Warning Ends, Snow Showers now, and again on Wednesday

I don't like talking about weather events, especially noreaster type storms, more than 120 hours out, but the commercial forecasters and the tv guys are all over this one, so I will give a little perspective.

All the models are showing the potential for a major coastal storm Monday/Tuesday.

As regular readers know, this type of storm requires at least three things to come together just right (or just wrong). A northern track 'clipper' system, like what is happening right now, interacts with a southern stream low, like what is not happening right now, to create the storm.

Then the track the storm takes matters. Too far off the coast, we get a windy day. Too far west, we get rain. But the right track sucks moisture from the gulfstream up and dumps it on us as snow. Add wind, and you have a blizzard.

There is currently support in both the GFS and Euro for a jackpot storm. There is also support for a rainy, windy day. There is no way to sort it out except to wait for more data, as all the global models have difficulty with this type of interaction and the short range models that handle it better will not be in range for another 72 hours.


No matter what happens, that post is the perfect preparation. Thanks! grin


i vote for rainy/windy!


The NWS is currently predicting snow but isn't predicting amounts.


Terrific post, Max. Thanks.


The models still strongly indicate a significant storm Tuesday, with the differences being more about where rather than whether the storm hits. However, the northern stream componant of the system is still offshore in the Pacific. When it arrives on land over the next 24 hours, the NWS will be able to get a better idea of its structure and potential.

At this time, both the GFS and the Euro show a strong coastal system on most outputs. There is greater disagreement about track up the coast, including how close to the coast the system comes, and some solutions show the system not fully phasing (that is, combining into one big storm) and running up the coast both as a noreaster and an on shore runner (this solution is a more moderate storm).

Many of the outputs indicate a foot or more of snow and high winds.

We will probably not have a really clear view of all the moving parts until about 24 hours out on Monday (there is also an arctic air mass and some energy coming down from the Great Lakes in the mix) so don't panic yet, but a relaxed trip to get gas for the snowblower and another quart of milk sometime this weekend would not be out of order.


Max, Thank you again. I saw a snippet about the potential storm on FB and right away I knew exactly where to come to get the honest, accurate , true story. Thank you for being the weather guru for SOMA and thank you for getting me through yet another winter.



I have a flight scheduled for Tuesday morning. Guess if I'm going to be prudent I should plan to leave on Monday afternoon instead.


Max, first all thank you for all you do for all of us with your weather reports.

I'm away right now and come back Sunday night. I have an important Dr's appointment at Sloan Kettering in Basking Ridge on Tuesday morning. When is the storm likely to start? Monday night, Tues morning, Tues afternoon? Do you have any idea.



Any update?? Are we in the blizzard watch area?


We're in a "watch" with possible 12-18 inches according to NWS. Could get interesting. Or not. cheese



It is unlikely that we will get full-on blizzard conditions. We could very likely get heavy snow and wind. Right now the timing is overnight Monday and all day Tuesday. More details tomorrow afternoon after the Purim Schpeil.

NWS winter storm watch:

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...Potential for a Major Winter Storm Monday night into
Wednesday...

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>070-120900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Watch, which is in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening.

* Locations...Northeastern New Jersey, Orange, Putnam, Rockland,
Northern Westchester, Northern Fairfield, and Northern New Haven
counties.

* Hazard Types...Snow.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages.

* Winds...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph.

* Temperatures...In the mid 20s.

* Visibilities...One half to one quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.



So semi-blizzard and 12-18"?



mammabear said:

So semi-blizzard and 12-18"?

That's the current forecast, yes. I believe the term the NWS is using is "blustery"


I'm going to just leave this right here.....


... so long as I can get to the Richard Rogers Theater Wednesday night.


The blizzard watch now extends into New Jersey, but does not reach as far west as MAPSO.

Technically, it extends as far as the parkway in Irvington.



max_weisenfeld said:

The blizzard watch now extends into New Jersey, but does not reach as far west as MAPSO.

Technically, it extends as far as the parkway in Irvington.

So, conceivably, we could enjoy a nice Spring day while Irvington gets slammed. I'll go with that.


no! take it away!!

max_weisenfeld said:

I'm going to just leave this right here.....



Key question: how long will it take to melt?


and when should we shovel? (perhaps not at all, if it's going to melt immediately)



iwasmim said:

and when should we shovel? (perhaps not at all, if it's going to melt immediately)

I don't see temps above freezing before Saturday afternoon.


Is the question at this point whether we get rain or snow or has the question become snow vs blizzard?


Major Snowstorm Tuesday.

Models are in good agreement with high confidence for a major winter storm Monday night into Tuesday afternoon, perhaps extending into Tuesday evening.

We are seeing more agreement than usual among the models over the last 24 hours with a high precipitation, cold, high wind event for our area.

Current spread in the models is between 12 and 24 inches of snow, with more confidence toward the higher end right now. Frankly, the most likely thing to depress snow totals would be a period of rain or sleet at the beginning or end of the snow, which would be worse than all white fluffy stuff, IMHO. Heavy wet snow means wires down. Would rather go deep than go without electricity. During the day Tuesday, snowfall could exceed 2"/hour in widespread banding and over multiple hours.

Expect to see warnings soon from the NWS, perhaps as early as this evening.

Timing: Monday, about or after midnight until Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Snow: Best estimate at this time, 16" - 22"

Wind: Just below blizzard conditions. Steady 20 mph with gusts in the 40s could lead to near whiteout conditions at times.

Travel: The airports will likely close for several hours. The towns will not be able to keep up with the plowing and local roads will be snow-covered for a time until they catch up. Plan to stay home, change your plans if you have them.



maps said:

Is the question at this point whether we get rain or snow or has the question become snow vs blizzard?

Snow v. Blizzard


Below is the Winter Storm Warning for Morristown from the National Weather Service Mt. Holly office (Philadelphia region). Mt. Holly has always been a little quicker with the advisories than Upton (NY region -- our local office) who tend to be a bit more conservative. The result right now is we are in a small sliver of western Essex County that is between a Blizzard Warning to our east from Upton and a Winter Storm Warning to our west from Mt Holly. I expect we will get a warning shortly, when Upton posts the next updates. Timing and details will be pretty similar, but we should expect more snow, and slightly later timing.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...A MAJOR COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...

.Low pressure will develop off the Carolina coast Monday and become
an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey on Tuesday. Heavy
precipitation will develop along and west of the track of the
storm. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow in much of the
area Monday night and Tuesday with substantial accumulations.


308 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow, which is in effect from 8 PM Monday
to 6 PM EDT Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in
effect.

* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New Jersey.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 8 to 18 inches.

* TIMING...Snow begins Monday evening from southwest to northeast
across the warning area, becoming heavy at times with snowfall
rates of one to two inches per hour late Monday night and
Tuesday morning. Snow will diminish by Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make travel difficult or
impossible late Monday night and Tuesday.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...One quarter mile or less at times, especially
Tuesday morning.

* TEMPERATURES...Generally in the 20s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...
food...and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.




Called it. Upton upgraded to a warning for our area, from Midnight Monday until midnight Tuesday:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...Major Winter Storm Monday night into Tuesday night...

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow, which is in effect from midnight Monday
night to midnight EDT Tuesday night. The Winter Storm Watch is no
longer in effect.

* Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches.

* Locations...Portions of northeastern New Jersey, Orange,
Putnam, Rockland, Northern Westchester, Northern Fairfield, and
Northern New Haven counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages.

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Temperatures...In the mid to upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.



Folks who travel by train between here and DC:

So... Mrs GoSlugs is supposed to take the train down to DC Monday morning, give a presentation and come back Tuesday morning, returning to Newark around noon. Does anyone have any experience with how Amtrak operates in these conditions? Can the trains move through the snow? If she ends up at Newark Penn at noon on Tuesday, will she be marooned because NJT will be shut down?


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