High Wind WARNING Extended Until 1:00 pm

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) of the NWS haas upgraded Wednesday's risk of severe thunderstorms from marginal to slight.

Thunderstorms Wednesday will precede a cold front. Two waves of precipitation wIll move through the area Wednesday morning and afternoon/evening. In the afternoon, thunderstorms are likely, with a slight chance of a severe storms forming, with high, gusty winds, much like the squall line that came through last week.

There is also a slight but growing chance of a little snow on Friday, but a more serious chance of what right now looks like heavy rain Sunday/Monday.

All that notwithstanding, there are some very interesting outlier possibilities for the next week. I'll keep an eye on it, and update tonight.

I am following three events right now: the storms coming in from the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (they are likely to be surprisingly severe for this time of year today in the mid-south); a clipper on Friday that could bring a period of heavy snow; and what looks right now like heavy rain Sunday-Monday.

At this time, the best forecast is thunderstorms possible tomorrow, chance of light snow Friday, and rain Sunday/Monday. I'll let you know if it changes tonight.

The forecast remains on track for Wednesday and Friday.

There remains a significant chance of rain tomorrow, heavy at times. There remains a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. The forecast instability has not gotten worse, so the chance of severe storms remains but also remains slight. Barring a major shift in the models, we can expect a squall line in the late afternoon, like the one Saturday. Like that event, there will be locally heavy rain and gusty winds. This is more of an issue west and south of us than here. Chances are that this will be a now-cast event, as is often the case with these types of systems (although not usually in March, this is acting more like a summer storm).

If anything, the chance of significant weather Friday is diminishing, with only one model showing anything more than an inch or two of snow.

Long range models are suggesting temperatures in the 80s for at least a few days later this month.

did you just say 80s??? as in 80 degrees????

boookwormnj said:

did you just say 80s??? as in 80 degrees????

That is the trend right now in the longer-range models.

The short-term forecast remains largely on track.

Rain likely today, starting around 9:00 with a short break in the afternoon. Heavy rain and thunderstorms possible this morning, with an added slight chance of severe storms this afternoon. Should there be a severe storm, the biggest risk would come from high winds.

Tonight, rain continues, then windy, with a wind advisory (see below) for Thursday.

Friday, chance of light snow or rain and snow, no more than an inch or two if it happens at all.

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
345 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...Strong Gusty Winds Late Tonight and Thursday...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind Advisory,
which is in effect from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph.

* Timing...Late tonight and Thursday, with the strongest winds
most likely during Thursday morning.

* Impacts...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

Best guess is the line of storms comes through about 4:00 - 5:00 pm. A warning level storm is possible, with high winds. Pay attention to the location of any warnings, as the phone apps often are not quite precise, and we will be on the northern edge of any warning zone.

The line should pass through over the course of an hour or so, then only scattered showers behind them.

So that line of storms?

Missed us to the south. Hitting the shore now.

Wind advisory overnight as the front moves through, but any further rain is just scattered showers.

Max - whats your best guess on Friday? At the shore right now - planning to drive home late tomorrow afternoon or Friday morning. Which is the better travel day? Thanks.

I don't think you will have a big issue either day, but tomorrow will be windy and the precipitation Friday is only 50/50, so I would take the extra day and relax.

High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
314 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

...Strong Gusty Winds into this morning...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
021615-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170302T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0003.170302T0814Z-170302T1600Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
314 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect until 11 AM EST this morning.

* Winds...West 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 to 60 mph.

* Timing...Strongest winds this morning.

* Impacts...Strong winds can blow down limbs, trees, and power
lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.