Pfizer, Biontech Announce COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate is 90% Effective

It just happened. Dow futures up 700+ points. 

eta - Dow future +1100.

eta - +1400

eta - +1500


Great news and great timing.  For Biden to have a chance to get a good start, we need a relatively prompt final approval announcement for one of these drugs and the beginnings of a rollout.  


"U.S pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and German biotech firm BioNTech said their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection, according to data published Monday from their late-stage vaccine trial."

........... 

"The companies said they planned to submit for emergency use authorization to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration soon after they have two months of data, which is currently on track for the third week of November.

Based on current projections, Pfizer and BioNTech expect to produce up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020, and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021.

The companies said they plan to submit data from the full phase three trial, which began on July 27, for scientific peer-review publication."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html


It's a two shot vaccine, three weeks apart. 90% is incredible - I don't think anyone thought that could be achieved. 50-70% was being talked about. 


The CEO of Pfizer is now being interviewed on CNBC.



Wow. 

There was an internet meme about the Halloween full moon rebooting 2020. I'm starting to be a believer.

Now we need a robust and well managed distribution plan.


No doubt Trump will be complaining that the news was held back to hurt him.


We just have to vigilant and not let our guard down, until such time as people have easy access to the vaccine. Gov. Murphy is on CNBC now talking about some of the measures that will be taken because of the rising number of cases in NJ.  


bub said:

No doubt Trump will be complaining that the news was held back to hurt him.

 no doubt. His cult was saying this back in the spring. Because the rest of the world would let the virus continue to kill their people just to hurt the Donald. 


There was a report on 60 Minutes about this vaccine last night.

As mentioned above, it's two shots that have to be taken three weeks apart and it has to be stored at -80 degrees Celsius (on dry ice).  Many places are not capable of proper storage.  It's not an easy thing distribute properly.  

A woman on the show said they are hoping to vaccinate 70% of adults in New Jersey within 6 months, which I thought was extremely optimistic.

And they still only have a fraction of the total doses needed for the U.S.  It's going to take a while to roll this out.


mrincredible said:

Wow. 

There was an internet meme about the Halloween full moon rebooting 2020. I'm starting to be a believer.

Now we need a robust and well managed distribution plan.

I watched the referenced 60 minutes piece too and it was clear that the development of the “robust and well-managed distribution plan” by the military is clearly in the works.


It's possible they could license the vaccine formula to other manufacturers to increase capacity.

The storage constraint is a yuge hurdle. I have to imagine that the coronavirus task force is hard at work assembling a list of facilities with that capability as we speak.


One important question is how long is it effective for.  


spontaneous said:

One important question is how long is it effective for.  

There were 44,000 people enrolled in the Pfizer trial. Pfizer will monitor them for two years to see how long the vaccine lasts. 


yahooyahoo said:

There was a report on 60 Minutes about this vaccine last night.

As mentioned above, it's two shots that have to be taken three weeks apart and it has to be stored at -80 degrees Celsius (on dry ice).  Many places are not capable of proper storage.  It's not an easy thing distribute properly.  

A woman on the show said they are hoping to vaccinate 70% of adults in New Jersey within 6 months, which I thought was extremely optimistic.

And they still only have a fraction of the total doses needed for the U.S.  It's going to take a while to roll this out.

 These statements seem contradictory to me.  How would they vaccinate 70% if there is such a low supply?


sac said:

yahooyahoo said:

There was a report on 60 Minutes about this vaccine last night.

As mentioned above, it's two shots that have to be taken three weeks apart and it has to be stored at -80 degrees Celsius (on dry ice).  Many places are not capable of proper storage.  It's not an easy thing distribute properly.  

A woman on the show said they are hoping to vaccinate 70% of adults in New Jersey within 6 months, which I thought was extremely optimistic.

And they still only have a fraction of the total doses needed for the U.S.  It's going to take a while to roll this out.

 These statements seem contradictory to me.  How would they vaccinate 70% if there is such a low supply?

I should be more specific.  Vaccinate 70% of adults in NJ once the vaccine is available.  The problem is that it won't be widely available until 1) it's approved and 2) they make a lot more vaccine.


I'm going to temper my enthusiasm until I hear from a scientist who isn't affiliated with either Pfizer or BioNtech


yahooyahoo said:

sac said:

yahooyahoo said:

There was a report on 60 Minutes about this vaccine last night.

As mentioned above, it's two shots that have to be taken three weeks apart and it has to be stored at -80 degrees Celsius (on dry ice).  Many places are not capable of proper storage.  It's not an easy thing distribute properly.  

A woman on the show said they are hoping to vaccinate 70% of adults in New Jersey within 6 months, which I thought was extremely optimistic.

And they still only have a fraction of the total doses needed for the U.S.  It's going to take a while to roll this out.

 These statements seem contradictory to me.  How would they vaccinate 70% if there is such a low supply?

I should be more specific.  Vaccinate 70% of adults in NJ once the vaccine is available.  The problem is that it won't be widely available until 1) it's approved and 2) they make a lot more vaccine.

 It doesn't seem likely that this could happen in 6 months.


A year ago, the pace of Covid vaccine development would have seemed like science fiction to people in this field.  I'm hopeful that this can be ramped up rapidly.  


It will be much easier to live like this for 6 more months or even a year if we know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel.  Although we are about broke.


unless they exposed numerous people to the virus, I don't see how they can be so sure that it is 90% effective.  how do we know people just weren't exposed because of masks and social distancing?


jmitw said:

unless they exposed numerous people to the virus, I don't see how they can be so sure that it is 90% effective.  how do we know people just weren't exposed because of masks and social distancing?

 I think we should assume that they know how to run a vaccine study.


Pfizer repudiates administration claim that it's vaccine development was part of operation Warp Speed:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/mike-pence-covid-vaacine-pfizer-b1719698.html


jmitw said:

unless they exposed numerous people to the virus, I don't see how they can be so sure that it is 90% effective.  how do we know people just weren't exposed because of masks and social distancing?

 I believe they do 50/50 vaccines and placebo, double blind, then when a certain number of positive cases are identified they then look to see who was catching it, vaccinated group, placebo group, or both equally.  If they’re saying it’s 90% effective then that would imply that the placebo group was catching it and the vaccinated group was mostly spared.

If they did a small group then using masks, or staying home and just not being exposed, or other mitigating circumstances might be the reason.  But I believe they had approximately 30,000 people in the phase III, so this wasn’t a small group.


drummerboy said:

jmitw said:

unless they exposed numerous people to the virus, I don't see how they can be so sure that it is 90% effective.  how do we know people just weren't exposed because of masks and social distancing?

 I think we should assume that they know how to run a vaccine study.

 i don't, even after FDA approval, problems arise.   so explain how they know its 90%.....what was their method?


its circumstantial evidence of effectiveness..just because the non placebo group did 90% better isn't proof


I was mistaken, the study did not have 30,000 people in it.  It had over 43,000 people in it.


Public Citizen says to cool our jets


jmitw said:

its circumstantial evidence of effectiveness..just because the non placebo group did 90% better isn't proof

I have to assume that Pfizer would not publicize this if it could easily be refuted. They're not stupid, nor are they amateurs at this.

If the study turns out to be bogus, they will have done themselves some serious harm.



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