Polls and more polls

I know that some of you poo poo polls, but I'm addicted.  Interesting polling today showing the Harris/Walz ticket benefitting from RFK being in the race in the swing states.  

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls 

Im trying not to pay too much attention to polls right now. I think we are in such uncharted territory right now with an unprecedented change in the makeup of the Democratic ticket. 

The Trump campaign is reeling because they’ve spent years attacking Joe Biden specifically.  They will probably find their footing and ways to attack Harris in a more coordinated way soon - meaning beyond Donald’s rambling attacks. Harris has to start doing more substantive media appearances and interviews.  There’s the convention next week. Lots of things are going to affect polling data. 

That said, it’s really hard to avoid the headlines about the latest polling numbers. Especially when I so badly want to believe Harris will win!  

mrincredible said:

Im trying not to pay too much attention to polls right now. I think we are in such uncharted territory right now with an unprecedented change in the makeup of the Democratic ticket. 

The Trump campaign is reeling because they’ve spent years attacking Joe Biden specifically.  They will probably find their footing and ways to attack Harris in a more coordinated way soon - meaning beyond Donald’s rambling attacks. Harris has to start doing more substantive media appearances and interviews.  There’s the convention next week. Lots of things are going to affect polling data. 

That said, it’s really hard to avoid the headlines about the latest polling numbers. Especially when I so badly want to believe Harris will win!  

I think you are right that MAGA attacks will become better organized going forward.  Trump, of course, is the wildcard here.  He seems to be showing the effects of aging.  And the prospect of trailing a woman who recently became Black will have him foaming at the mouth (literally, in some cases).

Here's a relevant Tik Tok about Tiger Woods turning white.

#WandaSykes noticed the press treating Tiger Woods “like milk.” #stand... | Tiger Woods | TikTok

Out of curiosity, what more substantive media has that guy done?  He hasn't.  He just sits there and spews lies, platitudes, and racist tropes.  You're being sucked in by the narrative that the media is manufacturing because they want clicks.

Steve said:

Out of curiosity, what more substantive media has that guy done?  He hasn't.  He just sits there and spews lies, platitudes, and racist tropes.  You're being sucked in by the narrative that the media is manufacturing because they want clicks.

I’m not sure I follow you here. 

Trump's whole strategy is to avoid substantive media appearances. Hence the Elon Musk lovefest. It enables the lies, platitudes and racist tropes. And it’s where his base comes to find him. The MSM folks seem to try and filter his schtick down a bit. 

Harris is going to have to run on more substance to win. She’s got a huge emotional headwind right now. I think a lot of voters will need to hear some more policy stands directly from her to feel confident in getting out to vote for her. I think the biggest enemy to her election is voter apathy. She needs to keep the good feelings rolling and add some meat to those bones to bring along more voters. 

I’d love to see a solid trouncing (will settle for 270 electoral votes) and I think the Harris/Walz campaign has some work to do to get there. A repeat of 2020 would be great. It would help defend against “stolen election” claims and give her a stronger mandate. 

mrincredible said:

Steve said:

Out of curiosity, what more substantive media has that guy done?  He hasn't.  He just sits there and spews lies, platitudes, and racist tropes.  You're being sucked in by the narrative that the media is manufacturing because they want clicks.

I’m not sure I follow you here. 

Trump's whole strategy is to avoid substantive media appearances. Hence the Elon Musk lovefest. It enables the lies, platitudes and racist tropes. And it’s where his base comes to find him. The MSM folks seem to try and filter his schtick down a bit. 

Harris is going to have to run on more substance to win. She’s got a huge emotional headwind right now. I think a lot of voters will need to hear some more policy stands directly from her to feel confident in getting out to vote for her. I think the biggest enemy to her election is voter apathy. She needs to keep the good feelings rolling and add some meat to those bones to bring along more voters. 

I’d love to see a solid trouncing (will settle for 270 electoral votes) and I think the Harris/Walz campaign has some work to do to get there. A repeat of 2020 would be great. It would help defend against “stolen election” claims and give her a stronger mandate. 

As a voter more on the nerdy side, I generally prefer hearing more substantive pitches -- but I think most voters don't actually want so much detail. It can be a trap to get too detailed -- look at, for instance, the Warren 2020 campaign. Warren is my kind of candidate, but I think that kind of approach actually doesn't get you enough votes. Normally I find that a bit deflating (I wish more voters cared about the details), but this year I'm less bothered by it -- this election isn't really about health care or tax policy or other policy questions, it's about whether Jan. 6th is our future or not. I think Harris needs to give enough details to come across as serious, but not enough to let those details become the focus.

Harris now has a glide path for winning if there are no major surprises.  I think she'll get a huge bump from The convention and, possibly, from some bod endorsements from celebrity giants like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé.  I don't see Trump becoming more focused in his attacks.  He's not capable. He and Vance put their feet in their mouths every time they speak. 

For the first time Nate Silver gives Harris/Walz an edge, as does Vegas.  And all of this momentum is huge for the competitive Senate races. 

PVW said:

As a voter more on the nerdy side, I generally prefer hearing more substantive pitches -- but I think most voters don't actually want so much detail. It can be a trap to get too detailed -- look at, for instance, the Warren 2020 campaign. Warren is my kind of candidate, but I think that kind of approach actually doesn't get you enough votes. Normally I find that a bit deflating (I wish more voters cared about the details), but this year I'm less bothered by it -- this election isn't really about health care or tax policy or other policy questions, it's about whether Jan. 6th is our future or not. I think Harris needs to give enough details to come across as serious, but not enough to let those details become the focus.

Just watched Biden and Harris in Maryland discussing new health care gains. I thought it hit the right tone. Just enough detail on specific savings. This was simple math and I'm guessing drug prices resonate with many Americans.

jeffl said:

Harris now has a glide path for winning if there are no major surprises.  I think she'll get a huge bump from The convention and, possibly, from some bod endorsements from celebrity giants like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé. 

Don't forget - Harris may have Swift and Beyonce, but Trump will always have the very powerful Ted Nugent at his disposal.

mrincredible said:

Steve said:

Out of curiosity, what more substantive media has that guy done?  He hasn't.  He just sits there and spews lies, platitudes, and racist tropes.  You're being sucked in by the narrative that the media is manufacturing because they want clicks.

I’m not sure I follow you here. 

Trump's whole strategy is to avoid substantive media appearances. Hence the Elon Musk lovefest. It enables the lies, platitudes and racist tropes. And it’s where his base comes to find him. The MSM folks seem to try and filter his schtick down a bit. 

Harris is going to have to run on more substance to win. She’s got a huge emotional headwind right now. I think a lot of voters will need to hear some more policy stands directly from her to feel confident in getting out to vote for her. I think the biggest enemy to her election is voter apathy. She needs to keep the good feelings rolling and add some meat to those bones to bring along more voters. 

I’d love to see a solid trouncing (will settle for 270 electoral votes) and I think the Harris/Walz campaign has some work to do to get there. A repeat of 2020 would be great. It would help defend against “stolen election” claims and give her a stronger mandate. 

First, what PVW wrote.  Second, what she's doing is working.  It's only the media, not the voters, who are clamoring for interviews and policy statements.  The media wants to push that in order to generate headlines, etc., which will lead to money in their pockets.  I repeat, it's not the voters who are asking for this.  The voters seem to want Team Happy over Team Grievance and if that's what it takes, so be it.

This TPM piece expresses the point even better.

jamie said:

Don't forget - Harris may have Swift and Beyonce, but Trump will always have the very powerful Ted Nugent at his disposal.

don’t forget the kid that kicks rocks …

Jaytee said:

jamie said:

Don't forget - Harris may have Swift and Beyonce, but Trump will always have the very powerful Ted Nugent at his disposal.

don’t forget the kid that kicks rocks …

or Chachi

here's josh marshall on "substantiveness". I think he's exactly right. The point is to win the damn election. And screw the feelings of the press if they feel they're ignored. They're prima donnas and most of them should be replaced.

To start, we should note that major national campaigns take months, even years, to put out fleshed-out policy programs. Those are hugely complex projects with myriad policy, coalitional and campaign dependencies. You’re not going to do that from a cold start in three weeks. But there’s a different point here. For years on this site I’ve discussed the Democrats’ problem with what I’ve called “policy literalism,” the idea that campaigns are won or lost on the basis of fleshed-out policies ready to be implemented on day one as opposed to directional signals about values and goals. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with having those fleshed-out policies. That’s one of the good things about Democrats. There’s a big cultural priority on policy work in Democratic politics. Those are important when it comes time to govern, and you can routinely see that in how each party governs. In Republican politics, policy is often backfill to service campaign slogans. And it shows. Having the people who do the serious policy work is great and important as long as you don’t confuse yourself into thinking it’s part of campaigning. It’s not. Campaigning is about directional signals about values and goals. Way too often Democrats and Democratic campaigns get confused about this. “We have all these great policy proposals. And when we explain them to people, they say they support them. So how did we lose the election?”

That’s not what campaigns are about. Repeat it to yourself three times. That’s not what campaigns are about.

read more here

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/08/it-is-good-for-candidates-to-try-to-win-the-election

The only swing state trump is leading Kamala in the polls right now is Nevada. I can’t remember the last time a Democratic convention was so very much anticipated. Stop for a minute and pinch yourselves, most of us on MOL have been born in a time frame where we are witnessing history just unfolding in front of our very eyes. Just weeks ago anxiety and depression was very much palpable here, and around the country. I feel after the convention, in fact while the convention is going on, her numbers will edge up to double digits over trump’s. A lot of people are very excited out there, it’s the shot in the arm this country needed. 
Thank you Brandon….

here's another good take by josh marshall on the whiny campaign press corps.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/kamala-a-riddle-wrapped-in-a-mystery-inside-an-enigma-many-people-are-saying

jamie said:

jeffl said:

Harris now has a glide path for winning if there are no major surprises.  I think she'll get a huge bump from The convention and, possibly, from some bod endorsements from celebrity giants like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé. 

Don't forget - Harris may have Swift and Beyonce, but Trump will always have the very powerful Ted Nugent at his disposal.

I will be impressed if Swift and/or Beyonce endorse Harris and encourage everybody to vote for Harris because they will have to increase their security details by an order of magnitude to protect them from the MAGA crazies.

tjohn said:

I will be impressed if Swift and/or Beyonce endorse Harris and encourage everybody to vote for Harris because they will have to increase their security details by an order of magnitude to protect them from the MAGA crazies.

Beyonce gave Harris permission to use her song Freedom which she opens with so that's pretty much an endorsement. I think she will show up, Swift has some final shows in London this weekend so who knows.

I posted the link when she first used it.

drummerboy said:

here's another good take by josh marshall on the whiny campaign press corps.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/kamala-a-riddle-wrapped-in-a-mystery-inside-an-enigma-many-people-are-saying

the problem with our poisonous political pundit class is if they have their feelings hurt they will take it out on Harris and Walz. I'm already seeing some BS stories they feel the need to run for "balance," like the fact that Walz said he carried weapons in war. Or that Harris isn't providing a detailed economic plan yet. 

They will go full tilt "but her emails" if they feel like they aren't being given the access they feel they deserve. 

How a Russian earthquake scientist collaborated with Lichtman to develop the most successful presidential election prediction model.

Jaytee said:

The only swing state trump is leading Kamala in the polls right now is Nevada. I can’t remember the last time a Democratic convention was so very much anticipated. Stop for a minute and pinch yourselves, most of us on MOL have been born in a time frame where we are witnessing history just unfolding in front of our very eyes. Just weeks ago anxiety and depression was very much palpable here, and around the country. I feel after the convention, in fact while the convention is going on, her numbers will edge up to double digits over trump’s. A lot of people are very excited out there, it’s the shot in the arm this country needed. 
Thank you Brandon….

and compare this to 5? Weeks ago?   Nancy Pelosi should be canonized.  And Biden still doesn't get it. 

ml1 said:

the problem with our poisonous political pundit class is if they have their feelings hurt they will take it out on Harris and Walz. I'm already seeing some BS stories they feel the need to run for "balance," like the fact that Walz said he carried weapons in war. Or that Harris isn't providing a detailed economic plan yet. 

They will go full tilt "but her emails" if they feel like they aren't being given the access they feel they deserve. 

Every day, Trump says six impossible things before breakfast that are worse than a choice of words in one statement once years ago, describing guns, said by Tim Walz. 

nohero said:

Every day, Trump says six impossible things before breakfast that are worse than a choice of words in one statement once years ago, describing guns, said by Tim Walz. 

I know the press needs to be critical. But in our current political circumstances, do they need to nitpick one candidate's policy positions when the other candidate is a lying, narcissistic fascist?