Will driverless cars ever actually be a thing?

conandrob240 said:

Can't you get an Uber to your door now? Still not getting this rationale.

Gilgul said:

Car Sharing. Less need to own a car if you can quickly get an automated vehicle from Uber to your door. 

conandrob240 said:

I don't understand why car sales would drop? You mean BMW sales will drop?

Yes, but if the car can drive it's self back to the house after dropping you off at work then the person at home no longer needs a second car to get to work/ school/shopping.... Car sales are down this year, not sure how much of that is due to the car sharing.

It is expected that Uber can be cheaper if there is no driver. 

Also, if the car is doing the driving who needs a BMW?  It's not going to go faster than the car ahead of it.  The premium paid for handling and acceleration will be harder to justify.  

As far as sharing the road with older cars, I wonder about that myself.  My truck is 33 years old and runs fine. I can't afford to replace it.

won't the emphasis go on passenger benefits (I mean apart from safety, construction and programming), so we'll be looking at better upholstery, leg room, other internal design features similar to coaches and air flight considerations?

Driven cars will never be banned in the U.S. 

People will insist it's their right to be able to drive their own vehicles.

maps said:

Gilgul said:

Question is when will driven cars be banned. Automated cars will work best if all cars are automated and in communication. 

I don't actually think there is any plan to have cars communicate with each other, it really isn't necessary. I actually think the communication between the cars would be slower than the actual sensors, give that they use laser-based LIDAR to determine things such as distance and speed of other vehicles. 

yahooyahoo said:

Driven cars will never be banned in the U.S. 

People will insist it's their right to be able to drive their own vehicles.

maps said:

Gilgul said:

Question is when will driven cars be banned. Automated cars will work best if all cars are automated and in communication. 

I don't actually think there is any plan to have cars communicate with each other, it really isn't necessary. I actually think the communication between the cars would be slower than the actual sensors, give that they use laser-based LIDAR to determine things such as distance and speed of other vehicles. 

Perhaps, but the insurance may become so high on driven cars that they would effectively be banned.

joanne said:

won't the emphasis go on passenger benefits (I mean apart from safety, construction and programming), so we'll be looking at better upholstery, leg room, other internal design features similar to coaches and air flight considerations?

yes.

The Mercedes booth at CES last year had a concept self-driving car that looked a like a living room on wheels.  Big cushy chairs that could swivel to face each other.  And illustrations depicting passengers reading their tablets while drinking martinis

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yahooyahoo said:

Driven cars will never be banned in the U.S. 

People will insist it's their right to be able to drive their own vehicles.

maps said:

Gilgul said:

Question is when will driven cars be banned. Automated cars will work best if all cars are automated and in communication. 

I don't actually think there is any plan to have cars communicate with each other, it really isn't necessary. I actually think the communication between the cars would be slower than the actual sensors, give that they use laser-based LIDAR to determine things such as distance and speed of other vehicles. 

Of course, driving is not a right.  It is a privilege extended by the state to people willing to follow the state rules.  We may not have a choice.  Personally, I'd love to get in my car after work, take a nap, and wake up home.

I didn't say it was a right. I said people will insist it's their right.

It will need to be done at the federal level and it will be litigated ad nauseam. I don't see it happening in anyone's lifetime that's on MOL. 

FilmCarp said:

yahooyahoo said:

Driven cars will never be banned in the U.S. 

People will insist it's their right to be able to drive their own vehicles.

maps said:

Gilgul said:

Question is when will driven cars be banned. Automated cars will work best if all cars are automated and in communication. 

I don't actually think there is any plan to have cars communicate with each other, it really isn't necessary. I actually think the communication between the cars would be slower than the actual sensors, give that they use laser-based LIDAR to determine things such as distance and speed of other vehicles. 

Of course, driving is not a right.  It is a privilege extended by the state to people willing to follow the state rules.  We may not have a choice.  Personally, I'd love to get in my car after work, take a nap, and wake up home.

I could imagine a new market might be seniors who gave up their cars because they could no longer drive.  OR senior developments offering self driving cars as a benefit. 

Speed humps are proliferating in this area.  How will a driverless car recognize these?  It could wake up a dozing person with a sharp bump. 

Oh, the engineers will solve this no doubt.  Right.

speed humps are an easy problem.  Potholes, not so much.  

Speed humps require signage.  The cars should be able to recognize the required signs.  Potholes are random.  But all of these things are small details and I would doubt anyone would have predicted how fast from the original cell phones to the smart phones we have today.

One word. 

Crosswalks.

if all cars were self-driving, why would we need speed humps?

mrmaplewood said:

Speed humps are proliferating in this area.  How will a driverless car recognize these?  It could wake up a dozing person with a sharp bump. 

Oh, the engineers will solve this no doubt.  Right.

mrmaplewood said:

Speed humps are proliferating in this area.  How will a driverless car recognize these?  It could wake up a dozing person with a sharp bump. 

Oh, the engineers will solve this no doubt.  Right.

Are you serious? It seems like a small problem to solve, besides which, as ml1 points out, there might not be any more speed humps.

if you've actually seen today's technology in action, you'd be chuckling at the "speed bumps" thing. Tesla is already light years away from a speed bump concern. These cars actually detect traffic around you and drive to that. It's not passive at all and it's not just a cute little car that can nicely parallel park. They quite literally eliminate the need for the driver. Go test drive a Tesla so you see what we mean.

Perception is part of the issue. I had read in the Economist a while ago (but am too lazy to search for the link) that for some time now it has been technically possible to have a fully automated passenger airplane. In many ways it is an easier task than driving since the path is, except if something goes wrong, cleared for the plane. Much of a flight is now on autopilot anyway. There is a big shortage of trained pilots. But how many people would be willing to get on a plane that will be flown without a trained pilot on board?

Found the article I remembered. It is from 5 years ago. So some of its expectations are a bit out of date. 

https://www.economist.com/news...

Driverless Ubers are already on the road in Pittsburgh. My son rode in one last week. he had no concerns 

I believe there was a person in the drive seat poised to take over if needed. The tests does not allow the cars to be operated with no one in the drivers seat.

Gilgul said:

I believe there was a person in the drive seat poised to take over if needed. The tests does not allow the cars to be operated with no one in the drivers seat.

That is correct. But unless the system fails the driver does nothing to operate the vehicle 

That is the psychological hurdle that people will need to make. Getting into a car with no one in the driver seat.

the idea of a pilot shortage makes me shake my head.  That used to be a great job.  Now the airlines treat pilots like garbage and then complain about a shortage.

Gilgul said:

That is the psychological hurdle that people will need to make. Getting into a car with no one in the driver seat.

Very true. The fear seems so well-founded though.  How often are planes grounded or delayed due to mechanical trouble?  Or trains cancelled for the same reason? How often does some warning light show up on the car's dashboard indicating a problem?

It just doesn't seem in our nature to give up so much control to a machine that can be so dangerous.

Even if you tell someone that human drivers crash 1% of the time and driverless cars crash 0.1% of the time, aren't people going to thing that they can influence things and be part of the 99% that don't crash rather than have no influence and be part of the 0.1% who do?

Many people I know, myself included, are not even that comfortable with cruise control.

I can tell you technology or not, it freaked me out to the point I asked the Tesla guy to stop and I would not like using it day to day. Too much of s control freak and I like driving. 

Would the banning of driven cars constitute a taking under the Fifth Amendment?

seems to be coming sooner than some think/wish: http://m.gulfnews.com/news/uae...

Steve said:

Would the banning of driven cars constitute a taking under the Fifth Amendment?

At the risk of repeating myself, I think it will come about not via an outright ban, but by the insurance market making it effectively cost-prohibitive to use a human-driven car, at some point in time (i.e. once the technology has been developed to the point that driverless cars are critically safer than driven ones).

So then it's not a driverless car.

ml1 said:

Gilgul said:

I believe there was a person in the drive seat poised to take over if needed. The tests does not allow the cars to be operated with no one in the drivers seat.

That is correct. But unless the system fails the driver does nothing to operate the vehicle