Debate predictions

I'm expecting a subdued Trump at the beginning - but I don't think he'll be able to maintain his composure. I do think a lot of the debate will Trump justifying what side of every issue he has been on - like the Iraq War. He will mention China several times - he will not call Hillary crooked.

Here's some Bingo cards to print out:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9P5OZCdQmnQaVoxZVg2VU94SWM/view

A few betting odds are mentioned on this page:
http://www.ibtimes.com/clinton-trump-debate-predictions-betting-odds-what-watch-monday-night-2421758

Clinton Jacket Color - What color will Hillary Clintons Jacket (outfit) be?

White 5/6

Blue 2/1

Yellow 3/1

Other Color 5/1

Black 10/1

Brown 15/1

Red 15/1

Trump Tie Color - What color will Donald Trumps tie be?

Red 1/6

Multiple Colors 5/1

Blue 7/1

Other Color 10/1

Yellow/Gold 10/1

Black 15/1

Secretary Clinton's outfit - Very Serious Pundits will call it the wrong color, which automatically cancels out half of Mr. Trump's false assertions.

Mr. Trump's tie - no matter the color, it will be a Trump tie made in China which is taking our jobs.

jamie said:

A few betting odds are mentioned on this page:
http://www.ibtimes.com/clinton-trump-debate-predictions-betting-odds-what-watch-monday-night-2421758

Clinton Jacket Color - What color will Hillary Clintons Jacket (outfit) be?

White 5/6

Blue 2/1

Yellow 3/1

Other Color 5/1

Black 10/1

Brown 15/1

Red 15/1

Trump Tie Color - What color will Donald Trumps tie be?

Red 1/6

Multiple Colors 5/1

Blue 7/1

Other Color 10/1

Yellow/Gold 10/1

Black 15/1

I think much of the dynamic will depend on whether or not Lester Holt has control of the debate. I'm counting on HRC to fact check. I wish she'd appeal to the TV audience to fact check as well. A simple non-emotional request for folks to check facts.

GL2 said:

I think much of the dynamic will depend on whether or not Lester Holt has control of the debate. I'm counting on HRC to fact check. I wish she'd appeal to the TV audience to fact check as well. A simple non-emotional request for folks to check facts.

Secretary Clinton's website put out a "prebuttal" over the weekend. It covers the "fact checks" of Mr. Trump's past assertions. It's kind of long, but it's a handy reference (or can be referenced at the debate, even by a moderator).

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/briefing/factchecks/2016/09/23/clinton-campaign-trump-cannot-pass-debate-test-if-he-repeats-these-debunked-lies/

An interesting question is - should moderators fact check?

jamie said:

An interesting question is - should moderators fact check?

No.

I went to an Adult website and found these rules for debate - we could a similar format with just one speaker on each side.

SPEAKER ORDER AND RESPONSIBILITIES
There are three debaters per side. Each debater gives one speech. This is the order of the speeches:
First proposition constructive – 6 minutes
This speaker makes a case for the motion for debate, providing a proof of the topic with three or four major points.
First opposition constructive – 6 minutes
This speaker makes several arguments against the proposition team’s case and refutes the proposition’s major points.
Second proposition constructive – 6 minutes
This speaker should rebuild and extend upon the proposition’s case. This means that this speaker must defend and amplify the original proposition points and refute the opposition’s major arguments.
Second opposition constructive – 6 minutes
This speaker amplifies the opposition arguments against the case, providing new information about why the opposition team should win the debate. This speaker should answer the proposition’s answers to the opposition team’s original arguments. This speaker may split summarization of the debate with the opposition rebuttalist.
Opposition rebuttal – 5 minutes
This speaker must put the debate together and explain why, given one or more arguments in the debate, the opposition team should win the debate. This speaker accounts for or refutes the proposition’s major points.
Proposition rebuttal – 5 minutes
This speaker should summarize the issues in the debate and explain why, even with the opposition’s arguments, the proposition teams should win the debate. This speaker accounts for all remaining major points of the opposition team.

tjohn said:

I went to an Adult website and found these rules for debate - we could a similar format with just one speaker on each side.

Not what most folks think of when they see or hear "Adult" website.

I know. But I couldn't find debating rules under Reality T.V.

The context of tonight's debate, per Nate Silver:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

tjohn said:

I know. But I couldn't find debating rules under Reality T.V.

The only rule for tonight: Clinton is not allowed to appear annoyed or exasperated and certainly she may not sigh.

mjh said:

The only rule for tonight: Clinton is not allowed to appear annoyed or exasperated and certainly she may not sigh.

Why?

Actually, the one rule for Hillary might be not to cough too much.

I wonder how much cough medication they'll be giving Hillary tonight, and if that will impact her performance.

Agree. This is what did Gore in against Bush in 2000. There are a lot of parallels between this situation and that one. In 2000, it was perceived that Bush was a lightweight compared to Gore. But Gore - against the direct advice of his advisors - sighed and rolled his eyes when Bush was speaking, and later invaded his personal space, creating the perception of arrogance. Ironically, Bush did many of the same things against Kerry in 2004.

Tom_Reingold said:

mjh said:

The only rule for tonight: Clinton is not allowed to appear annoyed or exasperated and certainly she may not sigh.

Why?

ice said:

Actually, the one rule for Hillary might be not to cough too much.

I wonder how much cough medication they'll be giving Hillary tonight, and if that will impact her performance.

Most rational people are kind of past the cough as an issue at this point.

Tom_Reingold said:

mjh said:

The only rule for tonight: Clinton is not allowed to appear annoyed or exasperated and certainly she may not sigh.

Why?

###a href="https://twitter.com/paulkrugman"###Paul Krugman

✔ @paulkrugman###/a###
To journos already saying HRC's "body language" may reveal "condescension" -- stop. You are betraying your profession, and the world.

mjh said:

ice said:

Actually, the one rule for Hillary might be not to cough too much.

I wonder how much cough medication they'll be giving Hillary tonight, and if that will impact her performance.

Most rational people are kind of past the cough as an issue at this point.

Voter decisions are not rational. I don't say that as a supporter of HRC. I just find very convincing the argument that identity politics are critical and that Trump is making a strong appeal to a certain mostly white identity harkening back to a time when life was less complicated by diversity and acceptance of diversity and there were more good blue collar jobs and so on.

The most accurate way to predict reaction to a debate is to watch it with the sound turned off.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/10/who-will-win/497561/

Doubt I am the only one but I just CAN'T watch. Maybe if I put one hand over my eyes and fingers in my ears while chanting lalalalala like I do when I watch Game of Thrones. Otherwise it will just be too painful. I fully expect a **** show. Hope I am wrong.

I'm guessing if things start going bad for Trump - one of his surrogates will pull a fire alarm. And then he'll avoid the remaining debates.

The very idea that this thing is even close boggles my mind...and really unnerves me.

librarylady said:

Doubt I am the only one but I just CAN'T watch. Maybe if I put one hand over my eyes and fingers in my ears while chanting lalalalala like I do when I watch Game of Thrones. Otherwise it will just be too painful. I fully expect a **** show. Hope I am wrong.

Definitely not the only one. I'm trying to line up an evening of Danger 5 as an alternative.

Or Trump will just say from the podium, "Believe me, a lot of people are saying that there is a fire ..."

jamie said:

I'm guessing if things start going bad for Trump - one of his surrogates will pull a fire alarm.

I think it more likely that HRC will commit the unspeakable female crime of smugness than it is that Trump will say something completely inappropriate.

Interrupting discussion of the debate to link to a bingo board for the post-debate analysis/commentary:

http://www.wnyc.org/story/otms-post-debate-blather-bingo-board

And @librarylady - I'm with you! Can't possibly watch. *Maybe* I can read the MOL live blog (there will be one, right?) in real time, but more likely I'll look at it tomorrow.

I think we need to start preparing our minds for the possibility that Trump will be our next president. It will be less disturbing when it happens if we're ready for it.

GL2 said:

The very idea that this thing is even close boggles my mind...and really unnerves me.

@librarylady, catch the debate on youtube after a day or two. You can play it while you're doing stuff around the house or whatever, and you can pause it and resume later or even after a few days. That makes it easier, and I think it's useful to know what both candidates say.

mjh said:

ice said:

Actually, the one rule for Hillary might be not to cough too much.

I wonder how much cough medication they'll be giving Hillary tonight, and if that will impact her performance.

Most rational people are kind of past the cough as an issue at this point.

First of all, I was mainly joking, especially about the cough syrup part.

But, while I personally found her "I didn't think my pnemonia would be a big deal" explanation to be perfectly acceptable, don't downplay the potential impact if any lingering cough degenerates into a coughing fit tonight, with Donald running over to hand her some water and loudly asking "are you OK?? Are you having trouble breathing? Hillary needs a doctor over here!!!!", all the time rolling his eyes and mouthing "I think she's dying" directly at the cameras. Hoo boy...