matthew

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?gm_track#contents

Lots of discussion about this on http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t722p400-hurricane-matthew

It's a fun read.Early on in the thread weather models show the storm at CAT 4 coming up the east coast, with lots of, "holy ****," reactions from many of the posters. Now as the storm develops reason prevails.

It's kinda like MOL.

Getting concerned

BG9 said:

Getting concerned

Not to minimize your worries BG9-

Matthew is moving SO slowly, that weather models have this storm moving north in 10 days. A lot can happen between now and then. As a consequence any weather maps showing the projected storm path can be taken with a grain of salt.

With that said, you could be one of the first people to get supplies, just in case, beating the lines of panicked individuals who waited til the last minute

wharfrat said:

BG9 said:

Getting concerned

Not to minimize your worries BG9-

Matthew is moving SO slowly, that weather models have this storm moving north in 10 days. A lot can happen between now and then. As a consequence any weather maps showing the projected storm path can be taken with a grain of salt.

With that said, you could be one of the first people to get supplies, just in case, beating the lines of panicked individuals who waited til the last minute

Looking at the chart, I believe, the numbers are hours from now. 144 to 168 to get to us, six or seven days. Hopefully the tracks are off and in that time the storm will have weakened considerably.

I'm not worried about supplies. An enforced diet would good for me. I worry about serious damage and a long loss of power.

Here are the intensity forecasts. Divided, either disastrous (upper cat 4) or bad (cat 3).

A good animation of damage done by cat 3 and 4:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Those are daunting wind speeds. And while Matthew itself is wound tightly, the wind speeds at the outer edge of the storm are still strong.

worried about our second home Jamaica right now. Prayers for our friends there and their neighbors in Haiti and Cuba. The Bahamas looks to be squarely next too. After that, let's hope it blows out to sea because if this thing keeps heading northwest, the US us in for trouble.

conandrob240 said:

worried about our second home Jamaica right now. Prayers for our friends there and their neighbors in Haiti and Cuba. The Bahamas looks to be squarely next too. After that, let's hope it blows out to sea because if this thing keeps heading northwest, the US us in for trouble.

Hope you come out unscathed! Fingers crossed.

should have put "second home" in quotes. We don't own there, just have lots of friends from 20+ trips but, thanks! I'm sure they'll take your crossed fingers (and all the other ones they get!)

Mathew is tightly wound. Which means your friends in Jamaica may escape the worst.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/234902.shtml?hwind120#wcontents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/234902.shtml?50wind120#wcontents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/234902.shtml?tswind120#wcontents

yes, amazing how it seems like it's going to spare those islands and come right up the middle. but this means a direct hit for the Bahamas then right?

conandrob240 said:

yes, amazing how it seems like it's going to spare those islands and come right up the middle. but this means a direct hit for the Bahamas then right?

It seems so.

Awhile ago (5 days?) they expected the hurricane to go more over Cuba, land and mountains, and weaken as a result. Then the estimate was that having passed Cuba the wind speed would be down to about 90. Now it looks to be about 130.

Not good for us.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Matthew looks pretty bad for Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba, but the most likely plots have it more offshore for us. You are right that the plots are in hours, so we are looking out 7 days. For now, we watch. In 3 days, we start taking plots more seriously.

max_weisenfeld said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Matthew looks pretty bad for Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba, but the most likely plots have it more offshore for us. You are right that the plots are in hours, so we are looking out 7 days. For now, we watch. In 3 days, we start taking plots more seriously.

as usual, your right.

This is what happens when I sit home all day bored with crappy outside weather this week. Nervous me.