NJ Transit Fare Increase -- how much will it really be?

I see on this fare chart from NJ Transit:

http://www.njtransit.com/pdf/Cap_9percent_Rail_NYP.pdf

That the monthly fare from South Orange to New York Penn station is proposed to go from $193 to $210.

This is my first experience with fare increases with NJ Transit, so I was wondering how likely it is that this is what the final increase will actually be? I see that the document is sub-headed "Proposed, October 1, 2015," suggesting that the final fares are still be be decided.

If you haven't been the recipient of one of my lectures, advance warning they are essay length and my venom is in no way aimed at you.

Once approved by NJT's Board of Directors, the increase is a done deal. The reason it says "proposed" is those are the fares that were prepared prior to the Board's vote, which happened last month.

The worse news is all signs point to another big hike next year. Christie has hacked NJT's operating subsidies 90%, and as this gloomy article notes, $2 billion in capital funds have been used to plug their operating hole in the last 3 years. I've pointed out in other threads this is the beginning of a death spiral for any transit agency. Jacking up fares drives away higher paying rail riders who have a choice, meaning lower farebox revenues. Insufficient operating funds means service cuts, which so far have been aimed mostly at the much larger bus system, especially the parts serving low income riders who don't have a car.

http://www.nj.com/traffic/index.ssf/2015/07/5_reasons_why_youll_likely_get_hit_with_an_nj_transit_fare_hike_again_in_2016.html

Capital money keeps the existing system in good repair and allows improvements and buying new equipment. Without it, the system falls apart and repels more commuters. This is what happened to the New York Subway in the 70s, which is still recovering from those capital fund diversions.

Sorry for the heavy dose of negativity, but NJT has been the whipping post of the most anti-transit governor in our history. His 2010 hike of 25% was the biggest in history, so 9% is a bargain by comparison.

Here's hoping your commute is as pain free as current conditions allow.

dk50b said:
Once approved by NJT's Board of Directors, the increase is a done deal. The reason it says "proposed" is those are the fares that were prepared prior to the Board's vote, which happened last month.

Thanks!

As for the rest, I completely agree with you, but since this isn't the "soapbox all politics" area I'll refrain from chiming in

dk50b said:
I've pointed out in other threads this is the beginning of a death spiral for any transit agency. Jacking up fares drives away higher paying rail riders who have a choice, meaning lower farebox revenues. Insufficient operating funds means service cuts, which so far have been aimed mostly at the much larger bus system, especially the parts serving low income riders who don't have a car.

You won't see a death spiral due to fare increases as long as the equipment is maintained.

We've seen tolls increase like crazy and business has never been better. We've seen significant subway fare increases with increasing rider volume over the years.

People aren't going to commute to the city by car just because NJ Transit increases their fare by 20%. The NJ transit fare increase is trivial compared to the car commuting cost NYC, tolls and parking fees.

BG9 said:

dk50b said:
I've pointed out in other threads this is the beginning of a death spiral for any transit agency. Jacking up fares drives away higher paying rail riders who have a choice, meaning lower farebox revenues. Insufficient operating funds means service cuts, which so far have been aimed mostly at the much larger bus system, especially the parts serving low income riders who don't have a car.

You won't see a death spiral due to fare increases as long as the equipment is maintained.
We've seen tolls increase like crazy and business has never been better. We've seen significant subway fare increases with increasing rider volume over the years.
People aren't going to commute to the city by car just because NJ Transit increases their fare by 20%. The NJ transit fare increase is trivial compared to the car commuting cost NYC, tolls and parking fees.

If you believe equipment maintenance hasn't declined I think riders might feel differently. Anytime a door won't open or a locomotive stops working, it's lack of maintenance.

Just as critically, NJT's infrastructure is maintained and upgraded with capital funds. With the exception of the NE Corridor and NY Penn Sta, NJT owns and maintains its right of way and stations. It's impossible to keep it in a good and state of repair without sufficient funds, which the current budget doesn't provide. Add to this to the fact all of the new lines added since the early 90s came with no increase in operating or capital subsidies, and you have a hole that's been growing exponentially.

I'm not saying there's going to be any immediate switch from rail to car. I agree no one who takes the train has the real option to drive. In the long term, the lack dependable service to the City compared to the Metro-North and LIRR will put the entire state at an enormous competitive disadvantage, depressing property values relative to places making huge upgrades like the LIRR East Side Access.

If you see no fiscal meltdown looming in the multiple timebombs detailed in the article I linked, I'm not sure what would be cause for alarm. Based on the history of mass transit, NJT is a textbook case of an inevitable collapse.