Thursday 1/16/20 wind and Saturday Snow.

Thursday 1/16/20 wind and Saturday Snow.

Likely to be windy again tomorrow, Thurs, with steady winds around 20mph with gusts 35 - 40 most of the day. Windy conditions could continue in the overnight hours.

Saturday snow is likely. Timing and precipitation amounts are still a moving target. As of now, light snow is possible Sat morning, with a couple of hours of moderate to heavy snow in the afternoon followed by a fairly rapid changeover to rain, with little or no mixed precipitation at changeover. Temperatures will continue to rise overnight, so continued rain will do much to clear the snow by morning.


Max,

We are having an orchid show this weekend (see separate thread).  

I respectfully request a revised forecast.


Ok so we need to head to Floods Hill while it's still snowing on Saturday early afternoon. Then out to the Reservoir for pizza and the 7 pm "Doolittle" at SOPAC.


Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service New York NY119 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020
 
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph expected.
* WHERE...Northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York.
* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a highprofile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


Top gusts here probably closer to 40 mph, with a steady 18 - 23 in the afternoon peak.


Max,

I have to drive with a trailer, loaded with lightweight, but large items.  

You really are making my day.


Tomcat the winds are tomorrow. You'll just have snow and rain to deal with Saturday apparently.


As of this (Thursday 1/16) morning, forecast remains mostly status quo, with only slight changes.

For today, there's a WIND ADVISORY from 9:00 am to 7:00 pm, with steady winds of 20 - 25 mph and gusts into the mid 40 mph range. Might see some snow flurries as well.

For Saturday Jan 18, snow, most likely in the afternoon, starting around 2:00 and continuing for 2 - 3 hours. Snow likely to change over to rain in the early evening, and light to moderate rain could continue towards midnight. Temperatures will warm a bit throughout the night and Sunday highs will be in the upper 30s.

Total snow looks to be in the 1 - 2"range (NWS forecast is 1 - 3") but there will likely be less than that on the ground by Sunday morning.


Yeah it's blustery and some significant snow is falling.


Did you guys know there is an app that lets you report weather as it happens?  It's called mPing, and it feeds a database that NOAA and the NWS use to test how accurate the radar is and develop better radar and forecasting tools.

https://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/

I mention this because it did not snow just now in eastern Maplewood where I am.  The fact that you saw snow and I did not is valuable information that is only captured by the participation of citizen scientists like us!


Okay I put it on my phone.  It hasn't been updated in a few years though.

It looked like it could have been graupel (love that word) but I wasn't going outside to have a better look.  I was watching some very tall trees sway in the wind from INSIDE my house!


Another SO friend of mine reported graupel a little earlier today also.


max_weisenfeld said:

Did you guys know there is an app that lets you report weather as it happens?  It's called mPing, and it feeds a database that NOAA and the NWS use to test how accurate the radar is and develop better radar and forecasting tools.

https://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/

I mention this because it did not snow just now in eastern Maplewood where I am.  The fact that you saw snow and I did not is valuable information that is only captured by the participation of citizen scientists like us!

 A huge gust of wind kicked up—flew back the top to my toter that I had just put out and the top to a cardboard box flew down the street so fast, it was out of sight by the time I went to look for it—and it started snowing big wet flakes very fast. I was getting into my car and a branch from the tree above it fell (missed me and the car). By the time I got to where I was going in West Orange, it had stopped. Kind of scary actually.


With any luck the winds will start dying down now, but the advisory is up until 10:00 pm so no promises.


Two small but palpable differences in the forecast for this morning (Friday 1/17).

Today will still be a little breezy. Although nothing like yesterday, steady winds of 10 - 15 and gusts in the 20s are likely this morning.

For tomorrow, Saturday, the air looks about 5° colder that earlier forecasts. If that holds, then more of the precipitation will be snow and less rain, so by Sunday morning more snow will remain on the ground. Based on this, I am upping my forecast to 2 - 4" (from 1 - 3"), with an expectation that there could be perhaps 2" remaining on the ground Sunday morning.

Snow most likely to begin in the early afternoon tomorrow and continue until midnight. Light rain possible until morning.

Colder temperatures Sunday means we are more likely to have to get out there and clear the snow instead of just watching it melt.

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow, I will post it in the comments.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
354 AM EST Fri

Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
354 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. These hazardous conditions could impact travel on Saturday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.


Flood's Hill is still in the plan then!!!

But I read the reviews for "Dolittle" so my plans for later in the day Saturday may have also changed.  I still envision the Reservoir for pizza but I'm not sure about entertainment selection.

I look forward to using my mPING app though.


The NWS has upped the snow forecast by an inch but since I was already at 2 - 4" so I think I'll stand pat.

The weenies are complaining that they only have this "nuisance snow" to talk about.

Forecast remains as above.  Slightly warmer temps overnight have given a little more rain signal at the back end, but not a significant change.

Should we shovel or is there more to come,?


I did a first pass during the dry slot.  Not hard to move, mostly powder.  I plan to do the rest first thing in the am.


I'm seeing 35 and some rain at midnight - partly sunny and up to 40 tomorrow.  May not need to shovel at all.   snake


Just shoveled.  Pretty light stuff.  Been sleeting not snowing for  while.  


We're waiting until tomorrow.  It doesn't seem like there's enough to be in a rush about it.  (Sometimes the sun comes out and does it for us.)


Also shoveled- very wet and heavy stuff!  (One of us has work early am tomorrow )


Be careful! It's a slip 'n slide out there on unshoveled walkways today!



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