Tropical Storm/Hurricane Barry

As of this morning, Tropical Storm Barry has developed in the northern Gulf of Mexico. While the meteorology behind this system is pretty interesting, I'll skip to the important part. Wind will not be the story with this system, the water will. This storm is going to be a rain machine (to circumvent this now, yes there is likely a climate change influence here, albeit not by any means the driver) with 15-20 inches expected in some spots. The Mississippi River is forecast to crest higher than it has crested since 1927. The Weather Prediction Center has gone so far as to issue their third ever HIGH risk for excessive rainfall, with the previous two times being Hurricanes Florence and Harvey. Current forecasts have this system impacting somewhere around New Orleans. If you have any family or friends in the region, please tell them to evacuate immediately, as flooding could be catastrophic. 

The official National Hurricane Center Forecast can be seen here. I will update further later this evening.

Oh, let's do the meteorology!  This thing started not in the Azores, nor the Atlantic, but in freakin' KENTUCKY!  I bet the initial convection was the hot air coming off Mitch McConnell when he realized Amy McGrath was really going to run!

I do think we should point out that the chances of this storm having any appreciable effect on New Jersey are slight.

max_weisenfeld said:
Oh, let's do the meteorology!  This thing started not in the Azores, nor the Atlantic, but in freakin' KENTUCKY!  I bet the initial convection was the hot air coming off Mitch McConnell when her realized Amy McGrath was really going to run!

 Kidding aside how unusual is it for a pre-tropical system to develop over the continental US?

I'll leave it to WXNUT to improve on my take, which is that I do not recall having seen it before.

The analogues the weenies are using on the weather boards are from1983, 1991, and 1992

mrincredible said:

max_weisenfeld said:
Oh, let's do the meteorology!  This thing started not in the Azores, nor the Atlantic, but in freakin' KENTUCKY!  I bet the initial convection was the hot air coming off Mitch McConnell when her realized Amy McGrath was really going to run!

 Kidding aside how unusual is it for a pre-tropical system to develop over the continental US?

 It's a little unusual, but mostly just cool. The path is a little unique in that it meandered south amid weak steering under a large-scale ridge. But this time of year its not unusual to see systems develop on the tail end of synoptic fronts, which are by definition not tropical. These type of extra- to tropical (and vice-versa) are not really all that unusual by themselves though.

WxNut2.0 said:
As of this morning, Tropical Storm Barry has developed in the northern Gulf of Mexico. While the meteorology behind this system is pretty interesting, I'll skip to the important part. Wind will not be the story with this system, the water will. This storm is going to be a rain machine (to circumvent this now, yes there is likely a climate change influence here, albeit not by any means the driver) with 15-20 inches expected in some spots. The Mississippi River is forecast to crest higher than it has crested since 1927. The Weather Prediction Center has gone so far as to issue their third ever HIGH risk for excessive rainfall, with the previous two times being Hurricanes Florence and Harvey. Current forecasts have this system impacting somewhere around New Orleans. If you have any family or friends in the region, please tell them to evacuate immediately, as flooding could be catastrophic. 
The official National Hurricane Center Forecast can be seen here. I will update further later this evening.

 Passed on to relative in New Orleans.  Thanks for the warning.

supposed to go to NO a week from Sunday. Wonder if we should change plans?

Neighborhoods near Claiborne were flooded two days ago.

WxNut2.0 said:
As of this morning, Tropical Storm Barry has developed in the northern Gulf of Mexico. While the meteorology behind this system is pretty interesting, I'll skip to the important part. Wind will not be the story with this system, the water will. This storm is going to be a rain machine (to circumvent this now, yes there is likely a climate change influence here, albeit not by any means the driver) with 15-20 inches expected in some spots. The Mississippi River is forecast to crest higher than it has crested since 1927. The Weather Prediction Center has gone so far as to issue their third ever HIGH risk for excessive rainfall, with the previous two times being Hurricanes Florence and Harvey. Current forecasts have this system impacting somewhere around New Orleans. If you have any family or friends in the region, please tell them to evacuate immediately, as flooding could be catastrophic. 
The official National Hurricane Center Forecast can be seen here. I will update further later this evening.

 Just heard back from my relative's mother.  She writes that New Orleans has NOT issued an evaluation order and her son is determined to ride out the storm in place.  Should I be worried?

joan_crystal said:

WxNut2.0 said:
As of this morning, Tropical Storm Barry has developed in the northern Gulf of Mexico. While the meteorology behind this system is pretty interesting, I'll skip to the important part. Wind will not be the story with this system, the water will. This storm is going to be a rain machine (to circumvent this now, yes there is likely a climate change influence here, albeit not by any means the driver) with 15-20 inches expected in some spots. The Mississippi River is forecast to crest higher than it has crested since 1927. The Weather Prediction Center has gone so far as to issue their third ever HIGH risk for excessive rainfall, with the previous two times being Hurricanes Florence and Harvey. Current forecasts have this system impacting somewhere around New Orleans. If you have any family or friends in the region, please tell them to evacuate immediately, as flooding could be catastrophic. 
The official National Hurricane Center Forecast can be seen here. I will update further later this evening.

Click to Read More

WxNut2.0 said:
As of this morning, Tropical Storm Barry has developed in the northern Gulf of Mexico. While the meteorology behind this system is pretty interesting, I'll skip to the important part. Wind will not be the story with this system, the water will. This storm is going to be a rain machine (to circumvent this now, yes there is likely a climate change influence here, albeit not by any means the driver) with 15-20 inches expected in some spots. The Mississippi River is forecast to crest higher than it has crested since 1927. The Weather Prediction Center has gone so far as to issue their third ever HIGH risk for excessive rainfall, with the previous two times being Hurricanes Florence and Harvey. Current forecasts have this system impacting somewhere around New Orleans. If you have any family or friends in the region, please tell them to evacuate immediately, as flooding could be catastrophic. 
The official National Hurricane Center Forecast can be seen here. I will update further later this evening.

 Just heard back from my relative's mother.  She writes that New Orleans has NOT issued an evaluation order and her son is determined to ride out the storm in place.  Should I be worried?

 This has been a big issue in the meteorology/emergency management community. Yes, they need to evacuate. NOLA is not issuing an evacuation order because it’s “only” going to be a tropical storm/cat 1 hurricane. There’s a big messaging problem here. There’s high potential for life-threatening flooding. If they can get out, they need to. 

fwiw, some of the newer model runs have the worst rain slightly west of New Orleans. Could easily shift back though. 

Thank you for your reply.  

 He should not evacuate.

truth said:
 He should not evacuate.

 Good talk 

I have lived in New Orleans during a hurricane and it is more dangerous travelling outside the city in severe weather. Since no one can guarantee where a storm will head, people evacuating have a good chance of going more directly into the path of the storm. The levees and floodgates have been upgraded post-Katrina, so the flood hazard is from water going over the levees not collapsing them. Most of new Orleans will have some flooding except for perhaps Monkey Hill. People who evacuated to nearby Metairie yesterday have told me they have lost power while New Orleans is still online.

truth said:
I have lived in New Orleans during a hurricane and it is more dangerous travelling outside the city in severe weather. Since no one can guarantee where a storm will head, people evacuating have a good chance of going more directly into the path of the storm. The levees and floodgates have been upgraded post-Katrina, so the flood hazard is from water going over the levees not collapsing them. Most of new Orleans will have some flooding except for perhaps Monkey Hill. People who evacuated to nearby Metairie yesterday have told me they have lost power while New Orleans is still online.

“I survived being shot the last time, so I must be immune to bullets now”

How far do people need to evacuate to be clear of a storm's potential path?  

Klinker said:
How far do people need to evacuate to be clear of a storm's potential path?  

The issue here is the flooding rain potential, so it’s a little tough to say. New Orleans is in a unique spot geographically that makes it exceptionally susceptible to events like this. Here’s good guideline about the flood hazards: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

For hurricanes over category 1 directly headed towards NOLA some residents head towards Houston or Hattiesburg.

Klinker said:
How far do people need to evacuate to be clear of a storm's potential path?  

 During the time my daughter was in Med school at Tulane in New Orleans,  They were advised to evacuate twice pre Katrina.  She and friends traveled North as far as Mississippi.

truth said:
For hurricanes over category 1 directly headed towards NOLA some residents head towards Houston or Hattiesburg.

What wrong with that?

The bigger issue is getting caught up with categories. Wind was never the threat here. Ask Houston what a tropical storm like Allison can do.

WxNut2.0 Nothing wrong. Just answering Klinker's question as to how far some people travel out of harm's way from New Orleans. Where did you travel the times you evacuated from New Orleans?

truth said:
WxNut2.0 Nothing wrong. Just answering Klinker's question as to how far some people travel out of harm's way from New Orleans. Where did you travel the times you evacuated from New Orleans?

Gotcha. Misunderstood who that was directed at. I’d usually head for Kalamazoo.