The Making of the President 2016

It appears that Hillary has won in the Nevada Caucuses 52%-48%. She carried the County in which Las Vegas is located by a large margin. Sanders did better in the other parts of the State.

South Carolina polls just closed at 7:00 PM


AP is reporting that Trump has won the SC Republican primary.


According to exit polls, Hillary won because of a huge margin among African Americans (72-22).  Bernie won among Hispanic/Latinos (53-45) and whites (49-47) votes. 

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/NV

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-16903922

Bernie needs to do more outreach to African Americans to overcome the comment by John Lewis.  Perhaps this photo discovered by the Chicago Tribune will help:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-bernie-sanders-1963-chicago-arrest-20160219-story.html


In the SC Primary Trump has come in 11% points above Rubio and Cruz, may have won all the South Carolina Delegates and nevertheless Rubio and Cruz made victory speeches.

Win-Win-Win. It's great to be a Republican candidate!


hell,Jeb's "no mas" speech practically sounded like a victory speech.


Rubio is going to make America great again again.


LOST said:

In the SC Primary Trump has come in 11% points above Rubio and Cruz, may have won all the South Carolina Delegates and nevertheless Rubio and Cruz made victory speeches.

Win-Win-Win. It's great to be a Republican candidate!

Rubio at least had grounds for his position. Except for Kaisich, who will probably drop out after Ohio, he is the only 'establishment' candidate left. If he can turn it in to 2 man race between Trump and himself and keep the delegate numbers close in the primaries and caucuses, he would stand a good chance of getting enough establishment votes (GOP Senators, Governors etc.) to win the nomination.

He could also claim polls (which could change) show HRC beating Trump but losing to him. Don't ask me why.

I've already posted this but will post it again for those who may have missed it

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html


Cruz may not let Rubio turn it into a two man race.

If Kasich loses in Ohio it is very likely he will drop out, but what if he wins?

The best news for Hillary Clinton yesterday may not have been her win in Nevada but the end of Bush's campaign.


Can someone explain Primaries & Caucuses 101? I'm not quite sure I understand who is voting in SC and NH. I haven't paid that much attention in the past because frankly, there hasn't been a crop of GOP candidates as frightening to me as Trump and Cruz. 


TarheelsInNj said:

Can someone explain Primaries & Caucuses 101? I'm not quite sure I understand who is voting in SC and NH. I haven't paid that much attention in the past because frankly, there hasn't been a crop of GOP candidates as frightening to me as Trump and Cruz. 

It's a mixed bag, because different states apportion delegates in different ways; you'd have to look up each one. For instance, some primaries are restricted to registered members of the party, while others are open, allowing voters to choose which primary to participate in. Caucus rules are famously idiosyncratic. Some states are winner-take-all regarding delegates; others apportion delegates according to varying formulas. The South Carolina Republican primary, for instance, awards 29 delegates to the overall winner, and one delegate to the winner in each of the 21 congressional districts. (That's why you may have heard talk of Trump's aiming to go "50 for 50": 29 for the statewide vote and 21 for victories in all the districts.)


Tarheels,

I guess you can get more info on the net, but very briefly each State can decide for itself how to pick its Delegates to the National Conventions. They can choose a Primary or a Caucus system. A Primary is fairly straightforward. It's like an Election, everyone goes to the Polls, goes into a voting booth and votes. A Caucus is a Meeting. You go to a Meeting and the Meeting chooses Delegates to go to the Convention. But the people at the Meeting are going to pick those people based on which Presidential Candidate they support.

If you are really interested find out which State will have a Caucus and see if C-Span is covering it. If so you can actually watch the Caucus (Meeting) take place. 


Dave,

I think you gave him a more advanced course, 102 or 103 not 101.  oh oh 


Trump won all 50 delegates in SC, even though he won only 33% of the vote.


I just saw the three top Republican Candidates on TV.

Trump is, well, Trump.

Rubio thinks the last 7 years under Obama has been ruinous for America. Does he really have no memory of how Bush left the country?

Cruz thinks he can win the Presidency by appealing only to the most extremely Conservative voters. He even lost the Evangelicals to Trump in SC.

Are these guys nuts or am I?


Kasich:

" I finished second in New Hampshire, he (Marco) finished fifth".

"Just because someone is of the Muslim faith doesn't make him a terrorist".

At least one of the Republican candidates is sane.


Is anyone reading this thread?


LOST said:

Is anyone reading this thread?

I watched the Kasich interview. He definitely comes over as reasonable. It's crazy that reasonable is now the benchmark.


LOST said:

Dave,

I think you gave him a more advanced course, 102 or 103 not 101.  <img src="> 

I assumed TarheelsInNj had a sip from our alma mater's Old Well, so was up for it.  cheese 


DaveSchmidt said:
LOST said:

Dave,

I think you gave him a more advanced course, 102 or 103 not 101.  <img src="> 

I assumed TarheelsInNj had a sip from our alma mater's Old Well, so was up for it.  <img src="> 

 smile 

I guess what I really want to understand is if these are "regular" people voting. And thus is this actually reflective of the general election, aka Trump could *actually* win?! 

I know there's some amount of base-pandering and such, but it seems the GOP establishment base isn't on board with Trump either, so...what gives?


LOST said:

Cruz may not let Rubio turn it into a two man race.

If Kasich loses in Ohio it is very likely he will drop out, but what if he wins?

The best news for Hillary Clinton yesterday may not have been her win in Nevada but the end of Bush's campaign.

If it remains a 3 man race with Cruz in it it will be to Rubio's advantage as it will split the 'outsider vote"


TarheelsInNj said:
DaveSchmidt said:
LOST said:

Dave,

I think you gave him a more advanced course, 102 or 103 not 101.  <img src="> 

I assumed TarheelsInNj had a sip from our alma mater's Old Well, so was up for it.  <img src="> 

 <img src="> 


I guess what I really want to understand is if these are "regular" people voting. And thus is this actually reflective of the general election, aka Trump could *actually* win?! 

I know there's some amount of base-pandering and such, but it seems the GOP establishment base isn't on board with Trump either, so...what gives?

The establishment base may not be on board because, contrary to Trumps claim, he loses to both HRC and Bernie (the one who beats all Republicans) and they are fearful with him at the head of the ticket it could cause serious damage further down the line.

As I pointed out, it is possible the super delegates could throw the nomination to Rubio with their votes.


ridski said:
LOST said:

Is anyone reading this thread?

I watched the Kasich interview. He definitely comes over as reasonable. It's crazy that reasonable is now the benchmark.

He's not just reasonable, he has the best resume of all of the GOP. Being seen as part of the 'establishment' has no doubt cost him.


BCC said:
ridski said:
LOST said:

Is anyone reading this thread?

I watched the Kasich interview. He definitely comes over as reasonable. It's crazy that reasonable is now the benchmark.

He's not just reasonable, he has the best resume of all of the GOP. Being seen as part of the 'establishment' has no doubt cost him.

Agree. Sad, but true. Maybe the GOP needs to "consummate" their affair with right wingers by nominating Trump, losing big in '16, and then breaking with the money behind this ultra-con movement...Adelson, Kochs, etc.


No pride of ownership but can't we just discuss the Presidential Campaign in one thread?


LOST said:

I just saw the three top Republican Candidates on TV.

Trump is, well, Trump.

Rubio thinks the last 7 years under Obama has been ruinous for America. Does he really have no memory of how Bush left the country?

.....

I hear the "ruinous" meme from my fox-news father (he loves carson!).  I am still not sure what they are pointing to when they say ruinous.  Do They think the ACA is ruinous or has been ruinous?  Do They actually believe the wrong-headed notion that the top 1 percent should be paying less taxes than they are now? What are they looking at that i am not?  


They live in a world where unemployment runs rampant, everyone is paying more to a doctor they didn't choose, ISIS is determined to strike in Bumpkinland (rather than NYC or DC), the military is vastly underfunded, etc. It's the world of right wing Fox and hate radio. 


How many Republicans will take this position?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/erick-erickson-donald-trump-2016-219603?lo=ap_a1


GL2 said:

They live in a world where unemployment runs rampant, everyone is paying more to a doctor they didn't choose, ISIS is determined to strike in Bumpkinland (rather than NYC or DC), the military is vastly underfunded, etc. It's the world of right wing Fox and hate radio. 

I listen to Howie Carr on my way home every night. I'm not sure what cognitive dissonance is - but I'm pretty sure it's Howie and his listeners.

"The economy is crumbling! Unemployment is out of control! There are no jobs!"

1 hour later

"What is it with kids today, whining about low wages and lack of opportunity? In my day..."


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