Hurricane Matthew

While it is still too early to forecast, some of the models have Matthew on a course that would affect our area.

This storm, while powerful, would *not* in any of the current scenarios be a Sandy-style direct hit, but something both shorter in duration and less severe.

There is the potential for heavy rain and wind. There is at this time equal potential for a complete miss.

Timeframe is Sunday/Monday.

I'll take heavy rain for 100, Max.

Rain we need , wind we don't . As long as we don't lose power a few inches are needed.

We're supposed to be heading to Miami Beach early Friday to celebrate Mr. Blackcat's 50th b-day

blackcat said:

We're supposed to be heading to Miami Beach early Friday to celebrate Mr. Blackcat's 50th b-day

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-matthew-tuesday-20161004-story.html

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article105837727.html

I just got a new roof. Bring it on. No more buckets and bowls everywhere whenever the sky gets cloudy.

Damn damn damn....We were originally leaving Saturday but there weren't 3 seats available so we switched to Friday

I'd switch that flight as soon as you can without penalty.

Airlines are allowing free flight changes to PBI/ FLL/ Miami for Thursday/Friday. You should NOT come.

I'm in Palm Beach county -- stores are out of water, bread, batteries, etc. Lines for gas are blocks long. We're taking this one very seriously.

*%##!!!!!

Will talk to Mr. Blackcat tonight and figure out what we'll do.

Plus my mom is in Port St. Lucie

even if not a close or direct hit, you'll just be sitting in rain and wind anyway. Pick a different weekend.

This thing looks like it's going to roll right up the Bahamas islands as a Cat 4 with 15' swells that could be catastrophic for the Bahamas.

And if the storm timetable goes as currently predicted, I'd expect your flight will be cancelled.

I am in Boca Raton and my neighborhood gas station is completely out of gas. My car is full, but I don't have anything for the generator. I'm hoping at 10 pm or so I'll be able to find a gas station without long lines.

blackcat - definitely change your tickets as soon as possible.

@max - why do hurricanes always hit (in this area) at night?

We're due to drive to Pawleys island on Sunday. Guess we should start planning a different vacay.

We have a wedding in Savanah Georgia on Saturday, flying back on Sunday! Suggestions please!

debby said:

@max - why do hurricanes always hit (in this area) at night?

They don't, not always.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria

SC governor has declared MANDATORY evacuation of entire coastline as of 3pm tomorrow. All highways will be 100% outbound, with hefty fines for those remaining. They're taking this very seriously. Looks like we're gonna have to re-plan our vacay.

yeah, this is starting to shape up to look very scary for the SE coast

Of course it is still too early to speculate about impacts in our area, but today the general trend of the models has shifted more offshore for us, which is a positive sign.

There is another feature, a front moving in from our west, the could suck moisture out of Matthew and dump a few inches on us Saturday. We'll keep an eye on that, too.

Just spoke to my Dad who is in Melbourne Beach, FL - midcoast near Cape Canaveral. They plan to leave the island Thursday morning, cross the bridge and go a few miles inland to friends' house. Only 40-50mph winds forecasted, he says. Good plan?

In my 13 years here, the outer bands hung around all day, but the eyes passed over night.

max_weisenfeld said:

debby said:

@max - why do hurricanes always hit (in this area) at night?

They don't, not always.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria

never noticed hurricanes only passing at night.

Actually, there was one (Maybe Wilma?) that I remember going out in daylight to take a look after the front edge passed, but the trailing edge had not yet arrived.

did you find gas @debby? Stay safe!

Overnight hurricane forecast models have Matthew staying south of us. Some speculation among interested meteorologists that Matthew circles over the Bahamas a second time next week.

Such a huge change in the models in such a short time is very unusual.

@doulamomma - not yet!

I.m really not concerned about safety, but the no gas thing could be a problem. We'll keep looking, but it's doubtful.

Both the Euro and the GFS models have, for the last couple of runs, disconnected the northern energy flow from the hurricane. The result is the storm is pushed further south and east, away from us. A secondary effect would be that the front would not have access to the tropical moisture I mentioned last night, eliminating the heavy rain from our forecast.

If this solution holds for another 12 hours, we can pretty much put a pin in it.

This forecast is also much better for the southeast coast.

MGonz said:

Such a huge change in the models in such a short time is very unusual.

This solution has been in the mix, but the NHC has been focusing on the impact on land, and when the consensus of the models moved on shore yesterday, priority was placed on safety and preparedness. If you look at the cone of uncertainty over the last few days, both yesterday's and this morning's tracks are within the cone.