The Rose Garden and White House happenings: Listening to voters’ concerns
Smedley said:
Ml1 and db: why do you think Biden's ratings have gone and stayed underwater? And perhaps even follow up w something on what can be done about it, as Jim M suggested.
All I've heard from you so far is "unfair media coverage of Afghanistan". Gotta do better than that.
It's easy to just s--- on what I say all the time, and dismiss what MSM says, but as the smartest guys in the room, that must get boring for you. How about offering some real substance and value-add rather than defer then criticize, lather rinse repeat.
this is actually not true with regard to me. I read the article you directed us to, and pulled out a few things that I thought were worthwhile explanations. Not original I admit, but I think it's better than pulling one's own biased opinion out of one's ****.
Smedley said:
Fair enough. IMO there are two primary reasons for Biden's underwater approval rating. (1) Given that his decline is most pronounced among independents, I think there is some perception that Biden is veering too far left, and that his presidency has been a bait-and-switch, ie he ran as a centrist but he's governing as a liberal. And the other issue is (2) real questions about the competence of the administration (e.g. Afghanistan) and the leadership of the president himself. On that last point, for example, I think given the size and importance of BBB, Biden should be out there all the time talking about it in great detail and giving town hall and pressers to sell the plan. Obama would be doing that. But instead, Biden's pretty much invisible and there is a leadership vacuum. Not going there as to why that is, but suffice to say that many people expect more from the president.
As far as what might be done -- not sure about that right now, but this is a start.
Why do you think the approval rating is underwater?
1) The Afghanistan pullout didn’t go as well as it could have. Biden was handed a bag of **** to deal with and did the best he could, but the President gets blamed for things like that. Not sure what more can be done. We’re out and they’re doing their best to extract more Afghanis.
2) Inflation, which of course has nothing to do with Biden. As to what to do about it, a lot of the problem seems to be supply chain -related. Would seem that study and discussion of streamlining customs procedures might address the issue.
3) A stalled agenda, which is totally Congress’ fault. Given the numbers in Congress, tough spot. I agree with you that more of a public push by Biden to explain the plans would help.
4) Covid. People thought things would be better than they are by now. Republican anti-vaxxers and Politicians are to blame. Mandates seem to be turning the tide, but of course will further harden those Rs, not that they were able to be turned.
another aspect I referenced was the inelasticity of approval ratings nowadays. Biden will almost certainly never go above 55% approval. The days of a president getting 80-90% approval like W Bush did are almost certainly behind us for the foreseeable future. If an attack the magnitude of 9/11 happened today, Biden still wouldn't get the approval of GOP voters. In fact, right wing media would blame him for the attack, whether that was true or not.
If we got Nate Silver here and asked him to bet his yearly salary that a presidential approval rating will be just as good a predictor of the next midterm as it has been historically, I wonder what his response would be.
Smedley said:
The whole premise of your gotcha attempt, even with the whiz-bang italics, is ridiculous.
I can believe the top-line poll, which is a cold hard number, and have my own opinions on what's behind the numbers, which is the part with some speculation and guesswork involved.
According to this Politico opinion, Covid is not the main cause for Biden poll numbers…..
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/11/biden-coronavirus-pandemic-515764
When you think back, Biden’s first four months as president were spent in his basement in Delaware, so his drop in the polls was even more swift. A major miscall was his condemnation of the Border Patrol action at Del Rio. Shooting from the hip to look tough — without the facts — made him look foolish and petulant. Some 15K migrants forcing entry into the US were being contained by mounted patrol officers in 100+ degree temperatures.
The Afghanistan debacle was 100% Biden’s lack of leadership. He acquiesced and backed off a 20 year war for all the wrong reasons, leaving Americans and those who helped them behind.
Last, but certainly not least, is the $3.5T budget which has most Americans heads spinning. The shady bait and switch trick with the bipartisan stimulus bill held back to piggy back on the Bonanza Bill was juvenile politicking. The ZERO COST kool-aid fantasy doesn’t work, either.
The optics told the stories.
"Biden’s first four months as president were spent in his basement in Delaware"
Are you completely sure about that, mtierney?
Like, completely sure?
Like, from January 21st to April 21st 2021 he didn't enter the White House once?
mtierney said:
According to this Politico opinion, Covid is not the main cause for Biden poll numbers…..
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/11/biden-coronavirus-pandemic-515764
When you think back, Biden’s first four months as president were spent in his basement in Delaware, so his drop in the polls was even more swift. His major mistake was his condemnation of the Border Patrol action at Del Rio. Shooting from the hip to look tough — without the facts — made him look foolish and petulant. Some 15K migrants forcing entry into the US were being contained by mounted patrol officers in 100+ degree temperatures.
The Afghanistan debacle was 100% Biden’s lack of leadership. He acquiesced and backed off a 20 year war for all the wrong reasons, leaving Americans and those who helped them behind.
The optics told the stories.
He quarantined during the campaign, not his time in office. Are you somehow not aware of that?.
Trump pulled out of Afghanistan, not Biden. Are you somehow not aware of that?
mtierney said:
According to this Politico opinion, Covid is not the main cause for Biden poll numbers…..
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/11/biden-coronavirus-pandemic-515764
When you think back, Biden’s first four months as president were spent in his basement in Delaware, so his drop in the polls was even more swift. A major miscall was his condemnation of the Border Patrol action at Del Rio. Shooting from the hip to look tough — without the facts — made him look foolish and petulant. Some 15K migrants forcing entry into the US were being contained by mounted patrol officers in 100+ degree temperatures.
The Afghanistan debacle was 100% Biden’s lack of leadership. He acquiesced and backed off a 20 year war for all the wrong reasons, leaving Americans and those who helped them behind.
Last, but certainly not least, is the $3.5T budget which has most Americans heads spinning. The shady bait and switch trick with the bipartisan stimulus bill held back to piggy back on the Bonanza Bill was juvenile politicking. The ZERO COST kool-aid fantasy doesn’t work, either.
The optics told the stories.
what a mish mosh of mosh mish
Without weighing in on how predictive I think approval rating polls are (especially this far out), I'll say that my mental model for how I expect approval polls to is is roughly:
- Are you a Republican? If yes, then the only thing that matters is whether the current president is also a Republican. If so, you approve. If not, you disapprove.
- Assuming you answered no to the first question, do your personal circumstances feel like they're going pretty well? If yes, then you probably approve of the president. If not, then you don't.
- Wrinkle to the previous question -- if the current president is a Democrat and you are a Democrat, then add a bit of a cushion, but not too much (Democrats aren't as -- lets be charitable and say 'loyal' -- to their presidents).
That's pretty much it. Doesn't give an exact number, but gives a general direction.
PVW said:
Without weighing in on how predictive I think approval rating polls are (especially this far out), I'll say that my mental model for how I expect approval polls to is is roughly:
- Are you a Republican? If yes, then the only thing that matters is whether the current president is also a Republican. If so, you approve. If not, you disapprove.
- Assuming you answered no to the first question, do your personal circumstances feel like they're going pretty well? If yes, then you probably approve of the president. If not, then you don't.
- Wrinkle to the previous question -- if the current president is a Democrat and you are a Democrat, then add a bit of a cushion, but not too much (Democrats aren't as -- lets be charitable and say 'loyal' -- to their presidents).
That's pretty much it. Doesn't give an exact number, but gives a general direction.
yes. I think there are probably some Democrats and left-leaning independents who might give a GOP president some benefit of the doubt. But very few Republican voters at this point are going to say they approve of Joe Biden's performance. Something like 35% of respondents in any recent poll say they strongly disapprove of Biden's performance. How is it rational, after less than 9 months to "strongly" disapprove of anything Biden has done, unless they already had their minds made up before he became president.
mtierney said:
According to this Politico opinion, Covid is not the main cause for Biden poll numbers…..
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/11/biden-coronavirus-pandemic-515764
When you think back, Biden’s first four months as president were spent in his basement in Delaware, so his drop in the polls was even more swift. A major miscall was his condemnation of the Border Patrol action at Del Rio. Shooting from the hip to look tough — without the facts — made him look foolish and petulant. Some 15K migrants forcing entry into the US were being contained by mounted patrol officers in 100+ degree temperatures.
The Afghanistan debacle was 100% Biden’s lack of leadership. He acquiesced and backed off a 20 year war for all the wrong reasons, leaving Americans and those who helped them behind.
Last, but certainly not least, is the $3.5T budget which has most Americans heads spinning. The shady bait and switch trick with the bipartisan stimulus bill held back to piggy back on the Bonanza Bill was juvenile politicking. The ZERO COST kool-aid fantasy doesn’t work, either.
The optics told the stories.
as absurd and untrue as all of that is, it actually explains perfectly what's going on with Biden's approval rating. Anyone who consumes the same media as you has ingested the same steady diet of misinformation and propaganda and believes what you believe. It doesn't matter how far a detour you've taken from actual reality, that's your reality, and the reality of tens of millions of people who disapprove of Biden's performance. If you believe all that nonsense, OF COURSE you disapprove of the job Biden is doing.
ridski said:
"Biden’s first four months as president were spent in his basement in Delaware"
Are you completely sure about that, mtierney?
Like, completely sure?
Like, from January 21st to April 21st 2021 he didn't enter the White House once?
dude, he has a body double to go in and out of the White House. Don't be so naive.
If you're regularly discussing politics online, you're far more plugged in to what's current in the political news than most voters, and as a consequence we (yes, I'm part of this group) run the danger of over-weighing events. Some of these events are pretty important, objectively, but even here, most of the time there's much less awareness and much less impact on the electorate than we news junkies expect.
The electorate is millions of people. Think of it as a very large, generally slow moving creature with thick skin and poor eyesight. Whatever people like us are yammering about online at any given time, its impact is pretty muted by the time it spreads throughout the entire body politic.
ml1 said:
yes. I think there are probably some Democrats and left-leaning independents who might give a GOP president some benefit of the doubt. But very few Republican voters at this point are going to say they approve of Joe Biden's performance. Something like 35% of respondents in any recent poll say they strongly disapprove of Biden's performance. How is it rational, after less than 9 months to "strongly" disapprove of anything Biden has done, unless they already had their minds made up before he became president.
it might not be rational, but considering that something like 80% of R's think that Biden stole the election, he's not gonna get much benefit of the doubt from them.
PVW said:
If you're regularly discussing politics online, you're far more plugged in to what's current in the political news than most voters, and as a consequence we (yes, I'm part of this group) run the danger of over-weighing events. Some of these events are pretty important, objectively, but even here, most of the time there's much less awareness and much less impact on the electorate than we news junkies expect.
The electorate is millions of people. Think of it as a very large, generally slow moving creature with thick skin and poor eyesight. Whatever people like us are yammering about online at any given time, its impact is pretty muted by the time it spreads throughout the entire body politic.
so you're saying that presidential approval polls may be a lagging indicator? ;-)
The polls are currently all over the place. and to some extent, those few that screen for Likely Voters have Biden lower than those of all persons. Not for nothing, but the Likely Voter screening method is usually each pollster's "secret sauce." Often that's where the variation comes in, depending on how strict they are on their definitions. Personally, if I was running a poll right now more than 3 years ahead of the next presidential election, I wouldn't screen for likely voters. It's hard enough to predict voting likelihood 3 months or even 3 weeks ahead. Three years? Balderdash!
mtierney said:
All over the map…
good job. You've chosen one of the most historically inaccurate polls on the planet.
ml1 said:
so you're saying that presidential approval polls may be a lagging indicator? ;-)
Kind of, though "lagging indicator" still suggests a deeper level of engagement than I think is the case. I think the question "do you approve of the job the president is doing" is, functionally, nearly equivalent to "do you feel things are going pretty well for you right now?".
As an example -- the current fights around the budget. No one cares about the debt. No one even cares about the threat of a government shut down. Now if the government shuts down and people can't go to national parks and can't get their passports processed and are otherwise impeded and prevented from doing the various things they need to get done, then they'll care. And they'll blame... well everyone mostly. And then once things open up again largely forget about it by the time of the next election.
So if one's asking about approval ratings from the perspective of trying to gauge possible electoral fortunes, I suppose the question one's really asking is, how much ability does a president have to make people feel things are going pretty well on the day they walk into the voting booth or mail in their ballot? (mtierney is excused from participating in this discussion as she's a member of the party that believes how people vote should have no bearing on who holds office).
I brought this up a day or so ago, and as a former PTA president, i was alarmed that we have lost our focus as to what’s happening in our own backyards. The FBI! Seriously?
https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/why-are-moms-like-me-being-called
from the article:
“While local and state law enforcement agencies are working with public school officials in several communities to prevent further disruptions to educational services and school district operations, law enforcement officials in some jurisdictions need assistance – including help with monitoring the threat levels. As these threats and acts of violence have become more prevalent – during public school board meetings, via documented threats transmitted through the U.S. Postal Service, through social media and other online platforms, and around personal properties – NSBA respectfully asks that a joint collaboration among federal law enforcement agencies, state and local law enforcement, and with public school officials be undertaken to focus on these threats.2 NSBA specifically solicits the expertise and resources of the U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Secret Service, and its National Threat Assessment Center3 regarding the level of risk to public schoolchildren, educators, board members, and facilities/campuses. We also request the assistance of the U.S. Postal Inspection Service to intervene against threatening letters and cyberbullying attacks that have been transmitted to students, school board members, district administrators, and other educators.
“As these acts of malice, violence, and threats against public school officials have increased, the classification of these heinous actions could be the equivalent to a form of domestic terrorism and hate crimes. As such, NSBA requests a joint expedited review by the U.S. Departments of Justice, Education, and Homeland Security, along with the appropriate training, coordination, investigations, and enforcement mechanisms from the FBI, including any technical assistance necessary from, and state and local coordination with, its National Security Branch and Counterterrorism Division, as well as any other federal agency with relevant jurisdictional authority and oversight. Additionally, NSBA requests that such review examine appropriate enforceable actions against these crimes and acts of violence under the Gun-Free School Zones Act, the PATRIOT Act in regards to domestic terrorism, the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act, the Violent Interference with Federally Protected Rights statute, the Conspiracy Against Rights statute, an Executive Order to enforce all applicable federal laws for the
“He further announced specialized training for board members to “aid in the investigation and prosecution of these crimes” and, more worryingly, the creation of a task force composed of FBI and Justice Department representatives to “determine how federal enforcement tools can be used to prosecute these crimes.” The FBI’s clear message to parents is that the NSBA is on the right track.
mtierney said:
I brought this up a day or so ago, and as a former PTA president, i was alarmed that we have lost our focus as to what’s happening in our own backyards. The FBI! Seriously?
https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/why-are-moms-like-me-being-called
from the article:
“While local and state law enforcement agencies are working with public school officials in several communities to prevent further disruptions to educational services and school district operations, law enforcement officials in some jurisdictions need assistance – including help with monitoring the threat levels. As these threats and acts of violence have become more prevalent – during public school board meetings, via documented threats transmitted through the U.S. Postal Service, through social media and other online platforms, and around personal properties – NSBA respectfully asks that a joint collaboration among federal law enforcement agencies, state and local law enforcement, and with public school officials be undertaken to focus on these threats.2 NSBA specifically solicits the expertise and resources of the U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Secret Service, and its National Threat Assessment Center3 regarding the level of risk to public schoolchildren, educators, board members, and facilities/campuses. We also request the assistance of the U.S. Postal Inspection Service to intervene against threatening letters and cyberbullying attacks that have been transmitted to students, school board members, district administrators, and other educators.
“As these acts of malice, violence, and threats against public school officials have increased, the classification of these heinous actions could be the equivalent to a form of domestic terrorism and hate crimes. As such, NSBA requests a joint expedited review by the U.S. Departments of Justice, Education, and Homeland Security, along with the appropriate training, coordination, investigations, and enforcement mechanisms from the FBI, including any technical assistance necessary from, and state and local coordination with, its National Security Branch and Counterterrorism Division, as well as any other federal agency with relevant jurisdictional authority and oversight. Additionally, NSBA requests that such review examine appropriate enforceable actions against these crimes and acts of violence under the Gun-Free School Zones Act, the PATRIOT Act in regards to domestic terrorism, the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act, the Violent Interference with Federally Protected Rights statute, the Conspiracy Against Rights statute, an Executive Order to enforce all applicable federal laws for the
Always a hard slog to get through the bilge you post, but as far as I can tell, the hope is to protect school board members - already doing the most thankless job on earth except maybe actually teaching - from explicit harassment and bullying. And Mtierney has a problem with that?
She posted it. DS replied, pointing quoting Garland as explaining that the FBI involvement is to "facilitate the discussion of strategies for addressing threats against school administrators, board members, teachers and staff, and will open dedicated lines of communication for threat reporting, assessment and response.”
I noted that it seemed unlikely for us to expect mtierney to care much about violence against school administrators, teachers, and staff given how little share cares about violence unless it's politically convenient for her to. She responded by showing how she only cares about violence when it's political convenient for her. And apparently, worried we haven't quite grasped this yet, has now just doubled down, showing how little she cares about violence against anyone her party had determined is an enemy.
I can guarantee that on the news sources that mt frequents, she has not seem any of the more frightening mobs that have converged on board meetings. Some of these anti-mask/vax/CRT people are lunatics.
drummerboy said:
I can guarantee that on the news sources that mt frequents, she has not seem any of the more frightening mobs that have converged on board meetings. Some of these anti-mask/vax/CRT people are lunatics.
You could post a representative story. It wouldn't matter. She doesn't care.
Watch. Retweet. When there’s no accountability for those who encouraged and supporting a mob that attacked our Capitol, you get this behavior from Hawley. But thank you @chrislhayes for providing these receipts. https://t.co/Qzn6YQhVyC
— Sherrilyn Ifill (@Sifill_LDF) October 6, 2021
PVW said:
She posted it. DS replied, pointing quoting Garland as explaining that the FBI involvement is to "facilitate the discussion of strategies for addressing threats against school administrators, board members, teachers and staff, and will open dedicated lines of communication for threat reporting, assessment and response.”
I noted that it seemed unlikely for us to expect mtierney to care much about violence against school administrators, teachers, and staff given how little share cares about violence unless it's politically convenient for her to. She responded by showing how she only cares about violence when it's political convenient for her. And apparently, worried we haven't quite grasped this yet, has now just doubled down, showing how little she cares about violence against anyone her party had determined is an enemy.
The response from Garland and the FBI is also at the specific request of the National School Board Association. They didn't just decide to wade in by themselves.
ridski said:
The response from Garland and the FBI is also at the specific request of the National School Board Association. They didn't just decide to wade in by themselves.
The National School Boards Association is a socialist entity seeking to indoctrinate children. Everybody knows that’s what government schools are about.
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
Ml1 and db: why do you think Biden's ratings have gone and stayed underwater? And perhaps even follow up w something on what can be done about it, as Jim M suggested.
All I've heard from you so far is "unfair media coverage of Afghanistan". Gotta do better than that.
It's easy to just s--- on what I say all the time, and dismiss what MSM says, but as the smartest guys in the room, that must get boring for you. How about offering some real substance and value-add rather than defer then criticize, lather rinse repeat.
this is actually not true with regard to me. I read the article you directed us to, and pulled out a few things that I thought were worthwhile explanations. Not original I admit, but I think it's better than pulling one's own biased opinion out of one's ****.
You criticize me for what you see as parroting MSM, but then your reply is literally copy/pasted from a 538 article.
jimmurphy said:
Smedley said:
Fair enough. IMO there are two primary reasons for Biden's underwater approval rating. (1) Given that his decline is most pronounced among independents, I think there is some perception that Biden is veering too far left, and that his presidency has been a bait-and-switch, ie he ran as a centrist but he's governing as a liberal. And the other issue is (2) real questions about the competence of the administration (e.g. Afghanistan) and the leadership of the president himself. On that last point, for example, I think given the size and importance of BBB, Biden should be out there all the time talking about it in great detail and giving town hall and pressers to sell the plan. Obama would be doing that. But instead, Biden's pretty much invisible and there is a leadership vacuum. Not going there as to why that is, but suffice to say that many people expect more from the president.
As far as what might be done -- not sure about that right now, but this is a start.
Why do you think the approval rating is underwater?
1) The Afghanistan pullout didn’t go as well as it could have. Biden was handed a bag of **** to deal with and did the best he could, but the President gets blamed for things like that. Not sure what more can be done. We’re out and they’re doing their best to extract more Afghanis.
2) Inflation, which of course has nothing to do with Biden. As to what to do about it, a lot of the problem seems to be supply chain -related. Would seem that study and discussion of streamlining customs procedures might address the issue.3) A stalled agenda, which is totally Congress’ fault. Given the numbers in Congress, tough spot. I agree with you that more of a public push by Biden to explain the plans would help.
4) Covid. People thought things would be better than they are by now. Republican anti-vaxxers and Politicians are to blame. Mandates seem to be turning the tide, but of course will further harden those Rs, not that they were able to be turned.
Fair points.
Yeah inflation is most definitely a factor that I didn't previously cite. It's friggin everywhere, it's a lot, and it is dispiriting -- if you haven't gotten a raise to at least keep up with inflation, you've effectively gotten a pay cut. Which is going to have a direct correlation on how you feel about the economy. The last president who presided over persistently high inflation was Jimmy Carter and we all know how that went.
ridski said:
Smedley said:
The whole premise of your gotcha attempt, even with the whiz-bang italics, is ridiculous.
I can believe the top-line poll, which is a cold hard number, and have my own opinions on what's behind the numbers, which is the part with some speculation and guesswork involved.
So you're fine with the failed gotcha, but you have a problem with the calling out of the failed gotcha.
Gotcha.
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As I have said multiple times, I could give a hoot about polling at this time, so why should I have to explain some number, which might not be terribly accurate in the first place?
Did you read the Sabato thread in nohero's post? You might learn something.