"Stop the Polling Insanity" - from New York Times

My first time ever starting a thread in the politics section but I think this important. 

In an Op-Ed piece today, NORMAN J. ORNSTEIN and ALAN I. ABRAMOWITZ write that the polling you see touted online and elsewhere about the presidential campaign needs to be taken with, at the very least, a yuuuge grain of salt. 

They say that "over the past few weeks, cable news networks and other media sites have trumpeted wild fluctuations and surprising results in polling on the presumed general-election matchup between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton. The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll showed a roller-coaster ride: It went from a 13-point Clinton lead on May 4 to a tie just five days later. Six days after that, on May 15, Mrs. Clinton had a six-point edge. But an NBC/Survey Monkey poll showed a bare three-point margin for Mrs. Clinton nationally over Mr. Trump."

See complete piece here.

Great topic, I read the piece this morning.  I always find Norm Ornstein to be refreshingly candid and practical, not a common combination!  I have pledged to go "poll free" until September! 

irishclan said:

  I have pledged to go "poll free" until September! 

Great idea & I'll join you in the pledge.

mjh said:

irishclan said:

  I have pledged to go "poll free" until September! 

Great idea & I'll join you in the pledge.

"Poll-free."  An awesome concept! Not sure how I'll avoid them, but I will try.

irishclan said:

Great topic, I read the piece this morning.  I always find Norm Ornstein to be refreshingly candid and practical, not a common combination!  I have pledged to go "poll free" until September! 

Is that a variation of celibacy?

irishclan said:

Great topic, I read the piece this morning.  I always find Norm Ornstein to be refreshingly candid and practical, not a common combination!  I have pledged to go "poll free" until September! 

Norm Orenstein is against Bernie.  That's why he's disturbed by recent polling that shows Bernie does better against Trump than Hillary.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/why-bernie-sanders-cant-win-and-cant-govern/460182/

Edited to add:  And of course the NY Times ran the column for the same reason: because it's against Bernie and ironically it wants to deny the importance of its own polling.

paulsurovell said:

irishclan said:

Great topic, I read the piece this morning.  I always find Norm Ornstein to be refreshingly candid and practical, not a common combination!  I have pledged to go "poll free" until September! 

Norm Orenstein is against Bernie.  That's why he's disturbed by recent polling that shows Bernie does better against Trump than Hillary.


http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/why-bernie-sanders-cant-win-and-cant-govern/460182/

Edited to add:  And of course the NY Times ran the column for the same reason: because it's against Bernie and ironically it wants to deny the importance of its own polling.

Jesus Christ, give it a break.

Paranoia will destroy ya

paulsurovell said:

irishclan said:

Great topic, I read the piece this morning.  I always find Norm Ornstein to be refreshingly candid and practical, not a common combination!  I have pledged to go "poll free" until September! 

Norm Orenstein is against Bernie.  That's why he's disturbed by recent polling that shows Bernie does better against Trump than Hillary.


http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/why-bernie-sanders-cant-win-and-cant-govern/460182/

Edited to add:  And of course the NY Times ran the column for the same reason: because it's against Bernie and ironically it wants to deny the importance of its own polling.

(I just posted no one should read polls until September before reading this thread.)

It's really crazy - it must be slow news days when polls are the lead. 

It is possible that the Times and Orenstein were not motivated by their opposition to Bernie when they decided to run a column that denigrated facts favorable to Bernie. 

But I think that's about as likely as me not being motivated by my support for Bernie when I post polls that are favorable to him.

Here's a good article by FAIR, the media watchdog group, on the obvious bias behind a recent NY Times piece on Bernie's campaign:

http://fair.org/home/first-do-some-harm-how-to-smear-a-disfavored-candidate-on-nyts-front-page/

Paul, I am pro-Bernie and will vote for him June 7.

That said, the rising paranoia of Bernie supporters is, to say the least, disturbing. Recently, a pro-Trump friend and a pro-Bernie friend posted the same anti-MSM meme.

Bernie has lost.  We fought the good fight, and we have a lot to build on, but tearing down the party has to happen after we defeat Trump. We need to be taken seriuosly at the convention to impact the platform and the leadership going forward.  Being paranoid bomb-throwers will only lead to this Trump or the next Trump eventually winning.

Read the history of Europe in the 30s for an example of what happens when the left fractures in the face of authoritarian nationalism.

jamie said:

(I just posted no one should read polls until September before reading this thread.)

It's really crazy - it must be slow news days when polls are the lead. 

I think the polls are keeping viewers/readers interested. The closer it looks, the more interesting it remains.

Given America's rightward swing toward authoritarianism, who in his/her right mind believes that a 74-year-old Jewish socialist "beats Trump." 

Go with the poll in your head. Much more reliable.

max_weisenfeld said:

Paul, I am pro-Bernie and will vote for him June 7.

That said, the rising paranoia of Bernie supporters is, to say the least, disturbing. Recently, a pro-Trump friend and a pro-Bernie friend posted the same anti-MSM meme.

Bernie has lost.  We fought the good fight, and we have a lot to build on, but tearing down the party has to happen after we defeat Trump. We need to be taken seriuosly at the convention to impact the platform and the leadership going forward.  Being paranoid bomb-throwers will only lead to this Trump or the next Trump eventually winning.

Read the history of Europe in the 30s for an example of what happens when the left fractures in the face of authoritarian nationalism.

Very wise comments and good connection with history. I like some of Bernie's ideas and hope they are included in the party platform but now is not the time to try and splinter the party when the possibility of Trump is staring everyone in the face.

If not now, when?  I am sick of being told I have to vote for someone I don't like just because there is some nutcase on the other side, especially in the primary.  There is always a nutcase on the other side.  Because of the way things are now it is likely that Trump will not even be the worst thing we have seen.  The Democratic Party has gone to far too the right and they need to be pulled back and we should not just be caving every time.  

nan said:

.....and we should not just be caving every time.  

Hope you enjoy the  Supreme Court justices you get from "not caving in this time".

librarylady said:

nan said:

.....and we should not just be caving every time.  

Hope you enjoy the  Supreme Court justices you get from "not caving in this time".

I am talking about the primary now.  I don't know who I will vote for in November.  However, I will be changing from Democratic to Independent.  I'm done supporting the DNC.   If they continue to push establishment candidates, then they will be responsible for tangerine spawn.  

librarylady said:

nan said:

.....and we should not just be caving every time.  

Hope you enjoy the  Supreme Court justices you get from "not caving in this time".

With the many, many judicial appointments the Republican senate is holding up for Trump we can expect the whole Federal judiciary to be very "Republican" for the next 15 years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/opinion/americas-trial-court-judges-our-front-line-for-justice.html

Don't assume that rights such as birth control or LGBT rights are immutable. Many rights are due to judicial rulings which can be reversed.

One could then argue that we can pass a constitutional amendments guaranteeing those rights. Well, good luck with that. We saw happened with the ERA amendment.

max_weisenfeld said:

Paul, I am pro-Bernie and will vote for him June 7.

That said, the rising paranoia of Bernie supporters is, to say the least, disturbing. Recently, a pro-Trump friend and a pro-Bernie friend posted the same anti-MSM meme.

Bernie has lost.  We fought the good fight, and we have a lot to build on, but tearing down the party has to happen after we defeat Trump. We need to be taken seriuosly at the convention to impact the platform and the leadership going forward.  Being paranoid bomb-throwers will only lead to this Trump or the next Trump eventually winning.

Read the history of Europe in the 30s for an example of what happens when the left fractures in the face of authoritarian nationalism.

Max, the latest poll shows 72% of Bernie's supporters plan to vote for Hillary if she wins.  In 2008, at the same time (May) only 60% of Hillary's supporters said they'd vote for Obama.

Bernie is going to support Hillary if she's the candidate.

Bernie is not trying to tear down the party, his proposals are simple and reasonable and would leave the party intact and stronger.

Donald Trump is against the TPP.  Bernie is against the TPP.  Hillary (after being influenced by Bernie) is against the TPP.  Is that disturbing?

There are shmucks in every camp.  Nothing you can do about that.

Bernie is going to fight for the maximum position until the vote is taken on July 28th.  And until then, regardless of the delegate count, he will work within the process to try to persuade superdelegates that he's the best candidate to take on Trump.

There's a lot more that can be done between now and July 28th.

Not sure what you mean by "rising paranoia." Can you provide some examples?

nan said:

If not now, when?  I am sick of being told I have to vote for someone I don't like just because there is some nutcase on the other side, especially in the primary.  There is always a nutcase on the other side.  Because of the way things are now it is likely that Trump will not even be the worst thing we have seen.  The Democratic Party has gone to far too the right and they need to be pulled back and we should not just be caving every time.  

With your comment about Trump I incorrectly assumed you were talking about the general. What nutcase on the other side in the primary? Clinton?

It is absolutely appropriate and good to vote for Sanders in the primary if that is your wish. The whole reason behind this thread is to ask if Democrats will vote for the Democratic candidate come November if that candidate is not your "primary " choice

nan said:

If not now, when?  I am sick of being told I have to vote for someone I don't like just because there is some nutcase on the other side, especially in the primary.  There is always a nutcase on the other side.  Because of the way things are now it is likely that Trump will not even be the worst thing we have seen.  The Democratic Party has gone to far too the right and they need to be pulled back and we should not just be caving every time.  

If we let Trump win (or, God forbid, help him in the effort), his Supreme Court nominations could set the effort back decades.  We/Bernie need to work hard to influence the platform and the direction of the party and that will be a LOT more fruitful and possible if we have a Democratic president.

nan said:

librarylady said:

nan said:

.....and we should not just be caving every time.  

Hope you enjoy the  Supreme Court justices you get from "not caving in this time".

I am talking about the primary now.  I don't know who I will vote for in November.  However, I will be changing from Democratic to Independent.  I'm done supporting the DNC.   If they continue to push establishment candidates, then they will be responsible for tangerine spawn.  

May I ask if you've every actually supported the DNC?  If all you've ever done is cast a vote, then no one is really going to notice that you've changed your status to independent.  Why would they care? You've never supported them anyway.  Stomp away in fury if it makes you feel better, but it's worthless from a political impact point of view.

It's like a recipe for how to not to make a difference.  

And PS:  I think you should absolutely vote for Bernie in the primary.  He's your preference and he's still running.  I don't think anyone is asking you to change your primary vote.  

librarylady said:

nan said:

If not now, when?  I am sick of being told I have to vote for someone I don't like just because there is some nutcase on the other side, especially in the primary.  There is always a nutcase on the other side.  Because of the way things are now it is likely that Trump will not even be the worst thing we have seen.  The Democratic Party has gone to far too the right and they need to be pulled back and we should not just be caving every time.  

With your comment about Trump I incorrectly assumed you were talking about the general. What nutcase on the other side in the primary? Clinton?





It is absolutely appropriate and good to vote for Sanders in the primary if that is your wish. The whole reason behind this thread is to ask if Democrats will vote for the Democratic candidate come November if that candidate is not your "primary " choice

I object to the constant badgering before the primary is even over.  Do you really think I don't know what a Trump presidency would mean?  He's on the news non-stop and I've followed the primaries closely.  It's like when I was and undergraduate Art Major and people would say, "Oh, you're an Art Major?  Did you know you can't get a job with that?" like they were letting me in on some secret. 

mjh said:

nan said:

librarylady said:

nan said:

.....and we should not just be caving every time.  

Hope you enjoy the  Supreme Court justices you get from "not caving in this time".

I am talking about the primary now.  I don't know who I will vote for in November.  However, I will be changing from Democratic to Independent.  I'm done supporting the DNC.   If they continue to push establishment candidates, then they will be responsible for tangerine spawn.  

May I ask if you've every actually supported the DNC?  If all you've ever done is cast a vote, then no one is really going to notice that you've changed your status to independent.  Why would they care? You've never supported them anyway.  Stomp away in fury if it makes you feel better, but it's worthless from a political impact point of view.

It's like a recipe for how to not to make a difference.  

And PS:  I think you should absolutely vote for Bernie in the primary.  He's your preference and he's still running.  I don't think anyone is asking you to change your primary vote.  

Yes, I used to be a proud, life-long Democrat and even campaigned for some of them.  Made lots of phone calls and knocked on doors.  Never thought I'd be leaving the party.  I have heard there is an organized effort to get everyone who feels as I do to change to Independent during the Convention.  Independents are growing, so parties would be smart to recruit them and let them vote in the primaries. So maybe someone will notice and care.  Or not.  Perhaps they will just keep moving to the right and continue to count on scaring everyone into voting lesser evil.  Long-term probably not a good strategy.

nan said:

librarylady said:

nan said:

.....and we should not just be caving every time.  

Hope you enjoy the  Supreme Court justices you get from "not caving in this time".

I am talking about the primary now.  I don't know who I will vote for in November.  However, I will be changing from Democratic to Independent.  I'm done supporting the DNC.   If they continue to push establishment candidates, then they will be responsible for tangerine spawn.  

Sorry, I thought you were talking about the general since that was the original topic of the thread.  I'm still voting for Bernie in the primary.  I'm just unhappy about all the Bernie fans who are now declaring that they will vote for Trump or for a write-in or third-party candidate in November.

nan said:
Yes, I used to be a proud, life-long Democrat and even campaigned for some of them.  Made lots of phone calls and knocked on doors.  Never thought I'd be leaving the party.  I have heard there is an organized effort to get everyone who feels as I do to change to Independent during the Convention.  Independents are growing, so parties would be smart to recruit them and let them vote in the primaries. So maybe someone will notice and care.  Or not.  Perhaps they will just keep moving to the right and continue to count on scaring everyone into voting lesser evil.  Long-term probably not a good strategy.

Unaffiliated (that is, independent) voters may vote in the June 7 primary in New Jersey. 

sac said:
Sorry, I thought you were talking about the general since that was the original topic of the thread.  I'm still voting for Bernie in the primary.  I'm just unhappy about all the Bernie fans who are now declaring that they will vote for Trump or for a write-in or third-party candidate in November.

So am I. However, if Democrats want to help support Trump that's their right.

I noticed none of the Clinton supporters in this forum have said they'll not vote for Bernie should he be nominated.

nohero said:

nan said:
Yes, I used to be a proud, life-long Democrat and even campaigned for some of them.  Made lots of phone calls and knocked on doors.  Never thought I'd be leaving the party.  I have heard there is an organized effort to get everyone who feels as I do to change to Independent during the Convention.  Independents are growing, so parties would be smart to recruit them and let them vote in the primaries. So maybe someone will notice and care.  Or not.  Perhaps they will just keep moving to the right and continue to count on scaring everyone into voting lesser evil.  Long-term probably not a good strategy.

Unaffiliated (that is, independent) voters may vote in the June 7 primary in New Jersey. 

Don't they have to change to Democrat first?  I thought there was a deadline to do that.

sac said:

nan said:

librarylady said:

nan said:

.....and we should not just be caving every time.  

Hope you enjoy the  Supreme Court justices you get from "not caving in this time".

I am talking about the primary now.  I don't know who I will vote for in November.  However, I will be changing from Democratic to Independent.  I'm done supporting the DNC.   If they continue to push establishment candidates, then they will be responsible for tangerine spawn.  

Sorry, I thought you were talking about the general since that was the original topic of the thread.  I'm still voting for Bernie in the primary.  I'm just unhappy about all the Bernie fans who are now declaring that they will vote for Trump or for a write-in or third-party candidate in November.

The title of this thread has to do with an article about polling.  Maybe it got changed?  Anyway, I don't think there are many Bernie supporters who are voting for Trump.  That makes no sense.  I think there will be a lot of Bernie supporters who write in Bernie or vote for Jill Stein.  

nan said:

nohero said:

nan said:
Yes, I used to be a proud, life-long Democrat and even campaigned for some of them.  Made lots of phone calls and knocked on doors.  Never thought I'd be leaving the party.  I have heard there is an organized effort to get everyone who feels as I do to change to Independent during the Convention.  Independents are growing, so parties would be smart to recruit them and let them vote in the primaries. So maybe someone will notice and care.  Or not.  Perhaps they will just keep moving to the right and continue to count on scaring everyone into voting lesser evil.  Long-term probably not a good strategy.

Unaffiliated (that is, independent) voters may vote in the June 7 primary in New Jersey. 

Don't they have to change to Democrat first?  I thought there was a deadline to do that.

Nope.  Walk in, ask to vote in the Democratic primary.  Once a person does that, his or her registration is then as a Democrat, not unaffiliated.

My son's routine, when he was living at home, would be to do that, as an unaffiliated voter.  Then, since we vote at the municipal building, he would walk over to the clerk's office, and ask for a form to change his registration (which he would send in, to change back to "unaffiliated").

That's great to know since my son is registered as unaffiliated and I thought he would not be able to vote and had passed the deadline for changing.  That's one more vote for someone.