Tropical Storm Lee formed in the Atlantic yesterday and is now roughly midway between Africa and the Windward Islands.
As of today, Lee is not expected to make landfall anywhere on the continental United States.
Lee is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow, a major hurricane (cat 4) by Friday, and to reach cat 5 by Monday.
This one has been developing for quite a while. The models are in fairly good consensus that this is staying out to sea, but we are a long time from any potential landfall, and with a hurricane this big, even the 10% chance one model has for NE USA landfall bears watching.
I have been asked about South Florida. Lee is even less likely to make landfall on Florida than the NE USA.
It should be noted that, with a hurricane as big as this one could be, that some of the effects could be felt quite a ways away. It is possible that, even with Lee staying totally out to sea there could be storm, wave, and tide effects along the entire east coast.
Also, the cruise lines should be taking this one very seriously.
Satellite images are animated tap to see moving image
Why models, of all people? No doubt some models are very smart, but shouldn’t the opinions of weather experts carry more weight than the consensus of a bunch of models?
Why models, of all people? No doubt some models are very smart, but shouldn’t the opinions of weather experts carry more weight than the consensus of a bunch of models?
I met a meteorologist who was a hand model, she did it while doing her PhD.
Why models, of all people? No doubt some models are very smart, but shouldn’t the opinions of weather experts carry more weight than the consensus of a bunch of models?
Tell the truth, you’ve been saving that one up for years, just waiting for the right moment. Amiright?
Is Lee going to become a cat 5 hurricane by Friday? Seems to be headed for the Bahamas and Bermuda. Either way it will most likely affect the east coast of America with regards to the tides? It’s these storms that don’t get much airtime that worry me. They tend to pop up at your front door without warning.
Is Lee going to become a cat 5 hurricane by Friday? Seems to be headed for the Bahamas and Bermuda. Either way it will most likely affect the east coast of America with regards to the tides? It’s these storms that don’t get much airtime that worry me. They tend to pop up at your front door without warning.
If Lee reaches cat 5, it would more likely be Saturday
The turn north that the models show would happen Tuesday. Bermuda is at risk, more so than the Bahamas
Is Lee going to become a cat 5 hurricane by Friday? Seems to be headed for the Bahamas and Bermuda. Either way it will most likely affect the east coast of America with regards to the tides? It’s these storms that don’t get much airtime that worry me. They tend to pop up at your front door without warning.
this thing is probably a cat 5 already. Will be interesting to see if it’s upgraded this evening. Certainly can’t rule out a landfall, but I’d handicap it at 15%.
Also worth noting the rate of intensification this thing is undergoing is unprecedented. If you want an example of climate change in action, this is it.
this thing is probably a cat 5 already. Will be interesting to see if it’s upgraded this evening. Certainly can’t rule out a landfall, but I’d handicap it at 15%.
I think it’s at a 3 now. I’m guessing we will have to wait until this weekend to see what trajectory it takes. I’m concerned if this thing makes a left turn into the mid Atlantic region sometime next week. Even if it stays due north it could hit Maine/ Nova Scotia? It might weaken somewhat but it’s kinda worrying that the Atlantic is pretty warm no? I’m gonna be following you guys on this one.
this thing is probably a cat 5 already. Will be interesting to see if it’s upgraded this evening. Certainly can’t rule out a landfall, but I’d handicap it at 15%.
I think it’s at a 3 now. I’m guessing we will have to wait until this weekend to see what trajectory it takes. I’m concerned if this thing makes a left turn into the mid Atlantic region sometime next week. Even if it stays due north it could hit Maine/ Nova Scotia? It might weaken somewhat but it’s kinda worrying that the Atlantic is pretty warm no? I’m gonna be following you guys on this one.
it’s officially a 4 now, but the satellite imagery is quite impressive. Really wouldn’t be surprised if it’s already/close to a 5.
As for the path, in all likelihood this thing stays a fish storm but given how amplified the pattern is I think much of the northeast has a non-zero landfall chance. That said, it’s very, very low.
Max: what is the meaning of that red line over to the left, going up through Manhattan?
The models do not present a single solution, but rather a range of solutions based on different assumptions and calculations that are then combined into one line (the heavy black line on the chart above). The chart is showing all the various component solutions that the 12z run spit out. That line is just one variant of many, and is a bit of an outlier. That's why we keep qualifying out forecasts and won't say 'definitely one for the fishies' for at least a week yet. that, and the fact that every run (the Euro and the GFS run 4 times a day) yields a slightly different set of solutions and the spread at 10 days is still quite wide.
Slight drift: My sister just returned to her Florida home for the first time in a few weeks, to find minimal damage from Idalia. Nevertheless, she can’t find anyone to even come look at it, as they’re all still working overtime on damage from the previous storm that wrecked Sanibel and other areas.
Slight drift: My sister just returned to her Florida home for the first time in a few weeks, to find minimal damage from Idalia. Nevertheless, she can’t find anyone to even come look at it, as they’re all still working overtime on damage from the previous storm that wrecked Sanibel and other areas.
oh…and it won’t be fixed for another year at best. The construction people are not going anywhere near Florida in fear of being locked up and deported. The majority of the construction workers are undocumented immigrants…. It’s time to sell and get out of Florida.
Tropical Storm Lee as of September 6th
I've been getting questions, so:
Tropical Storm Lee formed in the Atlantic yesterday and is now roughly midway between Africa and the Windward Islands.
As of today, Lee is not expected to make landfall anywhere on the continental United States.
Lee is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow, a major hurricane (cat 4) by Friday, and to reach cat 5 by Monday.
This one has been developing for quite a while. The models are in fairly good consensus that this is staying out to sea, but we are a long time from any potential landfall, and with a hurricane this big, even the 10% chance one model has for NE USA landfall bears watching.
I have been asked about South Florida. Lee is even less likely to make landfall on Florida than the NE USA.
It should be noted that, with a hurricane as big as this one could be, that some of the effects could be felt quite a ways away. It is possible that, even with Lee staying totally out to sea there could be storm, wave, and tide effects along the entire east coast.
Also, the cruise lines should be taking this one very seriously.
Satellite images are animated tap to see moving image