of 18 seasons for Mussina).  Schilling actually had a few really dominant seasons, which Mussina really didn't.

And now it appears Mussina is on the verge of perhaps being inducted and Schilling isn't.  It's hard to believe that Schilling isn't being left off ballots because of his open bigotry and his toxic Twitter persona.  I think he's a class A jerk, but if Mussina gets in, it's hard to justify keeping Schilling out.

I totally agree with you on all counts.  I think there is a place for compilers in the Hall of Fame, if only because a number of others have also gotten in so it seems to be one standard to use.  When I think of how many really great stars fizzled out after four or five superb or even stratospheric years, I think there is a value to being able to go out year after year and perform well, if not spectacularly.  And, yes, it really is the Hall of Relatively Good Players, but that is what it is and they both belong.

Sadly, HOF voters still seem to vote their feelings rather than harder criteria, even after all the ridicule and criticism and efforts by the Hall and MLB.  I never, ever liked Curt Schilling (or Roger Clemens, or Barry Bonds) when playing, but that is irrelevant to the fact that he was a damned good pitcher for a long time.  Frankly, in terms of impact for his teams, he is perhaps a bit ahead of Mussina, who by most accounts was a nice guy (or at least not a Grade A dick).

And I still think that the greatest players of the steroids era deserve to get in, along with the really superb defensive players and the really great relievers.  Glad to riff on any of that if anyone cares to go for it again.

Two cents: I belong to the First-Time Ballot Is a Special Honor for the No-Brainers school of thought (rather than the If You’re Going to Vote for Them Eventually Why Not Now school). As much as I’m a fan of his, Halladay isn’t a No-Brainer.

DaveSchmidt said:
Two cents: I belong to the First-Time Ballot Is a Special Honor for the No-Brainers school of thought (rather than the If You’re Going to Vote for Them Eventually Why Not Now school). As much as I’m a fan of his, Halladay isn’t a No-Brainer.

 Which I take is not a comment on the way he died..........which was pretty stupid.

Halladay was insanely good for about 5 years, and very good over his entire career.  I think there should be a place in the Hall for players who were at or near the best at their position for 4-5 years, provided they played the required 10 seasons.  That's why Ralph Kiner is in the Hall.  He had 8 good years, got injured and then played only 2 more.  But those 8 seasons were off the charts.

ml1 said:

I think there should be a place in the Hall for players who were at or near the best at their position for 4-5 years, provided they played the required 10 seasons.

 So do I.

DaveSchmidt said:

ml1 said:

I think there should be a place in the Hall for players who were at or near the best at their position for 4-5 years, provided they played the required 10 seasons.

 So do I.

I'd give a vote to Don Mattingly based on that standard.

just looked up some Mattingly stats:

• 6 time All-Star
• 9 Gold Gloves
• 1 batting title
• 3 top 5 MVP finishes
• 1 MVP

I'd put him in the Hall.

Anyone nicknamed Donnie Baseball has a good case. But not first ballot, which was my only quibble about Halladay.

Sandy Koufax.  Case closed.