Weekend Weather Update Wed, Aug 21st

Wed, June 5th

Weekend weather outlook

Shaping up towards a very nice weekend, and even today's showers have likely slid back until tonight.

Showers/rain likely tonight. Thursday showers all day. On Thursday in particular, there is a lot of water in the system so, especially in the afternoon, a shower or two could be heavy for a while, and maybe even a rumble of thunder. Showers should end as the sun goes down.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday should be nice. No rain except a slight chance Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures and humidity will be moderate (high 70s and dry) throughout.

Thanks, Max!

Wednesday Weekend Weather

June 12th, 2024

Another nice weekend on the way

Today and tomorrow, clear and warm

Friday, hot with thunderstorms possible to likely in the afternoon and evening. Friday poses our first real chance of a severe thunderstorm, too.

Saturday and Sunday look positively delightful, warm but not hot, dry, with a gentle breeze.

max_weisenfeld said:

Wednesday Weekend Weather

June 12th, 2024

Another nice weekend on the way

Today and tomorrow, clear and warm

Friday, hot with thunderstorms possible to likely in the afternoon and evening. Friday poses our first real chance of a severe thunderstorm, too.

Saturday and Sunday look positively delightful, warm but not hot, dry, with a gentle breeze.

Thanks, Max!

June 19th 

The NWS Heat Advisory continues today with temperatures into the low 90⁰s and heat index forecast to reach 95⁰ 

There is also another Air Quality Alert today for Ozone from 11am until 11pm

Wednesday Weekend Forecast 

A cold front dips into the area Friday. Clouds and showers could bring some relief from the heat, and perhaps a rumble of thunder.  A Canadian low pushes a frontal system through over the weekend but here in NJ the effects are likely to only be humidity and a few showers. Temps Saturday in the 80⁰s but humidity could push the heat index back into the 90⁰s.  Hotter on Sunday. The chance of afternoon showers both days seems low at this time.

Weekend Weather

Thursday and Friday likely return to seasonable 80⁰s with slight chance of afternoon showers

Saturday and especially Sunday are looking more humid. Even though temps remain in the 80⁰s the humidity could make it feel quite dank. Afternoon showers and, especially on Sunday, thunderstorms are a possibility.

Friday June 28th

Weekend Update

Today, call in sick weather. Warm, dry, sunny with a nice breeze.

Saturday and Sunday likely to be a mixed bag. A pair of fronts moving through the area will make the weather changeable. Generally warmer and more humid, with afternoon showers likely on Saturday and possible Sunday, too. Both days could see the isolated thunderstorm, more likely on Sunday. Sunday quite humid and warmer.

Right now, the most likely rain period is late Saturday afternoon and evening

max_weisenfeld said:

Friday June 28th

Weekend Update

Today, call in sick weather. Warm, dry, sunny with a nice breeze.

Saturday and Sunday likely to be a mixed bag. A pair of fronts moving through the area will make the weather changeable. Generally warmer and more humid, with afternoon showers likely on Saturday and possible Sunday, too. Both days could see the isolated thunderstorm, more likely on Sunday. Sunday quite humid and warmer.

Right now, the most likely rain period is late Saturday afternoon and evening

It was such a beautiful day yesterday. No work for me... although I am retired with a small set-your-own-hours part-time job. 

Wednesday Weekend Weather Forecast (and July 4th)

July 3rd, 2024

Overall, seasonally warm, humid, and possible showers

Thursday, mid to upper 80⁰s and humid. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon becomes closer to 50/50 in the evening. Slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Friday, still some disagreement in the models as a front moves through (or stalls overhead) leading to either fairly clear and sunny weather or cloudy and more humid. A cloudy day would bring some instability with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the 80⁰s.

Saturday, overcast and very humid. Although temps still in the mid to upper 80⁰s the heat index is likely to be in the mid 90⁰s. Likely a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Sunday, nicer. Temps still in the high 80⁰s but low humidity and a breeze should make things more pleasant. Sunny and dry.

Friday July 5th

Heat Advisory

The NWS has issued a Heat Advisory starting at 11 this morning and running through tomorrow, Saturday, evening.

They could more accurately call it a humidity advisory.

Daytime highs might not even make 90⁰ but high humidity should drive the heat index into the upper 90⁰s both days. Slight chance of showers and thunder today, more of a chance tomorrow.

Sunday should be drier, just as warm but with a northwesterly breeze that should make things a bit more comfortable and little chance of rain.

ETA air quality monitors North and East of us are reading very high, and so expect localized air quality advisories. As of 7:30 this morning, we are *not* getting those very high readings more locally. With the prevailing wind from the south today, areas in Bergen and Passaic County seem most at risk, and thie city is likely to be bad as well.

Thanks, Max! It is oppressively humid today.

Wed. July 10th and Wednesday Maplewoodstock Weekend Weather

Heat Advisory again today

Hot and mostly hazy sun to partially overcast today. Temps in the low 90⁰s with heat index around 100⁰. Breezy and a bit gusty with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon as the remnants of Beryl move nearby to our west and later to our north.

Beryl will not bring any significant wind into our area, and while severe thunderstorms are unlikely, any storms that do occur could include brief heavy downpours due to the excess water in the air. Chance of flooding beyond the usual brief road and field ponding is slight to unlikely throughout the period.

Thursday and Friday should be cooler but still warm, with chance showers Thursday becoming likely showers Thursday night and all day Friday. Any shower could become a thunderstorm. As above, severe storms are not expected but brief downpours may occur.

Maplewoodstock Weekend Weather

Saturday, chance showers should become slight chance in the morning, then warm, dry, and partly cloudy with highs in the 80⁰s.

Sunday should clear up and become hot again, with highs likely in the low 90⁰s

Thur July 11th

Maplewoodstock Weekend Updated Weather

Today, slight chance morning showers followed by clearing and slightly cooler and dryer, highs and heat index should be in the upper 80⁰s

A slight shift in forecast track for the remnants of Beryl could keep the area mostly dry today but a different coastal low moves in from the south tonight and scattered showers could become widespread showers Friday. Chance of a thunderstorm or three, and if so, a downpour or two is possible. While widespread flooding is very unlikely, road ponding and field flooding is possible.

Saturday also likely showers and chance of a thunderstorm all day.

Sunday likely to clear up and turn hot again.

Not looking like an ideal M'stock weekend.  

Friday July 12th. Weekend Update

I wish I had better weekend weather news, but the rain is still very much in the forecast today and tomorrow. In fact, the NWS has increased forecast rainfall and issued a Flood Watch for today though Saturday morning.

Today and tomorrow we have the privilege of having a system move through our area twice, once today from east to west and again overnight or in the early hours Saturday back from west to east. Each pass is likely to bring intermittant showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms. Showers likely today, especially this afternoon and tonight. Some showers could include thunderstorms and some could include heavy downpours. Total rainfall over the two days could exceed two inches in areas where thunderstorms occur, and this could lead to rapid small stream flooding in addition to road ponding and field flooding. While this is not an Ida level event by any measure, caution should be exercised during and after downpours. Flood watch details below. FWIW, this is not associated with the remnants of Beryl, which have passed to out north.

Rain should end sometime Saturday midday or afternoon.

Temperatures during this period will be a touch cooler, with highs in the mid 80⁰s, but quite humid, with heat index in the low 90⁰s.

Sunday the heat returns, and we might see heat advisory as temps will be in the 90⁰s again for at least the first half of next week.

Maplewoodstock weather:

Saturday starts rainy and then should clear up. Sunday sunny and hotter.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From the National Weather Service:

Flood Watch

National Weather Service New York NY

356 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, including the following

areas, Northern Fairfield and Southern Fairfield, northeast New

Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern

Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen,

Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union, and southeast

New York, including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn),

New York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern

Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland,

Southern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Westchester.

* WHEN...From noon EDT today through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur

in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to shift

through the area today through Saturday. Any thunderstorm

will have the potential to produce heavy downpours that may

lead to flooding. A total of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is

anticipated with locally higher amounts. The period for the

greatest threat of flooding is this afternoon through

Saturday morning, however, flooding will still be possible

Saturday afternoon.

- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood

Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared

to take action should flooding develop.

&&

Sat July 13th

A better outlook for Maplewoodstock

Today, showers ending by midday. High in the low to mid 80⁰s

Sunday, hot. High in the low 90⁰s with the heat index in the high 90⁰s

Monday and Tuesday, hit with a chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon or evening.

There is a Heat Advisory for Sunday through Tuesday. There is currently a Flood Watch in effect, but the risk of heavy rain has passed now and with it any real risk of flooding.

Wednesday July 17th

Heat Advisory, More Thunderstorms, and Wednesday Weekend Forecast

Today should be the last day of the Heat Advisory, with temps again in the high 90⁰s and heat index near or over 100⁰. Showers likely this afternoon and evening, similar to yesterday but with denser coverage so more hits and fewer near misses. Chance of a thunderstorm or two, slight chance of a sever thunderstorm.

Then temperatures and humidity abate somewhat, with highs and heat indexes in the upper 80⁰s through the weekend. Drier air and less heat significantly reduces the afternoon showers, to near zero, throughout the period. With a bit of luck you won't hear from me for days!

Wed July 24th

Wednesday Weekend Weather

Today and tomorrow, warm humid weather continues with chance of showers

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday should be warm, much less humid, and dry. Mostly sunny skies and a gentle breeze completes a very promising weekend picture

Thanks, Max!

Uploading an image for the front page to get rid of that radar image from June

Wed July 31st

Heat Advisory and Wednesday Weekend Weather

Friday, hot, showers likely afternoon and evening, chance of thunderstorms (especially in the evening), high 90⁰ with heat index 98⁰

Saturday, hot, showers and a thunderstorm likely in the afternoon and evening, high 90⁰ heat index 98⁰

Sunday, hot, chance of showers

A Heat Advisory has been issued by the NWS for today and tomorrow. I fully expect the heat to continue at advisory levels through the weekend.

max_weisenfeld said:

Uploading an image for the front page to get rid of that radar image from June

Love the image. I'm guessing those are bats flying at sunset!

Morganna said:

Love the image. I'm guessing those are bats flying at sunset!

--- look like seagulls to me.

Formerlyjerseyjack said:

--- look like seagulls to me.

I'm fixated on bats! I keep joining FB pages that show videos of infant bats, albino bats, etc. so hoping for Halloween you'll share a bat photo on my Uncaged Bird thread. 

Sorry for the thread drift Max.

Lots of flooding out there on my drive home. I actually got off the road and parked in the Vauxhall Staples lot for a while, the rain was blinding. 

Wednesday Weekend Weather, featuring Debby

The models have come into much better agreement on the profile for this weekend. The remains of Debby are moving faster and trending farther west over several recent runs. The storm is also trending weaker. As a result, rainfall amounts have been trending lower now for a full 24 hours worth of model results.

This is still and will remain a complex system, with several fronts and air masses interacting, and will remain somewhat unpredictable. It is likely that the rainfall totals will again be uneven, with areas of downpours and others only getting a steady albeit heavy rain.

The bottom line is that we are still going to get heavy rain, but the risk of a repeat of last night is, to use the technical term, slight (see the Excessive Rainfall Outlook graphic below). The NWS expects 2 - 3 inches in the SLGT zone (yellow) on the map. Some of the latest data is even dryer. ==> This is 2 - 3 inches total additional rain from now through Saturday inclusive.

Timing: The rain is still likely to come in two tranches as I mentioned yesterday. Thursday afternoon rain could be heavy at times, and an isolated thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon. Winds should pick up a bit and we might see gusts up to 20 - 25mph but not likely damaging. Chance of lighter rain overnight Thursday into Friday.

Rain becomes likely early Friday morning and could affect the morning commute. Rain likely becomes heavy in the afternoon Friday and in the evening as the wind also picks up again. With a steady wind near 20mph and gusts in the low 30s, secure your plastic lawn furniture and umbrellas. Chance of thunderstorms overnight Friday into Saturday will bring a return of a chance of flooding. Expect the NWS to issue watches. Wind and rain both likely to end early Saturday morning.

The rest of the day Saturday should be clearing skies, warm, and a bit humid.I should also mention there is a Marginal (the level below 'Slight') chance of an isolated tornado Friday (especially Friday night) if more severe thunderstorms develop.

TLDR? A less than predictable complex system is likely to bring moderate winds and heavy rain to our area Thursday and Friday, with a chance of more flooding.

Turn on the alerts on your phone, please do not depend on me for watches and warnings.

If you're still reading at this point, you might be interested in the whole 'slight' vs 'marginal' terminology. These are terms used by the NWS and have specific definitions. I'll attach a graphic that explains in more detail.

So, the drought is over.

Thursday Aug 8th

Some adjustments to yesterday afternoon's detailed post as the forecast comes into clearer focus

Today, Temps in the low 70⁰s and very humid. Breezy, with gusts to the low 20 mph range. Chance of light and scattered showers throughout the day

Overnight Thursday to Friday, increasing from slight chance to chance isolated downpours and perhaps a thunderstorm

Friday, chance rain in the morning continues and becomes heavy rain likely after noon. Isolated downpours and thunderstorms also likely throughout the afternoon and into the first half of Friday night. Rain then tapers off, ending Saturday morning. Windy, with low 20s mph steady winds and gusts in the mid 30 mph range.

Total rain for the period 1.5 to 2 inches although could be higher wnhere isolated areas experience heavy downpours. Road ponding and field flooding are possible as the ground remains saturated

There remains the very slight chance of isolated tornadoes.

Changes from previous forecast of note include significant reduction in total rainfall due to almost complete elimination of Thursday rain, which has moved west and north of our area.

Also note that, after the rain, Saturday will clear up and be moderately warm but a bit muggy. Sunday and Monday will be clear, warm (high around 80⁰) with low humidity and a breeze.

tjohn said:

So, the drought is over.

I'll let you know later today, the data gets reported on Thursdays