Long Hot Summer

Other maps and the forecast discussion seems to indicate a trend towards warmer temps as the summer goes on, and a higher likelihood of warmer than average climate in the Fall.  In fact, they expect June to be closer to average, with the higher temps more likely in July and especially August.

We are currently in a transition period between el Nino and la Nina.  This is in and of itself an indicator for warmer conditions, especially as we move into a full la Nina in July and August.

The hurricane season is expected to be normal.  We are on the second named Atlantic storm of the season, Bonnie, who is well out to sea now.  They are watching a system in the gulf of Mexico.

Oh, this is about the weather, I see.  For a minute there, I was going to ask you to move this discussion to the Politics section.

What's the word on rainfall?  Right now, things are pretty dry.  The Rahway River through the Reservation is mostly a dry stream bed right now.

Rainfall is expected to be normal.

Remember, these forecasts are on a large, regional level over a multi-month period.  Idividual locations can and will deviate from the larger patterns.

sounds awesome to me!

Me thinks the West will burn burn burn this summer.  Wild fires will be rampant.

yahooyahoo said:

Me thinks the West will burn burn burn this summer.  Wild fires will rampant.

Actually, a lot of the mountain west could get above-average rainfall.  At least we can hope.

Colin became named storm number 3 today: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Nothing for us to worry about but it's certainly going to be a wet few days between FL and NC.

I am soooo looking forward to unmitigated heat  (Insert sarcasm emoji here.)

max_weisenfeld said:

Remember, these forecasts are on a large, regional level over a multi-month period.  Idividual locations can and will deviate from the larger patterns.

so in other words, absolutely anything can happen, anywhere? 

max_weisenfeld said:

yahooyahoo said:

Me thinks the West will burn burn burn this summer.  Wild fires will rampant.

Actually, a lot of the mountain west could get above-average rainfall.  At least we can hope.

In other words, 4 rain-producing thunderstorms instead of 2 or 3 between now and October.    

Max, where is the rain you promised?   

I've found predictions about seasons, e.g. it's going to be a hard winter, to be right...about 50% of the time.

xavier67 said:

Max, where is the rain you promised?  "> 

All you had to do is ask.

https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/27/perfect-storm-brewing-for-california-fire-season

"CALIFORNIA’S CLIMATE HAS always been hospitable to fire – it comes with the territory. But add five years of drought, a bark beetle blight killing trees by the millions and rising temperatures, and it’s a recipe for disaster."