edited: Trumps chances of winning are taking a nosedive!
Any candidate, even Trump gets a bump around the time of his or her convention. So normal pattern. It is still impossible that Trump will win.
bramzzoinks said:
It is still impossible that Trump will win.
From your typing to the voters fingers!
I think it's a combination of the "convention bump", along with the fact that the polling probably took place before Bernie's acknowledgement and endorsement of Secretary Clinton as the Democratic nominee. Polling during or after the Democratic convention would probably be a better time to decide whether to panic or not.
Trump's not gaining votes, Hillary's losing them to the third parties in the wake of Comey's public scolding.
I just hope Clinton is practicing her debate skills against someone like Triumph the insult comic dog, because losing to Trump via insult or one liner could be disaster.
Trump is not going to argue based on anything other than his used car salesman skills.
trump is a reality TV guy and he is using the VP choice as a show to get ratings. I think it will pass.
This. The polling took place right after the scolding. Trump will get a bump after he selects his VP, no matter who it is. I'm glad that he's announcing first.
dave23 said:
Trump's not gaining votes, Hillary's losing them to the third parties in the wake of Comey's public scolding.
Comey has helped Trump tremendously. A poll just found that a majority of Americans feel HRC should have been indicted based on what he said. Further investigation of her public statements (lies) vs. the FBI findings will only make things dicier as the election approaches.
Very possible that Ginsberg will help him also. A majority of Americans seem to feel she was WAY out of line in making her hyper-political comments about Trump. Today, the WSJ editorial page joined Trump in calling for her to resign, even while acknowledging that if she does resign, she'd probably be replaced with a younger progressive judge.
I believe the Republican convention has more chance of hurting Trump than helping. He has to really thread a needle to make it truly work for him, and it's tough to get a bull through a needle hole. Further, the circus in and out of the convention center has the chance to be truly revolting. (that said, folks radically disappointed with Bernie's rollover might make the Dem convention a bit messy too)
Nate Silver 538: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/
It has been a strange year. Ginsberg apologized by the way. Just when you think things can not get stranger they do. But it a bad idea to ever apologize to an attack dog like Trump. His success has been because he will never apologize for anything. And if anyone apologizes to him he takes it as weakness and smells blood.
"U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said she regrets criticizing Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, calling her remarks over the past week "ill-advised" and vowing to be more careful in the future."
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-07-14/justice-ginsburg-says-she-regrets-making-comments-about-trump
bramzzoinks said:
Any candidate, even Trump gets a bump around the time of his or her convention. So normal pattern. It is still impossible that Trump will win.
Agree.
Also that the public's still a bit hung over from Comey testimony.
Ain't enough angry white men to elect Trump.
And it's still the GOP's fault for not being able to put up a decent candidate against a very flawed dem candidate.
GL2 said:
bramzzoinks said:
And it's still the GOP's fault for not being able to put up a decent candidate against a very flawed dem candidate.
Too true.
ice said:
Comey has helped Trump tremendously. A poll just found that a majority of Americans feel HRC should have been indicted based on what he said. Further investigation of her public statements (lies) vs. the FBI findings will only make things dicier as the election approaches.
Yes, he did.
People forget that Comey is or was a stalwart Republican. Some Republicans criticized Comey for not recommending an indictment but the fact is he helped them tremendously. Their criticism of Comey helps in making him seem apolitical.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/james-comeys-abuse-of-power/2016/07/06/7799d39e-4392-11e6-8856-f26de2537a9d_story.html
Its impossible for Comey to recommend an indictment when his legal team says and prosecutors know there is no basis. But you can indict in other ways as the above article shows.
ps - Comey was deputy to Ken Starr in the Whitewater investigation.
She didn't apologize, and she didn't say that what she said was not accurate.
"On reflection, my recent remarks in response to press inquiries were ill-advised and I regret making them," Ginsburg said in a statement issued by the court. "Judges should avoid commenting on a candidate for public office. In the future I will be more circumspect.”
bramzzoinks said:
It has been a strange year. Ginsberg apologized by the way. Just when you think things can not get stranger they do. But it a bad idea to ever apologize to an attack dog like Trump. His success has been because he will never apologize for anything. And if anyone apologizes to him he takes it as weakness and smells blood.
"U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said she regrets criticizing Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, calling her remarks over the past week "ill-advised" and vowing to be more careful in the future."
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-07-14/justice-ginsburg-says-she-regrets-making-comments-about-trump
She's a lawyer after all.
"my recent remarks in response to press inquiries were ill-advised and I regret making them" is very much an apology. Of course she did not say her remarks were incorrect, because they were correct.
One can express regret and not apologize. While she didn't walk back her comments-- only that they shouldn't have been said, not that she felt they weren't true-- it's probably a small moral victory for the Trump spin crowd nonetheless.
She expressed regret for saying out loud what everyone would know she was thinking.
nohero said:
She expressed regret for saying out loud what everyone would know she was thinking.
A tempest in a teapot considering
Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, a former Republican state senator,
was a well-known (and widely reported) election-night cheerleader for
George W. Bush in 2000. She proceeded to rule on cases involving the
executive branch.
Justice Antonin Scalia was a duck-hunting partner of Vice
President Dick Cheney, yet participated in many cases his friend’s
administration had before the Court.
And the wife of Justice Clarence Thomas is a lobbyist who launched
a political advocacy organization to oppose “leftist tyranny of
President Obama and Democrats in Congress.” She also worked closely
with groups that have sought to dismantle the Affordable Care Act,
which has faced multiple challenges before her husband’s court.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/james-freedland-ginsburg-hates-donald-trump-article-1.2709903
nohero said:
She expressed regret for saying out loud what everyone would know she was thinking.
Don't we all have to apologize for that from time to time.
From an election standpoint, I don't think it matters much that she expressed regret after being almost universally slammed for her highly inappropriate remarks. She said what she said, and she shouldn't have. Her 'regret' only makes that more clear. Worse than what she said about Trump, which was wrong enough (if not necessarily inaccurate), is how she indicated how she would view issues that have yet to come before the court. Does she plan to recuse herself on cases involving these issues? I'm sure she won't.
I can't fathom what made her think it was a good idea to make her comments publicly, especially the ones that didn't even involve Trump. She handed him a legitimate issue involving her suitability for the court that I expect he will continue to hammer away on as part of his theme of the rigged system that's against him and his followers. What a major unforced error right on the heels of the Comey bombshells.
I'm actually trying to get myself to a place where I'm not so repulsed that I can vote for HRC, but boy they are making it harder by the week.
I can't see a way Trump loses. The entire election is about insiders and outsiders.
dave said:
I can't see a way Trump loses. The entire election is about insiders and outsiders.
That is a big factor, but far from the whole story. There are a whole lot of people of color who have never really done well by the system who aren't even slightly tempted to vote for the white revival.
dave said:
I can't see a way Trump loses. The entire election is about insiders and outsiders.
Clinton has a projected 217 electoral votes with 53 remaining to reach 270. Trump has 191electoral votes with 79 remaining to reach 270. Clinton has 85 winning combinations, Trump has 72.
http://www.270towin.com/
Ginsburg and the decision to not prosecute are blips. A month from now nobody will care what RBG said, and hammering on the email server for too much longer is going to turn people against the GOP. There've been spikes like this before, where something or other came out and Hillary's numbers dropped; but they've always bounced back because none of it has stood up as being especially bad compared to the latest Trump revelation.
Word is that their Convention is going to be all about Benghazi, and Bill Clinton's sexual indiscretions. That'll play great among the GOP base, but they're not voting Democrat anyway. The rest of the country will change the channel -- either out of boredom or revulsion.
And the outsider is gonna get crushed.
dave said:
I can't see a way Trump loses. The entire election is about insiders and outsiders.
tom said:
Word is that their Convention is going to be all about Benghazi, and Bill Clinton's sexual indiscretions. That'll play great among the GOP base, but they're not voting Democrat anyway. The rest of the country will change the channel -- either out of boredom or revulsion.
Well the other day I posted the news that Nigel Farage, former head of the UK Independence Party would be attending.
He may be coming from across the Atlantic but for someone who can see Russia from her house, Cleveland is a bit too far.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/trump-sarah-palin-republican-convention-225541
Up to 29.2% on FiveThirtyEight with a steady increase. Horrifying. And the NYTimes/CBS poll has them even.