The Rose Garden and White House happenings: Ready, set, go!

Smedley said:

The last president who presided over persistently high inflation was Jimmy Carter and we all know how that went.

Annual inflation rates during Carter’s term were 6.5%, 7.6%, 11.3% and 13.6%. The current annual inflation rate is 4.3%.

ETA: That’s about where it was under George H.W. Bush. I don’t recall how that went.


ridski said:

The response from Garland and the FBI is also at the specific request of the National School Board Association. They didn't just decide to wade in by themselves.

Yeah that's a good additional point.


PVW said:

ridski said:

The response from Garland and the FBI is also at the specific request of the National School Board Association. They didn't just decide to wade in by themselves.

Yeah that's a good additional point.

 It’s more than merely an “additional point”. It’s the major factual context disregarded in that entire piece of cr@p from Bari Weiss that was posted here.


DaveSchmidt said:

Annual inflation rates during Carter’s term were 6.5%, 7.6%, 11.3% and 13.6%. The current annual inflation rate is 4.3%.

ETA: That’s about where it was under George H.W. Bush. I don’t recall how that went.

 I think it likely will come down to how quickly and successfully the supply chains can untangle themselves. As DB will I'm sure point out, inflation per MMT is when we overshoot the productive capacity of the economy (though as Paul Krugman might respond, that's not MMT, that's just regular old economics).

DB might also point out that we could likely also address this by simply raising taxes on the rich to remove some of that excess money and so reduce inflation that way. That'd likely work, but I'd say "wait for the supply chains to fix themselves" has a higher chance of happening, and of happening quickly, than getting an inflation-fighting tax hike through Congress.


Smedley said:

ml1 said:

Smedley said:

Ml1 and db: why do you think Biden's ratings have gone and stayed underwater? And perhaps even follow up w something on what can be done about it, as Jim M suggested. 

All I've heard from you so far is "unfair media coverage of Afghanistan". Gotta do better than that. 

It's easy to just s--- on what I say all the time, and dismiss what MSM says, but as the smartest guys in the room, that must get boring for you. How about offering some real substance and value-add rather than defer then criticize, lather rinse repeat.  

 this is actually not true with regard to me.  I read the article you directed us to, and pulled out a few things that I thought were worthwhile explanations.  Not original I admit, but I think it's better than pulling one's own biased opinion out of one's ****.

 You criticize me for what you see as parroting MSM, but then your reply is literally copy/pasted from a 538 article. 

you parrot a lot of dumb conventional wisdom stuff though. 


nohero said:

 It’s more than merely an “additional point”. It’s the major factual context disregarded in that entire piece of cr@p from Bari Weiss that was posted here.

 People are physically assaulting teachers and school administrators. Even if Garland on his own initiative had offered assistance I think that would have been appropriate. The fact that it was in response to a request makes it even less controversial, to your point. But in any case, mtierney seems upset at the idea of anyone sharing her political views facing consequences for violent threats and attacks.


PVW said:

I think it likely will come down to how quickly and successfully the supply chains can untangle themselves.

And in the context of how inflation affects voters’ judgment of the sitting president, I think it’s hard to draw historical comparisons like Smedley’s reference to Carter. Inflation was much higher during Carter’s term; the 4% for Bush was on the downside of two decades of high inflation, while the current 4% may be magnified next to the past 30 years of little or no inflation; the current inflation is, as you note, intertwined with clogged supply chains; etc.


Smedley said: 

 So you're fine with the failed gotcha, but you have a problem with the calling out of the failed gotcha. 

Gotcha. 

I couldn't care less, it's just **** tedious.


https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/that-one-side-would-like-to-utterly

Kind of like the political climate in the Rose Garden. Poo-poo, degrade, misconstrue the message, and the messenger. Bobble heads nod in unison.


mtierney said:

https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/that-one-side-would-like-to-utterly

Kind of like the political climate in the Rose Garden. Poo-poo, degrade, misconstrue the message, and the messenger. Bobble heads nod in unison.

 There's plenty of debate, even disunion, amongst Americans who remain committed to democracy. Even within the smaller subgroup there of those who identify as part of the political left, as Boer does, and as your link demonstrates. But that group excludes you, and your linking to Boer's piece is straight up concern trolling, as you don't care. And no, I'm not misconstruing your message, as you've had several opportunities here to defend yourself and have not taken the chance. Literally all you have to say is "Donald Trump was wrong to try to undermine the election, wrong to continue doing so, and those supporting him are also wrong, especially when they resort to violence."

Can you say that? It doesn't require you agreeing with any liberal or even Democratic ideas whatsoever. Liz Cheney is no liberal. Nor is Mitt Romney. Nor is Ben Sasse. Nor is Adam Kinzinger. Nor are the handful of other actual conservatives who've dared to stand up against the grotesqueries of Trumpism.

If you can't do that -- if you can't straightforwardly condemn the continuing attacks upon our democracy led by Trump and supported by his followers, then I haven't misconstrued your message in the least.



Smedley said:

 Fair enough. IMO there are two primary reasons for Biden's underwater approval rating. (1) Given that his decline is most pronounced among independents, I think there is some perception that Biden is veering too far left, and that his presidency has been a bait-and-switch, ie he ran as a centrist but he's governing as a liberal.  And the other issue is (2) real questions about the competence of the administration (e.g. Afghanistan) and the leadership of the president himself. On that last point, for example, I think given the size and importance of BBB, Biden should be out there all the time talking about it in great detail and giving town hall and pressers to sell the plan. Obama would be doing that. But instead, Biden's pretty much invisible and there is a leadership vacuum. Not going there as to why that is, but suffice to say that many people expect more from the president. 

As far as what might be done -- not sure about that right now, but this is a start.

Why do you think the approval rating is underwater?

The BBB plan is pretty popular among voters already. Why should Biden waste his time selling it to people who are already sold? Doesn't seem like a good use of his time. Do you somehow think that town halls are going to move people like Manchin and Sinema?


ridski said:

Smedley said: 

 So you're fine with the failed gotcha, but you have a problem with the calling out of the failed gotcha. 

Gotcha. 

I couldn't care less, it's just **** tedious.

But obvs you could care less given you often respond. Not responding would support the notion that you couldn’t care less.


drummerboy said:


Smedley said:

 Fair enough. IMO there are two primary reasons for Biden's underwater approval rating. (1) Given that his decline is most pronounced among independents, I think there is some perception that Biden is veering too far left, and that his presidency has been a bait-and-switch, ie he ran as a centrist but he's governing as a liberal.  And the other issue is (2) real questions about the competence of the administration (e.g. Afghanistan) and the leadership of the president himself. On that last point, for example, I think given the size and importance of BBB, Biden should be out there all the time talking about it in great detail and giving town hall and pressers to sell the plan. Obama would be doing that. But instead, Biden's pretty much invisible and there is a leadership vacuum. Not going there as to why that is, but suffice to say that many people expect more from the president. 

As far as what might be done -- not sure about that right now, but this is a start.

Why do you think the approval rating is underwater?

The BBB plan is pretty popular among voters already. Why should Biden waste his time selling it to people who are already sold? Doesn't seem like a good use of his time. Do you somehow think that town halls are going to move people like Manchin and Sinema?

 There’s a giant plan out there that’s currently in legislative limbo, and many Americans don’t know what the heck is in it. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-build-back-better-americans-dont-know-opinion-poll/

Sorry but I don’t think it would be a waste of the president’s time to be out there selling it.


Smedley said:

 There’s a giant plan out there that’s currently in legislative limbo, and many Americans don’t know what the heck is in it. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-build-back-better-americans-dont-know-opinion-poll/

Sorry but I don’t think it would be a waste of the president’s time to be out there selling it.

 Always be closing.


Smedley said:

drummerboy said:


Smedley said:

 Fair enough. IMO there are two primary reasons for Biden's underwater approval rating. (1) Given that his decline is most pronounced among independents, I think there is some perception that Biden is veering too far left, and that his presidency has been a bait-and-switch, ie he ran as a centrist but he's governing as a liberal.  And the other issue is (2) real questions about the competence of the administration (e.g. Afghanistan) and the leadership of the president himself. On that last point, for example, I think given the size and importance of BBB, Biden should be out there all the time talking about it in great detail and giving town hall and pressers to sell the plan. Obama would be doing that. But instead, Biden's pretty much invisible and there is a leadership vacuum. Not going there as to why that is, but suffice to say that many people expect more from the president. 

As far as what might be done -- not sure about that right now, but this is a start.

Why do you think the approval rating is underwater?

The BBB plan is pretty popular among voters already. Why should Biden waste his time selling it to people who are already sold? Doesn't seem like a good use of his time. Do you somehow think that town halls are going to move people like Manchin and Sinema?

 There’s a giant plan out there that’s currently in legislative limbo, and many Americans don’t know what the heck is in it. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-build-back-better-americans-dont-know-opinion-poll/

Sorry but I don’t think it would be a waste of the president’s time to be out there selling it.

The people support it. What would be the point of selling it to them? What would Biden gain?

(he asks again since it was ignored the first time)



drummerboy said:

The people support it. What would be the point of selling it to them? What would Biden gain?

There’s support that lets you answer in the affirmative when a pollster describes discrete proposals from a legislative package that you don’t know much about. And then there’s support that gets to you write or call your congressional representatives and organize or attend rallies. I presume that Smedley sees some room for Biden to gain more of the latter kind of support.


DaveSchmidt said:

There’s support that lets you answer in the affirmative when a pollster describes discrete proposals from a legislative package that you don’t know much about. And then there’s support that gets to you write or call your congressional representatives and organize or attend rallies. I presume that Smedley sees some room for Biden to gain more of the latter kind of support.

 and why would you presume that?

also, can you name a previous Presidential barnstorming trip for legislation that has caused people to march in the streets? (I know you love to google)


drummerboy said:

 and why would you presume that?

also, can you name a previous Presidential barnstorming trip for legislation that has caused people to march in the streets? (I know you love to google)

Because that distinction makes sense to me.

No, I can’t. 


there are only two people in the U.S. who need to be sold on BBB.  And they don't seem to be paying attention to their constituents who have confronted them on it.  Maybe Biden should personally visit a Manchin and a yacht.



drummerboy said:

Smedley said:

drummerboy said:


Smedley said:

 Fair enough. IMO there are two primary reasons for Biden's underwater approval rating. (1) Given that his decline is most pronounced among independents, I think there is some perception that Biden is veering too far left, and that his presidency has been a bait-and-switch, ie he ran as a centrist but he's governing as a liberal.  And the other issue is (2) real questions about the competence of the administration (e.g. Afghanistan) and the leadership of the president himself. On that last point, for example, I think given the size and importance of BBB, Biden should be out there all the time talking about it in great detail and giving town hall and pressers to sell the plan. Obama would be doing that. But instead, Biden's pretty much invisible and there is a leadership vacuum. Not going there as to why that is, but suffice to say that many people expect more from the president. 

As far as what might be done -- not sure about that right now, but this is a start.

Why do you think the approval rating is underwater?

The BBB plan is pretty popular among voters already. Why should Biden waste his time selling it to people who are already sold? Doesn't seem like a good use of his time. Do you somehow think that town halls are going to move people like Manchin and Sinema?

 There’s a giant plan out there that’s currently in legislative limbo, and many Americans don’t know what the heck is in it. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-build-back-better-americans-dont-know-opinion-poll/

Sorry but I don’t think it would be a waste of the president’s time to be out there selling it.

The people support it. What would be the point of selling it to them? What would Biden gain?

(he asks again since it was ignored the first time)

 How strong can the support be given that "Only 10% of Americans describe themselves as knowing a lot of specific things about what's in the Build Back Better plan, and a majority admit to either not knowing specifics or anything at all." ?


Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

Smedley said:

drummerboy said:


Smedley said:

 Fair enough. IMO there are two primary reasons for Biden's underwater approval rating. (1) Given that his decline is most pronounced among independents, I think there is some perception that Biden is veering too far left, and that his presidency has been a bait-and-switch, ie he ran as a centrist but he's governing as a liberal.  And the other issue is (2) real questions about the competence of the administration (e.g. Afghanistan) and the leadership of the president himself. On that last point, for example, I think given the size and importance of BBB, Biden should be out there all the time talking about it in great detail and giving town hall and pressers to sell the plan. Obama would be doing that. But instead, Biden's pretty much invisible and there is a leadership vacuum. Not going there as to why that is, but suffice to say that many people expect more from the president. 

As far as what might be done -- not sure about that right now, but this is a start.

Why do you think the approval rating is underwater?

The BBB plan is pretty popular among voters already. Why should Biden waste his time selling it to people who are already sold? Doesn't seem like a good use of his time. Do you somehow think that town halls are going to move people like Manchin and Sinema?

 There’s a giant plan out there that’s currently in legislative limbo, and many Americans don’t know what the heck is in it. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-build-back-better-americans-dont-know-opinion-poll/

Sorry but I don’t think it would be a waste of the president’s time to be out there selling it.

The people support it. What would be the point of selling it to them? What would Biden gain?

(he asks again since it was ignored the first time)

 How strong can the support be given that "Only 10% of Americans describe themselves as knowing a lot of specific things about what's in the Build Back Better plan, and a majority admit to either not knowing specifics or anything at all." ?

 yet again, so what? If they're more knowledgeable, will that make Manchin and Sinema easier to get as votes? Because that's the only thing that matters.

(I think we're in a loop now. no way out)


Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

Smedley said:

drummerboy said:


Smedley said:

 Fair enough. IMO there are two primary reasons for Biden's underwater approval rating. (1) Given that his decline is most pronounced among independents, I think there is some perception that Biden is veering too far left, and that his presidency has been a bait-and-switch, ie he ran as a centrist but he's governing as a liberal.  And the other issue is (2) real questions about the competence of the administration (e.g. Afghanistan) and the leadership of the president himself. On that last point, for example, I think given the size and importance of BBB, Biden should be out there all the time talking about it in great detail and giving town hall and pressers to sell the plan. Obama would be doing that. But instead, Biden's pretty much invisible and there is a leadership vacuum. Not going there as to why that is, but suffice to say that many people expect more from the president. 

As far as what might be done -- not sure about that right now, but this is a start.

Why do you think the approval rating is underwater?

The BBB plan is pretty popular among voters already. Why should Biden waste his time selling it to people who are already sold? Doesn't seem like a good use of his time. Do you somehow think that town halls are going to move people like Manchin and Sinema?

 There’s a giant plan out there that’s currently in legislative limbo, and many Americans don’t know what the heck is in it. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-build-back-better-americans-dont-know-opinion-poll/

Sorry but I don’t think it would be a waste of the president’s time to be out there selling it.

The people support it. What would be the point of selling it to them? What would Biden gain?

(he asks again since it was ignored the first time)

 How strong can the support be given that "Only 10% of Americans describe themselves as knowing a lot of specific things about what's in the Build Back Better plan, and a majority admit to either not knowing specifics or anything at all." ?

 I follow politics pretty closely and if I'm honest, I couldn't tell you a lot of specific things in the bill.  How many items in it do you know without doing a google search?


ml1 said:

 I follow politics pretty closely and if I'm honest, I couldn't tell you a lot of specific things in the bill.  How many items in it do you know without doing a google search?

 I was thinking the same thing. I think I can name 4 off the top of my head.

child care support
climate change measures
paid family leave
free college
???


Agree with Smedley, Dave, and PVW.

“The people” support a vaguery. 

They may support certain elements more than others if educated. Given that it is clearly going to be pared down to satisfy Manchin at least, wouldn’t it be helpful to know where the strongest support lies so you’d know where to cut?

I, for one, strongly support the child care initiatives. “Free” college less so.


Wasn't the "barnstorm the country to raise so much support even Joe Manchin has to support it" the Sanders theory of change? I'm amused by the fact that in this instance it's the more Sanders-skeptical folks arguing that Biden needs to do more selling and the more Sanders-supporting ones suggesting that's not necessary ;-)

More substantively, though, I think jimmurphy's comment gets more to the practical part. I still remain very skeptical that there's actually a hidden progressive majority in the electorate that just needs to be properly engaged to unleash irresistible pressure on recalcitrant legislators, but the work of really selling the agenda to find just where support can best be grown and where it can't, particularly in the context of needing to trim the agenda to get through a vote (as is happening now), is well worth it.


Also, a lot of this is just the legislative calendar. Some version of the BBB plan will pass. It'll happen via reconciliation. It won't happen until the actual deadline.


PVW said:

the work of really selling the agenda to find just where support can best be grown and where it can't, particularly in the context of needing to trim the agenda to get through a vote (as is happening now), is well worth it.

 Agreed. Plus it would demonstrate transparency in government and strong leadership, concepts that I think we can all agree are positive.  


ml1 said:

Maybe Biden should personally visit a Manchin and a yacht.

 I see what you did there. Thurston would be proud.


jimmurphy said:

ml1 said:

Maybe Biden should personally visit a Manchin and a yacht.

 I see what you did there. Thurston would be proud.

 Elmer J


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