FLASH FLOOD WARNING Tropical Storm Fay Friday July 10th

First off, you don't really need me to tell you that today and tomorrow are going to continue warm and humid with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoons, right?

Anyway, there is a low pressure system moving up the coast and near our area Friday into Saturday.  There will be a fairly substantial period of heavy rain with this system, but exactly where is not yet known.  My best bet would put the heaviest rain to our east, but I have very little confidence in this forecast, so plan accordingly.


Poo! I was hoping to take Friday off from work and head down to Island Beach State Park. 


Willing to get wet if it leads to a break in this hot humid weather pattern.


The NWS has issued a Heat Advisory for this afternoon, July 8. Heat and humidity combined could cause a heat index of 98°. Stay out of the sun and be sure to stay hydrated.

Details:

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 524 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 NJZ004-006-103>108-082200- /O.NEW.KOKX.HT.Y.0001.200708T1600Z-200709T2200Z/ Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- 524 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 98 expected.

* WHERE...Bergen, Eastern Passaic, Hudson, Essex, and Union Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.


here's a handy chart


Thanks Max!  I always look forward to your forecasts - so much more reliable than the local news


Rain on the way this afternoon.


(Not yet) Tropical Storm Fay


The trend in the models over the last two cycles (12 hours) has the low pressure system that is currently off the Carolinas becoming a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches us on Friday. Track and timing are still quite uncertain, but again the last couple of runs have been moving the storm track west over New Jersey, so plan no picnics for Friday (or Saturday morning, for that matter.   

Still a very uncertain forecast, and this is still not looking like a major storm, but it is only 48 hours out now and I thought I had better give a heads up that this is a possibility.


Ok. Weak or not I'm still happy we had the two dead oak trees towering over our backyard (and house) removed!


Though hardly pleasant, it did not feel like one of those killer, worst of summer heat/humidity days I thought we were getting.


You mean like every other day has felt lately?!?


As of this morning, Thur 7/9, there continues to be some disagreement between the models on the track and speed of (not yet) tropical storm Fay. The consensus is that we can expect rain Friday afternoon and evening, possibly heavy at times, with the possibilities of thunderstorms. The storm itself is expected to be quite narrow, only about 60 - 100 miles wide, which is why the variances in track of only 50 miles west or east are still giving such disparate results.

Meanwhile, a heat advisory remains in effect for today.


National Hurricane Center just posted this to their Twitter account.  Looks like some weather heading our way but I'll await the consensus of the MOL experts.


there's that cone again

I'm uncertain.

ETA: then again, that looks like a dead on hit.


Pleased to announce that at 5:00pm on Thursday July 9th TROPICAL STORM FAY was born.At about the same time, a FLASH FLOOD WATCH was announced to our area, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for Coastal New Jersey, New York Bay, and the south shore of Long Island, but not MAPSO (watch and warning details in the next few comments).

Expect heavy rain Friday afternoon and evening, possibly into Saturday morning. Winds of 30 MPH are also possible.The actual forecast has not changed much, although now that the storm has formed a new and distinct center the NWS should be able to get a better read on track and speed. This storm is interesting in that it is the third tropical storm in a row (Dolly and Eduard preceding it) to form so far north. This is very early in the season to have had six storms and it is weird, especially this early in the season, to have three form this far north. The northerly formation is the main reason we are getting so little consensus in the models with less than 24 hours to go before landfall.

Mr Incredible posted the forecast track but I want to emphasize that there is still a wide discrepancy in the models and there is a lot of wiggle room within the cone of uncertainty, with various model runs ranging from less than an inch to over 3 inches of rain in various locations.

Here is MAPSO winds ought to be just below tropical storm strength, but the western border of the warning area is very close to us so I will put the warning in the comments below just as an FYI.


We should have more accurate details in the morning.


Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
405 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
100915-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0001.200710T1000Z-200711T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
405 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for Southern Connecticut, Northeast New
  Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long Island.

* From Friday morning through Friday evening.

* Heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast
  Friday into Friday evening. A total of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
  is forecast with locally higher amounts possible. Torrential
  rainfall within a short period of time will be possible and this
  could lead to flooding of low lying, urban and poor drainage
  areas. Some smaller streams and rivers could exceed bankfull.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

THIS TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT IN MAPSO BUT JUST EAST OF US. Please read carefully.

NJZ106-100545-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TR.W.1006.200709T2139Z-000000T0000Z/
Eastern Essex-
539 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Newark
    - Belleville
    - Nutley

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Friday afternoon
          until Friday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
          completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - No storm surge inundation forecast

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
      surge flooding
        - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
          Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
          currents are possible.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
          are needed.
        - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
          forecasts.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher
          amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
          currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - https://www.essexsheriff.com
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes



As of this morning, Fri July 10, TROPICAL STORM FAY is on track to run up the New Jersey coast this afternoon. Immediately effects in the MAPSO area are likely to include heavy rain, thunderstorms, possibly severe, and wind gusts in the 30 - 40 mph range. As of 6:00am Fay is just off the Delmarva peninsula.

Overcast early this morning, with showers developing after 10. Heavier rain moves in after noon, with the height of the storm late this afternoon and into the early evening. The storm will move through relatively quickly, and we should be back to showers well before midnight.

Rain potential is 1 - 3 inches, with more if there are significant thunderstorms. The highest winds will also be directly connected to any thunderstorms that develop, and there is a very slight chance of a tornado.

As a result, the area is under a FLASH FLOOD WATCH at this time. In addition, the is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect as far west as parts of Irvington and Newark. While not directly under a warning, we should note its proximity.

At this time the storm seems to be trending on the eastern side of the forecast track which, if it continues, will take it a bit further away from us and lessen the storm's effects. However, we are well within the forecast spread and should continue to pay attention to NWS weather reporting as the storm develops.


Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-061-081-085-102030-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0014.200710T1730Z-200710T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
130 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Eastern Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Union County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Essex County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Queens County in southeastern New York...
  Richmond County in southeastern New York...
  Bronx County in southeastern New York...
  Kings County in southeastern New York...
  New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 128 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
  begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  New York, Newark, Jersey City, Elizabeth, Passaic, Bayonne,
  Hoboken, Plainfield, Bloomfield, Hackensack, Linden, Summit,
  Lyndhurst, Millburn and Rutherford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 7427 4060 7422 4060 7446 4067 7440
      4067 7446 4077 7437 4091 7416 4092 7392
      4085 7375 4082 7378 4077 7374 4065 7373
      4062 7377 4058 7374 4053 7394 4057 7393
      4056 7401 4060 7403 4052 7413 4050 7424

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

Scene from the bridge on Oakview Ave in Memorial park. The river has reached the top of the retaining walls.


CBS News just reported a downed tree in Maplewood that injured someone.  They report the person is expected to be OK.


Yikes. 

Here are a couple of shots on Meadowbrook at the bottom of Floods Hill. One shows the height of the river (right up to the top of the banks) and the other shows the storm drain a few feet away.


Video upload didn't work. This is in Memorial Park in Maplewood near the playground.


Looking downstream from the little bridge on Oakland.


sure is wet out there.

Consider that an eyewitness report.


The river rose quickly, but started to receede just as quickly.  I drove down Pierson Road around 5:20 PM, golf course was flooded (with paddle boarder enjoying the event).  When I returned about 25 min later, water level was already going down (banks are visible again in 3rd photo), and Saturday AM the golf course was largely drained.




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