The difficulty in predicting the CA democratic primary
Looks like it's going to be dangerous!
http://youtu.be/R_jq5iUqtBo
Jackson_Fusion said:
Looks like it's going to be dangerous!
How many threads you gonna post that in?
max_weisenfeld said:
Jackson_Fusion said:
Looks like it's going to be dangerous!
How many threads you gonna post that in?
As many as I want to, Max. As many as it takes for people to recognize just how dangerous things are getting.
I posted that link out of convenience, but there are plenty of videos if you're interested. Want to see the one of the motorcycle thugs kicking a guy on the ground? How about the guy punched in the back of his head, his shirt covered in blood?
Seen those already? Or looked away?
If it bothers you to see it repeatedly, ask yourself why that is. Ask yourself if your attitude would be different if the violence was going the other way.
As long as the left keeps assaulting people expressing political speech, and as long as the likely democratic nominee keeps saying "I condemn BUT", as long as the democratic mayor tells the police force not to intervene to keep people from being beaten because he's worried what the world will think if a police officer uses his club, and then blames the trump supporters for getting beaten, I'll keep posting them, unless of course the owners of the site decide I won't, and that's it's own statement.
Here you go- have a read, keep you from getting bored.
http://www.mercurynews.com/bay-area-news/ci_29974258/san-jose-fights-assault-police-officer-follow-trump
Uh, unless those folks are discussing the pros and cons of various statistical models, you're engaging in some pretty blatant thread-jacking. Which, I guess you can post whatever you like online, but it comes across as pretty rude and self-centered.
PVW said:
Uh, unless those folks are discussing the pros and cons of various statistical models, you're engaging in some pretty blatant thread-jacking. Which, I guess you can post whatever you like online, but it comes across as pretty rude and self-centered.
It's a thread on politics for one, it's a thread no one posted in except for you for two, so nobody was "discussing" anything, but let's go with the idea that I'm rude and self centered. I can live with that given the issue.
If you want to focus on Z scores and T tests and fat tails and skewness, have at it. I'm not sorry for pointing out political violence in a political thread discussing a race from which the violence is flowing.
Great confidence interval on this one.
Very positive for Bernie in terms of record-setting voter registration...
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-essential-politics-california-new-voters-voter-registration-primary-htmlstory.html
between the crazy Trump supporters and Trump haters, our political system is a national embarrassment
http://gawker.com/photographs-show-trump-supporters-pepper-spraying-prote-1780399845
We'll see. There have been huge voter registration pushes here especially in Latino and Asian communities and it is fueled by the anti-Trump movement. It is also SUPER EASY to register to vote here - you do it online. And again, I'll use my sample size of one household - 2 people 50+ voted for Hillary - mailed awhile ago. One newly registered first time voter, Bernie supporter, and that ballot is still on the kitchen table.
dave said:
Very positive for Bernie in terms of record-setting voter registration...
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-essential-politics-california-new-voters-voter-registration-primary-htmlstory.html
eliz said:
We'll see. There have been huge voter registration pushes here especially in Latino and Asian communities and it is fueled by the anti-Trump movement. It is also SUPER EASY to register to vote here - you do it online. And again, I'll use my sample size of one household - 2 people 50+ voted for Hillary - mailed awhile ago. One newly registered first time voter, Bernie supporter, and that ballot is still on the kitchen table.
dave said:
Very positive for Bernie in terms of record-setting voter registration...
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-essential-politics-california-new-voters-voter-registration-primary-htmlstory.html
It would make sense if the anti- Trump sentiment resulted in record setting voter registration for the general election. Not so in the primary. Who are they gonna vote for? Trump already has it locked.
On the Dem. side, I can't imagine anyone enthusiastic enough to register to vote for Hillary in the primary.
Interesting exploration of how the limited polling info on Asian and Hispanic voters are causing a lot of unpredictability in predicting the upcoming CA primary:
Hispanic Voters Will Decide Bernie Sanders’s Fate in California
For most folks, the takeaway is that Clinton is probably going to win CA, but there's a lot of uncertainty so anything from a narrow Sanders win to a Clinton blowout is likely.
For stats and polling nerds, it's a good article on the difficulty in building a good model and how small tweaks in the models can give dramatically different predictions.