Overnight Wed-Thur rain possibly sleet Feb 5 - 6

As of this morning, Tues Feb 4, I am keeping a close eye on tomorrow night and Thurs morning. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for possible sleet and freezing rain. The models have, for two days, consistently placed the freezing line slightly north and west of Mapso.

So, for the moment, the forecast for us is likely rain, with a possibility of sleet or freezing rain between midnight and 5:00am Thursday morning, then all rain. This is not a heavy rain event. Areas north and west are more likely to see freezing rain or sleet.

However, with the freezing line so close to us we will be keeping an eye on any changes to the forecast.

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Slightly more technical explaination:

There will be a warm air mass in place at about 5,000 feet throughout the night Wed-Thur. The precipitation will not be heavy, and anything falling through it will melt, at least partially. Colder aIr near the ground could cause refreezing, but the models have been fairly consistent in keeping the air temps above freezing here, though barely. With lows today and tomorrow also above freezing, the ground itself should also not cause ice to form on contact. Though rain is the most likely precipitation throughout the night, if the precipitation does not melt completely sleet could mix in. Precipitation is likely to be all rain by 8:00 am.


As of this morning, Feb 5th, forecast for tonight remains about the same. Rain overnight may mix with sleet for a while, returning to all rain by morning. Do not expect rain to be heavy, and do not expect any sleet accumulation here. Do not expect freezing rain or significant ice.


max - just curious - what are the best sites to see snow totals for our area.  I wanted to see how December and January compared with the past few years.


Monthly weather data reports can be run here:

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx

Current snow depth information here:

https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow

My daily reports are archived here (I am station NJ-ES-18):

https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx




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