Showers and Thunderstorms Likely this Afternoon, Tuesday May 15

Warm temperatures will bring increased instability, rain, and likely some thunderstorms. There is a risk that there may be a severe storm this afternoon, with strong gusts.


Here is the latest model run showing the potential for strong gusts and heavy rain in thunderstorms this afternoon.


At least it's not the derecho that hit Virginia:

https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/derecho-moves-through-mid-atlantic

First time I ever heard of that term, just got off the phone with a friend down there - they lost power - still waiting for the cable/internet to return.


I might be riding my bike through it. So I brought a change of clothes.


Looks like it will hit around the evening rush hour... 


jamie said:
At least it's not the derecho that hit Virginia:
https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/derecho-moves-through-mid-atlantic

First time I ever heard of that term, just got off the phone with a friend down there - they lost power - still waiting for the cable/internet to return.

 It was a derecho that took out all the trees on Midland Ave a few years ago.


Uodated risk assessment from the Storm Prediction Center at NOAA.  You don't want these guys talking about your town!


max_weisenfeld said:


jamie said:
At least it's not the derecho that hit Virginia:
https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/derecho-moves-through-mid-atlantic

First time I ever heard of that term, just got off the phone with a friend down there - they lost power - still waiting for the cable/internet to return.
 It was a derecho that took out all the trees on Midland Ave a few years ago.

 ah ok - I always thought that was a microburst.  I see a derecho involves a squall line (now I have to see what defines a squall line)   grin 

A downburst that is small in size is called a microburst. A microburst is just a very strong downburst. The wind created by it is so strong that it can knock over trees and is a danger to airplanes. ... These winds along an entire squall line can cause a derecho.    


Expect warnings sometime after 4:00.


jamie said:


max_weisenfeld said:

jamie said:
At least it's not the derecho that hit Virginia:
https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/derecho-moves-through-mid-atlantic

First time I ever heard of that term, just got off the phone with a friend down there - they lost power - still waiting for the cable/internet to return.
 It was a derecho that took out all the trees on Midland Ave a few years ago.
 ah ok - I always thought that was a microburst.  I see a derecho involves a squall line (now I have to see what defines a squall line)   grin 
A downburst that is small in size is called a microburst. A microburst is just a very strong downburst. The wind created by it is so strong that it can knock over trees and is a danger to airplanes. ... These winds along an entire squall line can cause a derecho.    

 One way to think about it is a microburst is shaped like an inverted mushroom, and goes down then in all directions radially.  A derecho is a straight-line wind.


There is a significant threat of a Derecho from this system today. Whether the worst part of that derecho impacts us remains to be seen. Gusts of 70-80mph have already been measured with storms to the west.


And yes @jamie, it was a microburst a few years ago. Not a Derecho. Derechos are MUCH larger scale.


The NWS NYC just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for maplewood on a storm thats an hour and a half away...


Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
CTC001-009-NJC003-013-031-039-NYC071-079-087-119-152100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0003.180515T1934Z-180515T2100Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
334 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018
The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...  Northwestern Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...  Northwestern New Haven County in southern Connecticut...  Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey...  Northwestern Union County in northeastern New Jersey...  Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey...  Essex County in northeastern New Jersey...  Westchester County in southeastern New York...  Orange County in southeastern New York...  Putnam County in southeastern New York...  Rockland County in southeastern New York...
* Until 500 PM EDT.
* At 331 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line  extending from Hazel to near Lava to New Boston-Morea, moving east  at 70 mph.
  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
  SOURCE...Radar indicated.
  IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect           considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.
* Severe thunderstorms will be near...  Howells around 350 PM EDT.  Montgomery around 400 PM EDT.  Walden around 405 PM EDT.  Newburgh and New Windsor around 410 PM EDT.  Fahnestock State Park around 420 PM EDT.  Lake Carmel around 425 PM EDT.  Brookfield and New Fairfield around 435 PM EDT.  Danbury and Newtown around 440 PM EDT.  Summit and Southbury around 450 PM EDT.  Waterbury and Naugatuck around 455 PM EDT.  Bloomfield and Rutherford around 500 PM EDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These storms have a history of producing wind damage. Winds gusted
to 64 mph in Scranton PA at 317 PM. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows!
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Upton NY.
Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.
Continuous cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with these
storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s
leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

That storm was 10 years ago next month. The morning after I took a walk around the neighborhood and over by Midland and took a bunch of photos. Here's what I saw: 


http://tom-mcgee.com/archives/761


tom said:
That storm was 10 years ago next month. The morning after I took a walk around the neighborhood and over by Midland and took a bunch of photos. Here's what I saw: 


http://tom-mcgee.com/archives/761

 Yeah that was very much a microburst. I was in morristown at the time, I cant believe I missed it.


Any advice regarding computers during these storms?


Make sure your phone is charged. Everybody's power and cable went out, so no internet from your laptop even if it's charged.


I dont think these storms pose much of a risk for microbursts. That said, they do pose a threat for significant straight line wind.


When will the full force of this storm hit the SOMA area? I'm taking an 8:05 train home tonight. 


phenixrising said:
When will the full force of this storm hit the SOMA area? I'm taking an 8:05 train home tonight. 

Well before then. 


WxNut2.0 said:


phenixrising said:
When will the full force of this storm hit the SOMA area? I'm taking an 8:05 train home tonight. 
Well before then. 

 Great! Thanks WxNut2.0   grin 



WxNut2.0 said:


tom said:
That storm was 10 years ago next month. The morning after I took a walk around the neighborhood and over by Midland and took a bunch of photos. Here's what I saw: 


http://tom-mcgee.com/archives/761
 Yeah that was very much a microburst. I was in morristown at the time, I cant believe I missed it.

 I stand corrected.


I’m in basking ridge in a gas station off 78 east. The sky is green!


mem said:
I’m in basking ridge in a gas station off 78 east. The sky is green!

 green? Rally? oh boy that is scary


I lived three blocks from Midland where the microburst damage was worst. I took a tour of Midland the next day. It was pretty upsetting.


very dark, with low, dark grey clouds and wind picking up quickly. Fascinating to watch...but I hope there is no significant damage from it.


Getting pretty good greenage in the sky here too. That's a hail indicator. 


How long is this expected to last?



jules867 said:
How long is this expected to last?


 Not too long, at least not the heavy stuff.


Although we will remain under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11:00 this evening, the major line of storms has passed and the Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been lifted.


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