The Trump Indictments

Trump is facing pressure from two main venues - NYC under DA Vance, and Fulton County, Georgia under DA Fani Willis .

The Georgia investigation is in its early stages, but the NYC investigation is pretty advanced. John Dean thinks that, based on recent activity, an indictment is coming any day now.

A possible out for Trump is that Gov. Ron DeSantis might refuse an extradition request if a warrant for Trump's arrest is issued.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/542691-john-dean-only-a-matter-of-how-many-days-until-trump-is-indicted

https://www.rawstory.com/ron-desantis-donald-trump/


drummerboy said:

Trump is facing pressure from two main venues - NYC under DA Vance, and Fulton County, Georgia under DA Fani Willis .

The Georgia investigation is in its early stages, but the NYC investigation is pretty advanced. John Dean thinks that, based on recent activity, an indictment is coming any day now.

A possible out for Trump is that Gov. Ron DeSantis might refuse an extradition request if a warrant for Trump's arrest is issued.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/542691-john-dean-only-a-matter-of-how-many-days-until-trump-is-indicted

https://www.rawstory.com/ron-desantis-donald-trump/

One step at the time, let's first see if and what indictments are coming


drummerboy said:

A possible out for Trump is that Gov. Ron DeSantis might refuse an extradition request if a warrant for Trump's arrest is issued.

“Among his social circle in Palm Beach, speculation abounds.”


DaveSchmidt said:

drummerboy said:

A possible out for Trump is that Gov. Ron DeSantis might refuse an extradition request if a warrant for Trump's arrest is issued.

“Among his social circle in Palm Beach, speculation abounds.”

  It's from such tender shoots that great oaks are born.


Are his taxes still under audit?  


nohero said:

Here's a handy guide to help keep track of all of The Former Guy's legal woes.

Litigation Tracker: Pending Criminal and Civil Cases Against Donald Trump (justsecurity.org)

 Just browsing that list, put me in the most cheerful mood. 


News from Georgia. Still ramping up.


news


drummerboy said:

news

 I'm following this but my hope's have been dashed so many times. Then again, maybe New York can bring it home. 


One thing TFG has proven is his ability to avoid culpability and accountability for his actions.

I don't know if Rudy knows enough to bring him down. Apparently TFG has left him to swing in the wind as the FBI and DOJ put the squeeze on. Will he (or anyone who can actually bring the goods) flip on the orange sociopath?


WaPo is reporting that Vance is convening a grand jury in NY.

It's about time.


more news


mrincredible said:

One thing TFG has proven is his ability to avoid culpability and accountability for his actions.

I don't know if Rudy knows enough to bring him down. Apparently TFG has left him to swing in the wind as the FBI and DOJ put the squeeze on. Will he (or anyone who can actually bring the goods) flip on the orange sociopath?

Rudy does not strike me as a highly organized, stable, and reliable witness to be honest with you.


drummerboy said:

more news

 "could" and "might" are doing a lot of heavy lifting in this piece.


ridski said:

 "could" and "might" are doing a lot of heavy lifting in this piece.

fair enough.

plus it's politico.com.


boy, I hope Vance has more up his sleeve than this weak tea.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/nyregion/trump-organization-criminal-charges.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

The Manhattan district attorney’s office has informed Donald J. Trump’s lawyers that it is considering criminal charges against his family business, the Trump Organization, in connection with fringe benefits the company awarded a top executive, according to several people with knowledge of the matter.

If the case moves ahead, the district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance Jr., could announce charges against the Trump Organization and its chief financial officer, Allen H. Weisselberg, as soon as next week, the people said.


A review of previous indictments:

We don't even need to mention T****'s name when you see the word "indictment".

Sounds like round one will target fringe benefits in regard to the Trump Org.

Let's recall what the T**** cons were in recent memory:

From the guy who claimed he "never settles" - he settled for $25 million:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_University

The Foundation - ended up dissolving it and gave out remaining balance to 8 charities:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_J._Trump_Foundation

Various other legal affairs and a good overview:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump

Sounds like Sidney Powell and Mike Lindell took a page out of Roy Cohn's playbook with their counter lawsuits against dominion:

Representing Trump, Roy Cohn filed a counter-suit against the government for $100 million, asserting that the charges were irresponsible and baseless. A federal judge threw out the countersuit, calling it a waste of "time and paper". Trump settled the charges out of court in 1975 without admitting guilt, saying he was satisfied that the agreement did not "compel the Trump organization to accept persons on welfare as tenants unless as qualified as any other tenant".

drummerboy said:

boy, I hope Vance has more up his sleeve than this weak tea.

.

 This is an organization that covers its tracks well. Trump surrounds himself with extremely loyal people so getting someone to flip and testify is a challenge. I think he's also good at avoiding paper trails which could incriminate him.

My guess is we're seeing the tip of the iceberg but it may be all we ever see.


mrincredible said:

drummerboy said:

boy, I hope Vance has more up his sleeve than this weak tea.

.

 This is an organization that covers its tracks well. Trump surrounds himself with extremely loyal people so getting someone to flip and testify is a challenge. I think he's also good at avoiding paper trails which could incriminate him.

My guess is we're seeing the tip of the iceberg but it may be all we ever see.

 He might actually be a genius at living right along the edge of illegality.


mrincredible said:

 This is an organization that covers its tracks well. Trump surrounds himself with extremely loyal people so getting someone to flip and testify is a challenge. I think he's also good at avoiding paper trails which could incriminate him.

My guess is we're seeing the tip of the iceberg but it may be all we ever see.

But this time, they've got the bookkeeper.


Sounds like second degree larceny - didn't pay taxes on $1.7 million.  probation to 15 years possible?


The Trump Organization is also a defendant.

You may know them as that "successful" business that the "successful businessman" ran, which some people said made him qualified to be President of the United States.


Perhaps this is not groundbreaking analysis, but it occurs to me that this “fringe benefit tax avoidance scheme” is really just designed to make everyone an accomplice and engender loyalty to the boss.

Kinda like the mob. I get caught, you get caught.


Hopefully it works both ways.


jimmurphy said:

Hopefully it works both ways.

It seems unlikely to me.

There's lots of speculation among legal expert types out in the Twitter verse. Some are sure that more indictments are coming. 

One page of the indictment mentions an "unindicted co-conspirator" who approved all this stuff. Well see if that leads anywhere I suppose.


I read a persuasive discussion of the effect of Count Twelve in the indictment, "Falsifying Business Records". The Trump Organization runs on debt, and debt is governed by loan documents, and loan documents have covenants about the truthfulness of the information provided to the lender. Existing lenders can demand to see the books, and call the loans if there's a discrepancy; new lenders aren't going to want Trump Organization debt (imagine being a bank official trying to convince the bank to take on more Trump debt).

Trump may run out of cash.


nohero said:

Existing lenders can demand to see the books, and call the loans if there's a discrepancy; new lenders aren't going to want Trump Organization debt (imagine being a bank official trying to convince the bank to take on more Trump debt).

Like Rosemary Vrablic at Deutsche Bank, who succeeded.

Ms. Vrablic and her boss championed the Trump relationship. But it was polarizing inside the bank. Some senior executives argued it was too risky to lend to Mr. Trump, given his history of not repaying loans, including in 2008 when he defaulted on a large loan from Deutsche Bank on his Chicago skyscraper. Those concerns, however, were overruled, and the relationship with Mr. Trump progressed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/trump-deutsche-bank-rosemary-vrablic.html


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