MAJOR RAINSTORM Sunday 12/17

Fri, Dec 15th

Rain likely Sunday into Monday

Rain likely to overspread the area Sunday afternoon, becoming heavy at times overnight Sunday to Monday. Chance of rain Monday as well. Total rain 1 to 2 inches.

Accompanied by high winds.... look for more trees and branches to come down.

Same pattern every weekend.

I mean, I’ll take it over snow…but this will be the fourth consecutive rainy Sunday. 

Sat 12/16

Forecast on track for rain Sunday and Monday

The models are coming into line on timing and duration. Likely rain overspreads the area from south to north Sunday midday, becoming heavy Sunday night. Might hear a bit if thunder, too. Rain continues Monday.

There is a rather sharp edge to the rain shield, and so where exactly the storm tracks will have an effect on totals, with higher totals to the west. Depending on track (and whether we get any convective downpours) we could see 1.5 to 3 inches over the entire storm, with the most likely in the 1.75 to 2.5 inch range.

Clearing late Monday.

Thanks, Max!

Isn’t this something similar to a nor’easter? The storm is riding up the Atlantic coast them turns into the tri state region.

Jaytee said:

Isn’t this something similar to a nor’easter? The storm is riding up the Atlantic coast them turns into the tri state region.

By definition for a noreaster the central low has to pass the region off the coast so the counter clockwise rotation brings the wind onshore from the northeast. This storm is forecast to turn inland and the low is progged to come up the Delaware so the winds will be from the south  

Now it's a nor’easter.

MAJOR RAIN STORM with SERIOUS POTENTIAL WIND TONIGHT

Models have shifted the storm track to the east with significant potential consequences for rain and wind. Tonight's storm, now forecast to be a major nor’easter, has likely rainfall of at least 2-3 inches with upside in some scenarios of up to 4 inches.

Winds early Monday morning could be steady 25 - 30mph with gusts over 40mph.

Rain overspreads the area from south to north this afternoon, becoming heavy in the evening, with 2 - 3 inches overnight. Rain exits the area midday Monday but by that time another 1 inch is possible.

There is some disagreement between the American and Euro models, but all majors bring the center of a powerful storm either directly across the region or just offshore. This shift to the east gives the storm access to more water, and as the ocean is still fairly warm, more power. Ironically, it is the storm track (on the Euro) that takes the center of the storm away from us that has the higher winds and rain.

The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for today and tomorrow, I'll put it in the next comment.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
425 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

CTZ005>007-009>011-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-172300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FA.A.0013.231217T2200Z-231218T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern
Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western
Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York
(Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
425 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, including the following
  areas, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven,
  Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex and Southern New Haven,
  northeast New Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern
  Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson,
  Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union,
  and southeast New York, including the following areas, Bronx,
  Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Northern
  Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland,
  Southern Queens and Southern Westchester.

* WHEN...From this afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Minor flooding
  will likely occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts
    are forecast across the watch area today into Monday. The
    heaviest rainfall is expected to fall overnight on tonight
    into Monday morning. The combination of heavy rainfall and
    the already saturated grounds due to heavier rain over the
    last week could result in streams across the area
    experiencing rapid increases and flooding along low-lying and
    flood-prone locations.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

max_weisenfeld said:

Now it's a nor’easter.

MAJOR RAIN STORM with SERIOUS POTENTIAL WIND TONIGHT

Models have shifted the storm track to the east with significant potential consequences for rain and wind. Tonight's storm, now forecast to be a major nor’easter, has likely rainfall of at least 2-3 inches with upside in some scenarios of up to 4 inches.

Winds early Monday morning could be steady 25 - 30mph with gusts over 40mph.

Rain overspreads the area from south to north this afternoon, becoming heavy in the evening, with 2 - 3 inches overnight. Rain exits the area midday Monday but by that time another 1 inch is possible.

There is some disagreement between the American and Euro models, but all majors bring the center of a powerful storm either directly across the region or just offshore. This shift to the east gives the storm access to more water, and as the ocean is still fairly warm, more power. Ironically, it is the storm track (on the Euro) that takes the center of the storm away from us that has the higher winds and rain.

The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for today and tomorrow, I'll put it in the next comment.

So, it's a So'Easter. 

If that's a new weather term I invented, Max, you can feel free to use it.

Whatever you call it...batten down the hatches. Here in SC, we've been continuous heavy rain for at least the last 6-7 hours, 3+ inches so far, with forecast of at least double that. Winds have been steady 25-30, with gusts 50-60. A few tornados off shore, but doesn't appear any have made landfall.  It's dark enough that all the outdoor lights are on. Fortunately, only 1 brief outage so far, but I emphasize "so far".

ETA...As of 4:00, there are unofficial rain gauges in the area reporting over 14 inches of rain, and we ain't done yet.

Monday Dec 18th

Strong low pressure center passes just off the Jersey coast this morning.

Although the worst of the rainfall is past, showers and rain continue throughout the morning and could persist into the early afternoon. Some minor flooding of fields and ponding on roads is happening and there are trees down. The NWS has continued a Flood Watch at this time.

Wind abating somewhat with steady 10-20mph throughout the day and gusts 25-35, especially in the afternoon following the passage of the low.

Temps start dropping tonight but should stay above freezing until Tuesday night.

According to my basement floor, it rained a LOT. 

@max_weisenfeld,

How much rain have you recorded.  Seems like well over 3 inches.

Found this website:

East Branch Rahway River at Maplewood NJ - USGS Water Data for the Nation

Shows rainfall total and river levels.

I had 3.03 inches as of 8:20am

Millburn's Main St and Taylor Park are flooding. That dredging probably saved us from earlier and worse flooding. We'll see what today brings.

By the Millstone is flooded and the golf course looks like a lake. I don't understand why the schools are having 4 hour days. Getting the kids to school on time was the major issue. Is it supposed to get much worse between 2pm and 4pm? 

Don't go on Valley

jfinnegan said:

By the Millstone is flooded and the golf course looks like a lake. I don't understand why the schools are having 4 hour days. Getting the kids to school on time was the major issue. Is it supposed to get much worse between 2pm and 4pm? 

I was wondering about that. Is it possible they’re worried about continued and worsening flooding of the Rahway as upstream water makes its way to us?

mrincredible said:

I was wondering about that. Is it possible they’re worried about continued and worsening flooding of the Rahway as upstream water makes its way to us?

The latest I had heard was the Columbia cafeteria flooded and they provide the lunches for most of the schools in the district. Very poor communications, but par for the course. 

Memorial Park. 

jfinnegan said:

The latest I had heard was the Columbia cafeteria flooded and they provide the lunches for most of the schools in the district. Very poor communications, but par for the course. 

That makes sense. Principal Sanchez mentioned a “cafeteria problem” in his email

ETA: sorry, you’re absolutely right. That information was in a separate email from the district   

jfinnegan said:

By the Millstone is flooded and the golf course looks like a lake. I don't understand why the schools are having 4 hour days. Getting the kids to school on time was the major issue. Is it supposed to get much worse between 2pm and 4pm? 

Today is a half-day for the schools?  Not seeing that anywhere else.

Source?

jimmurphy said:

Today is a half-day for the schools?  Not seeing that anywhere else.

Source?

We received calls and emails from the school principals. It's district wide. I hope there were no showings of the Millstone planned for today. 

jfinnegan said:

We received calls and emails from the school principals. It's district wide. I hope there were no showings of the Millstone planned for today. 

Thanks. Interesting that there is nothing posted on the district website.

jimmurphy said:

jfinnegan said:

We received calls and emails from the school principals. It's district wide. I hope there were no showings of the Millstone planned for today. 

Thanks. Interesting that there is nothing posted on the district website.

The district website is never up to date.

jfinnegan said:

By the Millstone is flooded and the golf course looks like a lake. I don't understand why the schools are having 4 hour days. Getting the kids to school on time was the major issue. Is it supposed to get much worse between 2pm and 4pm? 

Golf Course looking out to the Millstone around 7.50 this morning. Also a shot of Millburn Avenue later, where water had forced a manhole cover up and was shooting out of it.

ridski said:

Golf Course looking out to the Millstone around 7.50 this morning. Also a shot of Millburn Avenue later, where water had forced a manhole cover up and was shooting out of it.

I live on Broadview. When I was driving down the street I saw that "lake" at the golf course. I hope your basement and house are ok.