The New York Times - They're even more evil now
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Most people who are registered independents actually follow a party line, at least when voting for President. They are not swing voters.
Most registered independents *lean* toward a party, as per the Pew research you cited. Most registered independents do not "actually follow a party line," as you claim. There's a big difference in meaning of the words lean and follow. If you do not know this you should consult a dictionary.
yeah, ok
ml1 said:
I don't know this as a fact. But I suspect a lot of "independent" voters are conservatives who are embarrassed to admit they actually lean toward the party of Trump.
If that were true, I’d expect to see a jump in independent affiliation, and a corresponding drop in Republican affiliation, in Gallup polling since some point in the Trump era. I don’t.
DaveSchmidt said:
ml1 said:
I don't know this as a fact. But I suspect a lot of "independent" voters are conservatives who are embarrassed to admit they actually lean toward the party of Trump.
If that were true, I’d expect to see a jump in independent affiliation, and a corresponding drop in Republican affiliation, in Gallup polling since some point in the Trump era. I don’t.
Plus Biden won on the Ind vote. So that means a lot of "independent" voters are closet conservatives who are SO embarrassed to admit they lean Republican that they actually pulled the lever for Biden.
First, I believe that in NJ one who is not registered in a Party can declare themselves at the Polls on Primary Day so they can vote in the Primary of either the Republican or Democratic Party. A person who does not do so is throwing away half their vote since most elections are actually decided in the Primary.
Smedley said:
Most registered independents *lean* toward a party, as per the Pew research you cited. Most registered independents do not "actually follow a party line," as you claim. There's a big difference in meaning of the words lean and follow. If you do not know this you should consult a dictionary.
What does it mean to "follow a party line" with respect to today's Republican Party which adopted no platform at its last National Convention They just resolved to support then President Trump.
I suspect that many professed "independents" vote more on the perceived character, competence or leadership abilities of a candidate rather than on the candidate's position on issues. This might not hold if a candidate expresses very extreme or unusual positions. However the "independent' voter would probably see that as a character flaw.
BTW why do we believe people in a focus group tell the truth about how they voted?
Smedley said:
Plus Biden won on the Ind vote. So that means a lot of "independent" voters are closet conservatives who are SO embarrassed to admit they lean Republican that they actually pulled the lever for Biden.
Perhaps they were embarrassed to have Trump as President
STANV said:
Was actually a new word for me too - thank RFA for posting the New Yorker article.
Smedley said:
Plus Biden won on the Ind vote. So that means a lot of "independent" voters are closet conservatives who are SO embarrassed to admit they lean Republican that they actually pulled the lever for Biden.
that's actually more convincing than what I wrote. They lean Republican, but they are embarrassed by Trump.
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
I don't think Democrats should concern themselves with trying to reach people like this.
Democrats shouldn't concern themselves with reaching independent voters? That is an interesting and contrarian viewpoint. How do they win the electoral vote in '24?
that's what you think these people are? "independent" voters?
LOL
the independent voter notion is one of the most damaging parts of our political discourse. calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance. they're not independent. they mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes the way they do. yet we pretend they're independent - that they make sound, objective choices not based on party affiliation.
but I guess we mustn't offend them by telling the truth.
This is ridic. I’m an independent voter, which simply means I’m neither a registered Republican nor registered Democrat. I vote for who I think is the best candidate and whose beliefs align closest to my own. It doesn’t mean I’m a better or smarter voter vs a loyal D or R. Doesn’t mean my choices are more sound or more objective than yours, or MT’s. It’s just what works for me. (And also apparently a good portion of the electorate - the portion that just happens to decide most national elections.)
Your rants are just downright weird TBH. “Calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance”. Huh? WTH does that even mean. And indie voters “mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes.” Uh, okaaaaay.
But w/e, you do you.
I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
I don't see how anyone who isn't a committed Republican already would consider voting for a member of the Trump/Jan. 6 party. At this point, just remaining a Republican pretty much ensures a candidate is not a good person at all, and certainly not the "best" candidate for any office.
Well I was at a Catholic Funeral Mass today and if JC ran on the platform of his Sermon on the Mount I would probably vote for him despite Party affiliation. Of course with that platform he couldn't win a Republican Primary.
ml1 said:
I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
While a disaffected voter who just wants a change candidate, whether Obama or Trump, to do something about a system that could cause someone to vote for Satan over Jesus "is probably some combination of ill-informed, irrational, and lacking a well-formed set of ideas about the role of government."
DaveSchmidt said:
ml1 said:
I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
While a disaffected voter who just wants a change candidate, whether Obama or Trump, to do something about a system that could cause someone to vote for Satan over Jesus "is probably some combination of ill-informed, irrational, and lacking a well-formed set of ideas about the role of government."
exactly.
STANV said:
Well I was at a Catholic Funeral Mass today and if JC ran on the platform of his Sermon on the Mount I would probably vote for him despite Party affiliation. Of course with that platform he couldn't win a Republican Primary.
this is true too.
And when I wrote my post I was actually thinking that the Lord and Savior would never be a Republican, or as you say, could ever win a GOP primary.
It's actually hard to imagine a scenario today in which a Republican nominee could be a better human being than his/her opponent.
If I hadn’t read the religious pontifications here, I would never have believed it possible for smart people to be so dumb.
mtierney said:
If I hadn’t read the religious pontifications here, I would never have believed it possible for smart people to be so dumb.
If you are so much smarter than the rest of us, maybe you could explain how Christ would reconcile the Sermon on the Mount with the actions of today's Republican Party.
because I'll admit I'm certainly not clever enough to perform the mental gymnastics required.
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
I don't think Democrats should concern themselves with trying to reach people like this.
Democrats shouldn't concern themselves with reaching independent voters? That is an interesting and contrarian viewpoint. How do they win the electoral vote in '24?
that's what you think these people are? "independent" voters?
LOL
the independent voter notion is one of the most damaging parts of our political discourse. calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance. they're not independent. they mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes the way they do. yet we pretend they're independent - that they make sound, objective choices not based on party affiliation.
but I guess we mustn't offend them by telling the truth.
This is ridic. I’m an independent voter, which simply means I’m neither a registered Republican nor registered Democrat. I vote for who I think is the best candidate and whose beliefs align closest to my own. It doesn’t mean I’m a better or smarter voter vs a loyal D or R. Doesn’t mean my choices are more sound or more objective than yours, or MT’s. It’s just what works for me. (And also apparently a good portion of the electorate - the portion that just happens to decide most national elections.)
Your rants are just downright weird TBH. “Calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance”. Huh? WTH does that even mean. And indie voters “mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes.” Uh, okaaaaay.
But w/e, you do you.I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
I don't see how anyone who isn't a committed Republican already would consider voting for a member of the Trump/Jan. 6 party. At this point, just remaining a Republican pretty much ensures a candidate is not a good person at all, and certainly not the "best" candidate for any office.
I think you overestimate Trump’s grip on the party. The party is bigger than him. He makes a lot of noise and of course the media covers his every utterance. But in my opinion, he’s finished politically - just too much baggage from Jan. 6. Plus he’s an elderly fat crap, so who knows if he’ll even be alive in 2024.
Who knows how it’ll play out of course. But I think it’s quite feasible that a moderate Republican is the candidate in 2024. Christie, Hogan, Kasich — someone like that. They all have their warts I’m sure, but I don’t think supporting someone like that would be an indictment on one’s humanity, morality or character, despite the (R) after their name.
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
I don't think Democrats should concern themselves with trying to reach people like this.
Democrats shouldn't concern themselves with reaching independent voters? That is an interesting and contrarian viewpoint. How do they win the electoral vote in '24?
that's what you think these people are? "independent" voters?
LOL
the independent voter notion is one of the most damaging parts of our political discourse. calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance. they're not independent. they mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes the way they do. yet we pretend they're independent - that they make sound, objective choices not based on party affiliation.
but I guess we mustn't offend them by telling the truth.
This is ridic. I’m an independent voter, which simply means I’m neither a registered Republican nor registered Democrat. I vote for who I think is the best candidate and whose beliefs align closest to my own. It doesn’t mean I’m a better or smarter voter vs a loyal D or R. Doesn’t mean my choices are more sound or more objective than yours, or MT’s. It’s just what works for me. (And also apparently a good portion of the electorate - the portion that just happens to decide most national elections.)
Your rants are just downright weird TBH. “Calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance”. Huh? WTH does that even mean. And indie voters “mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes.” Uh, okaaaaay.
But w/e, you do you.I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
I don't see how anyone who isn't a committed Republican already would consider voting for a member of the Trump/Jan. 6 party. At this point, just remaining a Republican pretty much ensures a candidate is not a good person at all, and certainly not the "best" candidate for any office.
I think you overestimate Trump’s grip on the party. The party is bigger than him. He makes a lot of noise and of course the media covers his every utterance. But in my opinion, he’s finished politically - just too much baggage from Jan. 6. Plus he’s an elderly fat crap, so who knows if he’ll even be alive in 2024.
Who knows how it’ll play out of course. But I think it’s quite feasible that a moderate Republican is the candidate in 2024. Christie, Hogan, Kasich — someone like that. They all have their warts I’m sure, but I don’t think supporting someone like that would be an indictment on one’s humanity, morality or character, despite the (R) after their name.
this does not comport with the current reality in GOP world. Ted Cruz suggested that Jan 6 was a bad thing, and had to go on Fox News and grovel for forgiveness from Tucker Carlson.
And there is no evidence that Republican voters want anything to do with a "moderate." Christie did a book tour recently, and the book and he sank without a trace. GOP voters are not interested in him or anyone like him.
The campaign is still two years away, but there would need to be a revolutionary sea change in the Republican party voter base for their presidential contender to be someone who isn't Trumpy (if it isn't Trump himself). Figure Greg Abbot or Ron DeSantis far before Larry Hogan. I probably have as good a chance of being the Republican presidential nominee in '24. as Larry Hogan does.
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
I don't think Democrats should concern themselves with trying to reach people like this.
Democrats shouldn't concern themselves with reaching independent voters? That is an interesting and contrarian viewpoint. How do they win the electoral vote in '24?
that's what you think these people are? "independent" voters?
LOL
the independent voter notion is one of the most damaging parts of our political discourse. calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance. they're not independent. they mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes the way they do. yet we pretend they're independent - that they make sound, objective choices not based on party affiliation.
but I guess we mustn't offend them by telling the truth.
This is ridic. I’m an independent voter, which simply means I’m neither a registered Republican nor registered Democrat. I vote for who I think is the best candidate and whose beliefs align closest to my own. It doesn’t mean I’m a better or smarter voter vs a loyal D or R. Doesn’t mean my choices are more sound or more objective than yours, or MT’s. It’s just what works for me. (And also apparently a good portion of the electorate - the portion that just happens to decide most national elections.)
Your rants are just downright weird TBH. “Calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance”. Huh? WTH does that even mean. And indie voters “mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes.” Uh, okaaaaay.
But w/e, you do you.I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
I don't see how anyone who isn't a committed Republican already would consider voting for a member of the Trump/Jan. 6 party. At this point, just remaining a Republican pretty much ensures a candidate is not a good person at all, and certainly not the "best" candidate for any office.
I think you overestimate Trump’s grip on the party. The party is bigger than him. He makes a lot of noise and of course the media covers his every utterance. But in my opinion, he’s finished politically - just too much baggage from Jan. 6. Plus he’s an elderly fat crap, so who knows if he’ll even be alive in 2024.
Who knows how it’ll play out of course. But I think it’s quite feasible that a moderate Republican is the candidate in 2024. Christie, Hogan, Kasich — someone like that. They all have their warts I’m sure, but I don’t think supporting someone like that would be an indictment on one’s humanity, morality or character, despite the (R) after their name.
it's hilarious that you cling to every poll about Biden, and at the same time ignore every poll about Trump's continuing popularity among Republicans.
Christie?
I can't even...
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
I don't think Democrats should concern themselves with trying to reach people like this.
Democrats shouldn't concern themselves with reaching independent voters? That is an interesting and contrarian viewpoint. How do they win the electoral vote in '24?
that's what you think these people are? "independent" voters?
LOL
the independent voter notion is one of the most damaging parts of our political discourse. calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance. they're not independent. they mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes the way they do. yet we pretend they're independent - that they make sound, objective choices not based on party affiliation.
but I guess we mustn't offend them by telling the truth.
This is ridic. I’m an independent voter, which simply means I’m neither a registered Republican nor registered Democrat. I vote for who I think is the best candidate and whose beliefs align closest to my own. It doesn’t mean I’m a better or smarter voter vs a loyal D or R. Doesn’t mean my choices are more sound or more objective than yours, or MT’s. It’s just what works for me. (And also apparently a good portion of the electorate - the portion that just happens to decide most national elections.)
Your rants are just downright weird TBH. “Calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance”. Huh? WTH does that even mean. And indie voters “mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes.” Uh, okaaaaay.
But w/e, you do you.I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
I don't see how anyone who isn't a committed Republican already would consider voting for a member of the Trump/Jan. 6 party. At this point, just remaining a Republican pretty much ensures a candidate is not a good person at all, and certainly not the "best" candidate for any office.
I think you overestimate Trump’s grip on the party. The party is bigger than him. He makes a lot of noise and of course the media covers his every utterance. But in my opinion, he’s finished politically - just too much baggage from Jan. 6. Plus he’s an elderly fat crap, so who knows if he’ll even be alive in 2024.
Who knows how it’ll play out of course. But I think it’s quite feasible that a moderate Republican is the candidate in 2024. Christie, Hogan, Kasich — someone like that. They all have their warts I’m sure, but I don’t think supporting someone like that would be an indictment on one’s humanity, morality or character, despite the (R) after their name.
this does not comport with the current reality in GOP world. Ted Cruz suggested that Jan 6 was a bad thing, and had to go on Fox News and grovel for forgiveness from Tucker Carlson.
And there is no evidence that Republican voters want anything to do with a "moderate." Christie did a book tour recently, and the book and he sank without a trace. GOP voters are not interested in him or anyone like him.
The campaign is still two years away, but there would need to be a revolutionary sea change in the Republican party voter base for their presidential contender to be someone who isn't Trumpy (if it isn't Trump himself). Figure Greg Abbot or Ron DeSantis far before Larry Hogan. I probably have as good a chance of being the Republican presidential nominee in '24. as Larry Hogan does.
We’ll see. As much of an ahole as Trump is , he does have a unique charisma that won over a helluva lot of voters. Other pols may be Trumpy, but there’s only one Trump. Is your average hillbilly who would run through a brick wall for Trump, willing to do the same for desantis or Abbott? Doubtful, IMO. And that is significant.
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
I don't think Democrats should concern themselves with trying to reach people like this.
Democrats shouldn't concern themselves with reaching independent voters? That is an interesting and contrarian viewpoint. How do they win the electoral vote in '24?
that's what you think these people are? "independent" voters?
LOL
the independent voter notion is one of the most damaging parts of our political discourse. calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance. they're not independent. they mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes the way they do. yet we pretend they're independent - that they make sound, objective choices not based on party affiliation.
but I guess we mustn't offend them by telling the truth.
This is ridic. I’m an independent voter, which simply means I’m neither a registered Republican nor registered Democrat. I vote for who I think is the best candidate and whose beliefs align closest to my own. It doesn’t mean I’m a better or smarter voter vs a loyal D or R. Doesn’t mean my choices are more sound or more objective than yours, or MT’s. It’s just what works for me. (And also apparently a good portion of the electorate - the portion that just happens to decide most national elections.)
Your rants are just downright weird TBH. “Calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance”. Huh? WTH does that even mean. And indie voters “mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes.” Uh, okaaaaay.
But w/e, you do you.I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
I don't see how anyone who isn't a committed Republican already would consider voting for a member of the Trump/Jan. 6 party. At this point, just remaining a Republican pretty much ensures a candidate is not a good person at all, and certainly not the "best" candidate for any office.
I think you overestimate Trump’s grip on the party. The party is bigger than him. He makes a lot of noise and of course the media covers his every utterance. But in my opinion, he’s finished politically - just too much baggage from Jan. 6. Plus he’s an elderly fat crap, so who knows if he’ll even be alive in 2024.
Who knows how it’ll play out of course. But I think it’s quite feasible that a moderate Republican is the candidate in 2024. Christie, Hogan, Kasich — someone like that. They all have their warts I’m sure, but I don’t think supporting someone like that would be an indictment on one’s humanity, morality or character, despite the (R) after their name.
it's hilarious that you cling to every poll about Biden, and at the same time ignore every poll about Trump's continuing popularity among Republicans.
Christie?
I can't even...
like the poll that shows 27% of voters want Trump to run again?
https://www.newsweek.com/less-30-percent-voters-want-trump-biden-run-again-2024-poll-1671557
Wow he sounds like a shoo-in.
Smedley said:
like the poll that shows 27% of voters want Trump to run again?
https://www.newsweek.com/less-30-percent-voters-want-trump-biden-run-again-2024-poll-1671557
Wow he sounds like a shoo-in.
what % of the total electorate came out in the '16 primaries to gave Trump the nomination?
ml1 said:
If you are so much smarter than the rest of us, maybe you could explain how Christ would reconcile the Sermon on the Mount with the actions of today's Republican Party.
because I'll admit I'm certainly not clever enough to perform the mental gymnastics required.
Or the Beatitudes. Or many of his parables.
Smedley said:
We’ll see. As much of an ahole as Trump is , he does have a unique charisma that won over a helluva lot of voters. Other pols may be Trumpy, but there’s only one Trump. Is your average hillbilly who would run through a brick wall for Trump, willing to do the same for desantis or Abbott? Doubtful, IMO. And that is significant.
I will bet you cash money that Larry Hogan will not be the GOP nominee in '24. Or Christie or Kasich. Or if you like whiskey I'll send you a bottle of Hill Rock if any of those three are the next Republican presidential nominee.
At this moment in time it's proposterous to think any of them could win the nomination.
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
We’ll see. As much of an ahole as Trump is , he does have a unique charisma that won over a helluva lot of voters. Other pols may be Trumpy, but there’s only one Trump. Is your average hillbilly who would run through a brick wall for Trump, willing to do the same for desantis or Abbott? Doubtful, IMO. And that is significant.
I will bet you cash money that Larry Hogan will not be the GOP nominee in '24. Or Christie or Kasich. Or if you like whiskey I'll send you a bottle of Hill Rock if any of those three are the next Republican presidential nominee.
At this moment in time it's proposterous to think any of them could win the nomination.
It’s preposterous to think any of them could win the nomination (were the primaries held tomorrow)
I’ll give you that.
I’m surprised you seem to so firmly believe in what will / won’t happen 24-30 months from now. At this point in past election cycles a number of candidates who seemed preposterous at the time ended up president : Trump, Obama, Bubba, Carter. (Ok maybe not Obama). I’m sure there are others.
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
it's hilarious that you cling to every poll about Biden, and at the same time ignore every poll about Trump's continuing popularity among Republicans.
like the poll that shows 27% of voters want Trump to run again?
No, like a poll about Trump's continuing popularity among Republicans.
Smedley said:
It’s preposterous to think any of them could win the nomination (were the primaries held tomorrow)
. I’ll give you that.
I’m surprised you seem to so firmly believe in what will / won’t happen 24-30 months from now. At this point in past election cycles a number of candidates who seemed preposterous at the time ended up president : Trump, Obama, Bubba, Carter. (Ok maybe not Obama). I’m sure there are others.
the trajectory of the national Republican Party for 30+ years has been in the exact opposite direction -- AWAY from candidates like Hogan. He's an anomaly in the party nationally because he's in a state where a typical Republican can't win.
That decades long trajectory is what I'm basing my conclusions on. It's not a sure thing, but like I wrote above, it takes something revolutionary to change a long term trend like that.
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
I don't think Democrats should concern themselves with trying to reach people like this.
Democrats shouldn't concern themselves with reaching independent voters? That is an interesting and contrarian viewpoint. How do they win the electoral vote in '24?
that's what you think these people are? "independent" voters?
LOL
the independent voter notion is one of the most damaging parts of our political discourse. calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance. they're not independent. they mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes the way they do. yet we pretend they're independent - that they make sound, objective choices not based on party affiliation.
but I guess we mustn't offend them by telling the truth.
This is ridic. I’m an independent voter, which simply means I’m neither a registered Republican nor registered Democrat. I vote for who I think is the best candidate and whose beliefs align closest to my own. It doesn’t mean I’m a better or smarter voter vs a loyal D or R. Doesn’t mean my choices are more sound or more objective than yours, or MT’s. It’s just what works for me. (And also apparently a good portion of the electorate - the portion that just happens to decide most national elections.)
Your rants are just downright weird TBH. “Calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance”. Huh? WTH does that even mean. And indie voters “mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes.” Uh, okaaaaay.
But w/e, you do you.I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
I don't see how anyone who isn't a committed Republican already would consider voting for a member of the Trump/Jan. 6 party. At this point, just remaining a Republican pretty much ensures a candidate is not a good person at all, and certainly not the "best" candidate for any office.
I think you overestimate Trump’s grip on the party. The party is bigger than him. He makes a lot of noise and of course the media covers his every utterance. But in my opinion, he’s finished politically - just too much baggage from Jan. 6. Plus he’s an elderly fat crap, so who knows if he’ll even be alive in 2024.
Who knows how it’ll play out of course. But I think it’s quite feasible that a moderate Republican is the candidate in 2024. Christie, Hogan, Kasich — someone like that. They all have their warts I’m sure, but I don’t think supporting someone like that would be an indictment on one’s humanity, morality or character, despite the (R) after their name.
it's hilarious that you cling to every poll about Biden, and at the same time ignore every poll about Trump's continuing popularity among Republicans.
Christie?
I can't even...
like the poll that shows 27% of voters want Trump to run again?
https://www.newsweek.com/less-30-percent-voters-want-trump-biden-run-again-2024-poll-1671557
Wow he sounds like a shoo-in.
can't tell if you're joking, or just don't care
we're talking about getting the nomination.
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
I don't think Democrats should concern themselves with trying to reach people like this.
Democrats shouldn't concern themselves with reaching independent voters? That is an interesting and contrarian viewpoint. How do they win the electoral vote in '24?
that's what you think these people are? "independent" voters?
LOL
the independent voter notion is one of the most damaging parts of our political discourse. calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance. they're not independent. they mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes the way they do. yet we pretend they're independent - that they make sound, objective choices not based on party affiliation.
but I guess we mustn't offend them by telling the truth.
This is ridic. I’m an independent voter, which simply means I’m neither a registered Republican nor registered Democrat. I vote for who I think is the best candidate and whose beliefs align closest to my own. It doesn’t mean I’m a better or smarter voter vs a loyal D or R. Doesn’t mean my choices are more sound or more objective than yours, or MT’s. It’s just what works for me. (And also apparently a good portion of the electorate - the portion that just happens to decide most national elections.)
Your rants are just downright weird TBH. “Calling them independent mostly just elevates ignorance”. Huh? WTH does that even mean. And indie voters “mostly just have no clue as to why they cast their votes.” Uh, okaaaaay.
But w/e, you do you.I suppose there are still people who vote for who they think is the best person for the office. But if we're talking about President, Senate and House, the party means a LOT. A vote for a GOP Senate candidate is effectively a vote for Mitch McConnell as majority leader. A vote for a Republican House candidate is a vote for Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Jesus Christ himself could descend from the heavens, proving his divinity to me, and if he ran for Senate from NJ as as Republican, I wouldn't vote for Him. I'd vote for Satan if he rose from below in a cloud of sulfur if he was the Democrat.
I don't see how anyone who isn't a committed Republican already would consider voting for a member of the Trump/Jan. 6 party. At this point, just remaining a Republican pretty much ensures a candidate is not a good person at all, and certainly not the "best" candidate for any office.
I think you overestimate Trump’s grip on the party. The party is bigger than him. He makes a lot of noise and of course the media covers his every utterance. But in my opinion, he’s finished politically - just too much baggage from Jan. 6. Plus he’s an elderly fat crap, so who knows if he’ll even be alive in 2024.
Who knows how it’ll play out of course. But I think it’s quite feasible that a moderate Republican is the candidate in 2024. Christie, Hogan, Kasich — someone like that. They all have their warts I’m sure, but I don’t think supporting someone like that would be an indictment on one’s humanity, morality or character, despite the (R) after their name.
it's hilarious that you cling to every poll about Biden, and at the same time ignore every poll about Trump's continuing popularity among Republicans.
Christie?
I can't even...
like the poll that shows 27% of voters want Trump to run again?
https://www.newsweek.com/less-30-percent-voters-want-trump-biden-run-again-2024-poll-1671557
Wow he sounds like a shoo-in.
can't tell if you're joking, or just don't care
we're talking about getting the nomination.
maybe that’s not the best poll as it’s 47% dem and 36% Rep, but even assuming 100% of Ds in that poll don’t want Trump to run, that’s still a fair amount of Rs who also don’t want Trump to run.
As is elaborated on here https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/590553-trump-by-the-numbers-2024-isnt-simple
“More concerning for Trump is how much his primary test vote falls off from his approval ratings. Trump sees a 25-point to 35-point fall-off from his approval ratings when Republicans are asked if they actually want to vote for him. His disapproval numbers among Republicans hover in the mid-teens, yet the percentage of Republicans who do not want him to run ranges from 23 to 30 percent.”
So as per usual things aren’t as simple as you make them out to be.
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Most registered independents *lean* toward a party, as per the Pew research you cited. Most registered independents do not "actually follow a party line," as you claim. There's a big difference in meaning of the words lean and follow. If you do not know this you should consult a dictionary.