I'm hearing rumors/speculation that Trump may withdraw....

.. I find this a shocking, frightening prospect. It will throw the entire process into unmitigated chaos. What is protocol? Does the GOP select another candidate? How? Who? Do they go with Pence? 

Aaaaah!

TREXIT! It's a thing!

please dear god not Cruz

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/03/what-happens-if-a-candidate-say-donald-trump-drops-out-of-the-presidential-race.html

grocerylist said:

please dear god not Cruz

you read my mind.

Or Paul Ryan, who would probably win   Anyone would have a better chance.

At this point I think that it would be too late.  Trumpets who have enjoyed his style won't fall into line behind someone else who would have appeal to moderates.

A very big IF he drops out, but I think the timing would have the most impact on whom the RNC would pick.  The longer it goes, I think the more likely they would choose Ryan.  If they had to choose today Cruz would have a much better shot.  

There also is the matter of getting on the ballot in each state.  They may not be able to do that in every state so the votes would have to be write-in.

I agree with this analysis (link below) that it's quite unlikely that Trump will withdraw.  But if it should happen, I don't think they can put up a winning candidate at this point.  Paul Ryan is certainly not going to risk it.  Cruz might risk it but would certainly lose.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/it-doesn-t-get-easier

I think Trump will stay in, will lose, and will do all he can to de-legitimize the process.  He's already started on this and will turn it up x 1000.

Unless, of course, he has a complete mental breakdown (how can we tell???)

jeffhandy said:

There also is the matter of getting on the ballot in each state.  They may not be able to do that in every state so the votes would have to be write-in.

We do not vote for a candidate for President. We vote for Electors. Would Republican electors be bound to vote for Trump anyway or could they vote for the new candidate of the party?

This would be absolutely crazy.  Just another reason to hate this man.  Who does this?  Who goes through all of this, pushing out all other candidates and then withdraws?  If its true, I hope its at least going to be some huge scandal that will come out. I don't think they'd go with Pence.  An alternate candidate is scary to me because if they get someone good, that could throw the Hillary presidency in jeopardy.  As embarrassing as he is, Id rather stick with Trump shooting himself in the foot as we go along here so that Hillary is a shoe-in.  Big ugh.

I'm pretty sure the rumors are pure speculation.  I've seen no evidence at all that Trump is thinking about quitting.  Has anyone?

conandrob240 said:

An alternate candidate is scary to me because if they get someone good, that could throw the Hillary presidency in jeopardy.

Do you really think that the RNC would pick a progressive democrat?    

mjh said:

I'm pretty sure the rumors are pure speculation.  I've seen no evidence at all that Trump is thinking about quitting.  Has anyone?

With his outrageosity (to coin a word) increasing, it could be his way of getting out. He is declaring the election process and the media to be totally unfair.

I just walked past a news scroll in an airport that said something about Pence sides with Ryan?!?!

bramzzoinks said:

jeffhandy said:

There also is the matter of getting on the ballot in each state.  They may not be able to do that in every state so the votes would have to be write-in.

We do not vote for a candidate for President. We vote for Electors. Would Republican electors be bound to vote for Trump anyway or could they vote for the new candidate of the party?

The scenario is that Trump officially withdraws. The replacement would then be the official Republican candidate. That persons name would be on the ballot instead of Trump's and the Republican electors would be pledged to vote for the new candidate.

In a phone interview with Fox News, Pence backed the Wisconsin
congressman in his bid against a primary challenger. The Indiana
governor said Trump and Ryan would "do great things" if elected.

"I spoke to Donald Trump this
morning about my support for Paul Ryan, our longtime friendship. He
strongly encouraged me to endorse Paul Ryan in next Tuesday's primary.
I'm pleased to do it," Pence told Fox. Trump told The Washington Post on Tuesday that he was not ready to endorse Ryan or Sen. John McCain of Arizona in their primary bids.

Gingrich has done the same as well as Christie. What exactly did Trump mean by "attack dog"?

So Trump will not endorse Ryan but has told Pence to endorse Ryan.

Curiouser and curiouser.

LOST said:

bramzzoinks said:

jeffhandy said:

There also is the matter of getting on the ballot in each state.  They may not be able to do that in every state so the votes would have to be write-in.

We do not vote for a candidate for President. We vote for Electors. Would Republican electors be bound to vote for Trump anyway or could they vote for the new candidate of the party?

The scenario is that Trump officially withdraws. The replacement would then be the official Republican candidate. That persons name would be on the ballot instead of Trump's and the Republican electors would be pledged to vote for the new candidate.

But the date to change names on the ballot has passed or soon will pass in many states. So in some places Trumps name would likely remain. What then?

A trump dropout would be such a delegitimizing event for the GOP that short of reanimating Lincoln as the replacement candidate, the party's over.  

bub said:

A trump dropout would be such a delegitimizing event for the GOP that short of reanimating Lincoln as the replacement candidate, the party's over.  

From your lips to G-d's ears, as me Mum used to say....

I like this way of looking at it. But people do hate Hillary, so I wouldn't rule out a good run by a replacement just yet

conandrob240 said:

I like this way of looking at it. But people do hate Hillary, so I wouldn't rule out a good run by a replacement just yet

This whole speculative discussion is harshing the mellow of my HRC confidence. 

WE HAD IT WON!

Ex-Trump staffers are actively working on behalf of Ryan's primary opponent in Wisconsin. You have to wonder if Pence is hoping for a "him or me" ultimatum from his ticket-mate.

No matter what the majority might think, a large number of Republicans still support Trump. For many, this stuff makes them even more loyal to him. I don't think someone with a future would ever be forgiven by the base for seeming to push Trump out.

The best play might be to beg Mitt Romney to come back and maybe chip in a little to run some semblance of a campaign. Probably not enough to win over a disaffected Trump base (and possible third party run), but to avert a partywide cratering. President Obama said yesterday that he would have been capable, despite their policy differences.

And you can never be sure with Hillary. Romney might even limit some of the negatives that haunted him in 2012 by making such a huge "taking one for the team" gesture.

As a former Olympic committee head, he could make an announcement the day after the Rio games end.

He's tweeting the crazy at 4am. Is the process different if he keels over? 

(I'm guessing he's on something a bit stronger than caffeine).

If Trump does drop out, he will probably go with a scorched earth mindset telling his supporters to not vote because the system screwed him.

sprout said:

He's tweeting the crazy at 4am. Is the process different if he keels over? 

(I'm guessing he's on something a bit stronger than caffeine).

He's said several times in the past that he only needs  1/2 - 4 hours of sleep. 

cramer said:

sprout said:

He's tweeting the crazy at 4am. Is the process different if he keels over? 

(I'm guessing he's on something a bit stronger than caffeine).

He's said several times in the past that he only needs  1/2 - 4 hours of sleep. 

Sleep deprivation can mimic a whole host of psychiatric disorders:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-a-lack-of-sleep-cause/

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140707121415.htm

bramzzoinks said:

But the date to change names on the ballot has passed or soon will pass in many states. So in some places Trumps name would likely remain. What then?

Most States seem to have deadlines in September or October but in some States the deadlines have passed.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Deadlines_for_parties_to_certify_their_candidates_for_the_general_election

Stoughton said:

The best play might be to beg Mitt Romney to come back and maybe chip in a little to run some semblance of a campaign.

As a former Olympic committee head, he could make an announcement the day after the Rio games end.
 

Well, he did rescue the Salt Lake City Olympics from disarray. Just sayin'.

But you know what? The more there are rumors that DJT will drop out, the more he will hunker down.