Final snow total, 6.3" here, 15"+ on Long Island

Both the GFS and the EURO are showing a system with the potential to drop 6" on us overnight Wed.

Most of the energy for this event is still part of an off-shore mess in the Pacific Ocean right now, but both major long range models have shown substantial (1+ inches) of qpf (water) in this system. We will be near the rain snow divide on this one, so we will have to watch the track as the system comes on shore to fine-tune predictions.



Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 AM EST MON FEB 6 2017

1051 AM EST MON FEB 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR PLOWABLE SNOW IS INCREASING AND THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES.

UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM IS HIGH AS THE ATMOSPHERE DYNAMICS THAT
WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE THE STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR COAST ARE
STILL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS STORM, IF IT DOES DEVELOP,
SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER AND BE OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


The models are still in some disagreement on this one, particularly in the timing, but there are some trends.

We will get some form of precipitation. Likely, the heavier precipitation will be east and south as this is a clipper not a noreaster. The NWS has put a chit on 4 - 8" of snow regionally. I will post the map down below, but take it with a hefty grain of salt right now. We will know more when the energy comes onshore. Unfortunately, that won't be until midday tomorrow. given time for the models to sample and process it, expect that we will not get settled forecasts until Wednesday morning.

This system will likely screw with the commute Thursday morning. Timing right now is after midnight Wednesday night until noon Thursday, and right now the precipitation goes rain-snow-rain. The good news is that ice accumulation looks unlikely, and we are not showing serious wind, although the coast and Long Island might be.


Forecast continues to be not very clear in the details. Still waiting for the energy to come in off the Pacific to where it can be easily measured and plugged into the models in detail.

That said, all models are in agreement on the fact that there will be a storm, and that it will occur between Wednesday evening and Tuesday Thursday midday or early afternoon. Expect advisories to be up, probably Wednesday morning, with at least a storm watch for our area and warnings elsewhere in the region.

Most likely forecast is for 4-6" of snow. In this scenarion, the storm starts as rain Wednesday evening, changing over to snow after midnight. By morning commute we could be contending with several inches on the ground and heavy ongoing snowfall.

But...

The range in the models right now is from a 1-2" near miss to a pretty epic crushing, so stay tuned. The worst cases are from models that tend to be less accurate at 48+ hours, which is why the forecast from the NWS leans more toward the Euro's solution.

Today, warm rain.



max_weisenfeld said:

Forecast continues to be not very clear in the details. Still waiting for the energy to come in off the Pacific to where it can be easily measured and plugged into the models in detail.

That said, all models are in agreement on the fact that there will be a storm, and that it will occur between Wednesday evening and Tuesday midday or early afternoon. Expect advisories to be up, probably Wednesday morning, with at least a storm watch for our area and warnings elsewhere in the region.

Most likely forecast is for 4-6" of snow. In this scenarion, the storm starts as rain Wednesday evening, changing over to snow after midnight. By morning commute we could be contending with several inches on the ground and heavy ongoing snowfall.

But...

The range in the models right now is from a 1-2" near miss to a pretty epic crushing, so stay tuned. The worst cases are from models that tend to be less accurate at 48+ hours, which is why the forecast from the NWS leans more toward the Euro's solution.

Today, warm rain.

Wednesday through Tuesday? Is the storm now expected to last for a week?


it's a time vortex thing.

joan_crystal said:



max_weisenfeld said:

Forecast continues to be not very clear in the details. Still waiting for the energy to come in off the Pacific to where it can be easily measured and plugged into the models in detail.

That said, all models are in agreement on the fact that there will be a storm, and that it will occur between Wednesday evening and Tuesday midday or early afternoon. Expect advisories to be up, probably Wednesday morning, with at least a storm watch for our area and warnings elsewhere in the region.

Most likely forecast is for 4-6" of snow. In this scenarion, the storm starts as rain Wednesday evening, changing over to snow after midnight. By morning commute we could be contending with several inches on the ground and heavy ongoing snowfall.

But...

The range in the models right now is from a 1-2" near miss to a pretty epic crushing, so stay tuned. The worst cases are from models that tend to be less accurate at 48+ hours, which is why the forecast from the NWS leans more toward the Euro's solution.

Today, warm rain.

Wednesday through Tuesday? Is the storm now expected to last for a week?




joan_crystal said:



max_weisenfeld said:

Forecast continues to be not very clear in the details. Still waiting for the energy to come in off the Pacific to where it can be easily measured and plugged into the models in detail.

That said, all models are in agreement on the fact that there will be a storm, and that it will occur between Wednesday evening and Tuesday midday or early afternoon. Expect advisories to be up, probably Wednesday morning, with at least a storm watch for our area and warnings elsewhere in the region.

Most likely forecast is for 4-6" of snow. In this scenarion, the storm starts as rain Wednesday evening, changing over to snow after midnight. By morning commute we could be contending with several inches on the ground and heavy ongoing snowfall.

But...

The range in the models right now is from a 1-2" near miss to a pretty epic crushing, so stay tuned. The worst cases are from models that tend to be less accurate at 48+ hours, which is why the forecast from the NWS leans more toward the Euro's solution.

Today, warm rain.

Wednesday through Tuesday? Is the storm now expected to last for a week?

He didn't tell you which Tuesday, did he? My money's on July 11th, 2017.


What's the current likelihood of a snow day Thursday -- 50%? Thank you.


Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
322 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...Winter Storm Watch Late Wednesday Night and Thursday...

CTZ007>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179-
080500-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.170209T0500Z-170209T2300Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
322 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Watch...which is in effect from late Wednesday night through
Thursday afternoon.

* Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches...locally
higher.

* Locations...Long Island...New York City...Northeast New
Jersey...the Lower Hudson Valley of New York...and Southern
Connecticut.

* Hazard types...Heavy snow.

* Timing...Late Wednesday night through Thursday.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel due to snow covered roads and poor
visibilities. Blowing and drifting snow is possible.

* Temperatures...In the 30s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.



Vivaldo said:

What's the current likelihood of a snow day Thursday -- 50%? Thank you.

Forecasting the behavior of the school district is beyond my skill set...


Did I read the NWS thing correctly - 6-10 inches is the forecast?


Thanks for the update, Max! Sounds like we're up to 70%.

max_weisenfeld said:



Vivaldo said:

What's the current likelihood of a snow day Thursday -- 50%? Thank you.

Forecasting the behavior of the school district is beyond my skill set...



Daughter has a field trip on Thursday so up the probs to 75%. If they preemptively cancel, we can lower the odds back to 5%.


ARRGGGGHHH!!! I have a long-awaited Dr. Appt Thurs at 9a.m. of course.



TigerLilly said:

ARRGGGGHHH!!! I have a long-awaited Dr. Appt Thurs at 9a.m. of course.

I'm supposed to be off to St Thomas, so.... I win the "whose Thursday sucks more" contest on this one. LOL




case said:



TigerLilly said:

ARRGGGGHHH!!! I have a long-awaited Dr. Appt Thurs at 9a.m. of course.

I'm supposed to be off to St Thomas, so.... I win the "whose Thursday sucks more" contest on this one. LOL

You win. Hands down.


Ok, I have had some time to look at the models, and I have to think the above graphic is conservative.

This is going to be a fast storm, starting as rain Wednesday night into early Thursday, with changeover coming in time to completely screw up the Thursday morning commute. The changeover will probably be sudden, with little sleet and icing, and might happen with deceptively light snow falling.

There is a strong likelihood that the heavy snow bands will set up quickly, with a change from lighter snow to white out snow moving quickly through the area. Although heavy snow would continue for only a few hours, at 2"/hour or more it will pile up quickly. Currently, the general consensus has the storm tapering off after 1:00pm but lighter snow continuing for a couple of hours. The evening rush is more in peril from slow/late plowing response than new precipitation in this scenario.

If I had to put a pin in it right now, I would say 8 - 10" for our area, with the potential to go to 12" if banding sets up right over us.

Unfortunately, the models still have not fully incorporated data on this system yet, but by late tonight or tomorrow morning we should have a better idea.


yikes-a-wowzie!

Am I going to have to wear long pants?


I don't even bother with the weather reports on the news anymore. I just rely on Maxcheese



Vivaldo said:

What's the current likelihood of a snow day Thursday -- 50%? Thank you.

I'd bet much higher than that. Overnight snow continuing through mid morning and likely upwards of 6-8". I'd say assume it's going to be closed.



conandrob240 said:



Vivaldo said:

What's the current likelihood of a snow day Thursday -- 50%? Thank you.

I'd bet much higher than that. Overnight snow continuing through mid morning and likely upwards of 6-8". I'd say assume it's going to be closed.

Combined with not having used snow days this winter...


dano said:

I don't even bother with the weather reports on the news anymore. I just rely on Maxcheese

Same!


The NWS has upped the forecast to 6-10", and upped the watch to a warning.

Warning posted below. I need a little more time to look at the details, but I doubt I will substatially disagree.


Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
342 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...Winter Storm Warning Late Tonight and Thursday...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
081645-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.170209T0500Z-170209T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.170209T0500Z-170209T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
342 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow...which is in effect from midnight tonight
to 6 PM EST Thursday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in
effect.

* Accumulations...6 to 10 inches of snow.

* Locations...New York City, Long Island, Southern Connecticut,
the Lower Hudson Valley and Northeastern New Jersey.

* Hazard type...Heavy snow.

* Timing...Late tonight through Thursday.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel due to snow covered roads and poor
visibilities. Blowing and drifting snow is possible.

* Winds...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph.

* Visibilities...1/2 to 1/4 mile at times.

* Temperatures...Around 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$


PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$




With the wintry mix now supposed to start earlier - DiMartino had been saying 5 am and now he says 2 am -- I think the snow day is a virtual lock.


DiMartino has been uncharacteristically late to the party this time. I think his timing was thrown off by his focus on th Philly area. We were never that late here, changeover was always progged for 1 - 3 am


Nothing much changes with a closer look. The models appear to have had a fairly good handle on this one for a couple of days, and are in fair agreement for our area now.

The key take-aways are:

Rain near or after midnight tonight amid rapidly falling temperatures turns suddenly to snow with very little mixing well before daybreak.

Snow, heavy at times, through the morning. Thursday morning commute heavily impacted, be prepared to work from home if that is an option.

Snow tapers off slowly after noon, done by the evening commute although residual issues my persist as crews try to catch up.

Light snow possible Friday, rain possible over the weekend.

Total snow tonight and tomorrow should be 8-10"


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